The Tight Supply Of PX Will Continue Until Mid July.

"The tight supply structure of PX market will continue to the middle of July. After the new capacity is put into operation, the price of PX will fall down, and the PTA market will be more in the middle of July, followed by PX." Chen Bo, manager of R & D Management Department of Shanghai financial energy think tank Energy Technology Co., Ltd., made the above statement by the PTA forum, which was jointly organized by Zhengzhou commodity exchange and sinofex futures bank.

From a basic point of view, from 3 to April, the PTA plant was shut down and overhauled, and the total stock of society was reduced to a historical low level, laying the foreshadowing for the rebound in May. In addition, the market for the three giants alliance, the Iraqi civil war and PX Structural supply Tight speculation has also boosted PTA. Price The sharp rise.

According to the futures Daily reporter, at present, the profit of PX manufacturers is improving, Sinopec system or increasing operating rate, the possibility of new Korean line put into production is increasing. Qingdao Li Dong 1 million ton PX plant will be restarted in mid 7, and domestic PX output will reach a new high in August. South Korea's other two new lines, 2 million 300 thousand tons of PX devices, will open in mid July, and after mid July, Asian PX will recover to more than 80%.

" PX After the structural supply is tight, if the new capacity goes smoothly, PX will experience a sharp fall after rapid growth. Chen Bo said that the starting point of PX's rise was US $1250 / ton, when PX was basically guaranteed; if the supply in the three quarter was restored to the early stage, the price of PX would fall back to its starting point; the low point of PX would be US $1150 / ton, when PX lost 100 US dollars / ton. If the supply of PX continued to increase in the four quarter, the price of PX would fall to 1150 US dollars / ton.

At present, PTA inventory is on the low side. "Even if the operating rate increased from 7 to August, the inventory accumulated, but it was still in a low historical position. According to the PX price of US $1450 / ton, the PTA contract price in July will be between 7700 yuan and 7900 yuan per ton. Taking into account the increase in contract supply in September and the expectation of weaker PX in the late period, the futures discount will be 200 yuan / ton, and the PTA futures main contract 1409 contract high or 7500 to 7700 yuan / ton. Chen Bo analyzed.

On the operation, she suggested that investors can choose the main 1409 contract in the second half of the year (the main force will change month), with a high level of 7500 to 7700 yuan / ton. The short contract can choose 1501 contracts. According to the expected PX price, it is estimated that the three quarter or the first interval will be 6500 to 6700 yuan / ton, and the fourth quarter or second interval 6000 to 6200 yuan / ton. 1409 the difference between the contract and the 1501 contract always includes the expectation of the increase in supply, and the price difference will maintain a high oscillation pattern.