PTA Is Still Supported By Limited Production In The Short Term.

　　 Supply and demand pattern Gradual change

This year, China's PTA production capacity is expected to reach 14 million 250 thousand tons, with capacity growth of 31.1%, while polyester production growth is only 7%. In anticipation of the rapid growth of PTA production capacity and the large-scale downtime of the downstream factories during the Spring Festival period, the price of PTA fell by 15.9% in the early part of the year to the middle of March, and the PTA factory was in deep distress. The PX factory with better profit has also been defeated.

In order to improve profits, in mid March, PX and PTA factories concentrated production reduction, and coincided with the "gold, three silver four" demand peak season downstream, the industrial chain went through a wave of stock market. In May, PX production in Asia increased and cost end support increased. At the same time, the three big PTA factories agreed that the load should be controlled below 70%, and the polyester plant will maintain a long-term load of over 75% due to better profits. This makes the PTA market with overcapacity in the short supply tense.

After nearly 4 months Destocking After that, domestic PTA inventories were reduced from 2 million 320 thousand tons during the Spring Festival to 1 million 240 thousand tons. In addition, the exchange warehouse receipts have been thoroughly digested, from 78 thousand in the middle of March to 2433 at present, only 1/32 of the peak period.

However, the price of PX rose rapidly in the middle of 6. The profit brought by the reduction was consumed by the PX link, and the profits of PTA factory were still to be repaired. At present, the domestic PTA load has dropped to a historical low of 55%. Yisheng Ningbo 4 million 200 thousand tons of equipment dropped to 80%, Hengli Dalian 2 million 200 thousand tons and Honggang Petrochemical 1 million 500 thousand tons of equipment temporary parking, Zhuhai BP110 million tons plant plans to stop in late July. In the later stage, with the restart of some devices, the PTA load will increase slightly. However, from the PTA alliance load control situation, the situation of PTA low load and low inventory will continue after obtaining stable profits.

　　 Cost side pressure

Because the device is closed and new capacity Postponed production, Asian PX market in July tight supply, PX prices rose sharply, significantly higher than the PTA increase. Especially in the middle and late 6 months, PX rose by 11.2%, while PTA's spot and futures rose only 4.8%, and industrial chain profits moved upstream. PX - naphtha oil price difference climbed from $200 / ton in early May to US $480 / ton, and PX factory profit reached US $230 / ton (according to the 250 dollar / ton profit and loss balance calculation), the best level since this year.

Despite tight supply in the short term, the market is expected to increase the supply of PX in the coming month as the production plan date approaches, and the cargo discount will reach 20 to 30 US dollars / ton in August. Under the influence of a series of factors, such as the expected increase in supply, the failure of ACP negotiations, the price discount in the far months, and the extension of PX market, PX fell by 109 US dollars / ton to 1382 US dollars / ton CFR in the first three trading days in July, and the cost of PTA was reduced from 8000 yuan / ton to 7500 yuan / ton.

At present, the domestic PX load has risen from 63% in early June to 75%, and Qingdao Li Dong also plans to restart in mid July. In addition, in August, 1 million 350 thousand tons of PX devices were restarted in Asia, and another 4 million tons of PX new products were put into operation from mid July to August. At that time, the focus of the cost side will continue to move downward.

　　 Downstream price transmission is not optimistic.

With the strong rebound in raw material prices, the cost pressures of terminal enterprises increased significantly, and in July, the downstream and terminal consumption slack season, some of the bomb factories began to shut down due to poor demand and cash flow conditions, and weaving enterprises began to accumulate inventory due to reduced orders. The polyester load and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped from 82% and 74% in May to 73% and 68% respectively, and the stock of polyester products in the past 3 weeks continued to rise slightly. The transition of terminal demand is becoming more and more difficult, resulting in the difficulty of transferring cost to downstream.

The PTA market still maintains a low load and low inventory pattern. The tight supply situation is difficult to change in the short term, and PTA futures will continue to oscillate strongly. However, in the medium term, the restart of Asian PX devices and the release of new capacity will gradually expose the hidden troubles of low cost, and the weakening of downstream demand will also lead to the obstruction of price transmission path and further drag on the PTA price.