Industry Experts Comprehensively Analyze The Hidden Worries Behind Strong Export Data.

Behind the strong data, the author has to pay attention to the following three facts: import is still weak, overseas economic uncertainty is increasing and labor costs are rising. In addition, the trade surplus in August has reached a new high. Probably Increase the pressure of RMB (6.1312, 0.0028, 0.05%) appreciation. The author believes that the directional interest rate reduction is necessary.

China's exports exceeded expectations in August, which is beneficial to the current weak economic growth. However, behind the strong data, the author has to pay attention to the following three facts: import is still weak, overseas economic uncertainty is increasing and labor costs are rising. In addition, the trade surplus in August has reached a new high, which may increase the pressure of RMB appreciation. It is expected that the value of the yuan will be 6.05 against the US dollar before the end of the year. Under the three worries, the author thinks that it is necessary to reduce the interest rate.

　　 specific China's exports grew by 9.4% over the same period in August, down from 14.5% in July. Meanwhile, import accident negative growth continued to decline 2.3% compared with the same period last year, lower than that of -1.6% in July. The result of "strong exports and weak imports" was that the trade surplus of the month expanded from US $473 in July to US $49 billion 800 million, creating a new record high and increasing the pressure of RMB appreciation.

Although the recent improvement in foreign trade can help steady growth, I should be cautious about the future trade prospects in light of the following three facts:

First, the continued decline in import growth indicates that domestic demand is still weak. In August, the import volume of coal decreased by 27.3% compared with the same period last year. The amount of imports declined more sharply with the sum of money, compared with -41.2% in August. By contrast, the import volume of iron ore has increased, but behind the sharp drop in prices, the strategy of machine import is related. In August, iron ore imports increased by 8.5% over the same period last year, but the amount of iron ore imports fell by 17.1% over the same period last year.

Not only commodities Imported In August, imports of mechanical and electrical products also slowed down, and imports grew from 2.6% in July to 0.3%. The decline in imports of high-tech products further expanded from -1.2% in July to -2.6%. The decline in imports shows a weak domestic demand.

Combined with the weak domestic investment and consumption data, I believe that further policy support is necessary. As Ma Kai, vice premier of the State Council, said in his research in Jiangsu on the 5 th of this month, alleviating the high cost of financing is of great significance for the current steady growth, restructuring, promoting reform and improving people's livelihood. Taking into account the limited amount of agriculture loans and the role of growth is not obvious, the future direction of interest rates to continue to expand the scope of small and medium enterprises, and even the first suite loans are necessary.

Second, overseas economic uncertainty increases, exports are strong or unsustainable. In terms of export destinations, China's exports to the United States in August were still relatively strong, up from 11.4% in July to 12.3% in August. However, exports to the EU weakened in August, an increase of 12.5% over the same period last year, down 4.5 percentage points from 17% in July. Exports to Japan and Hongkong were more pessimistic, -3.1% and 2.1% respectively, while the two growth in July was 2.9% and 13.3% respectively. Exports to emerging markets are still good. In August, China's exports to ASEAN increased from 11.9% in July to 13%, while exports to Russia increased from 15.1% in July to 27.1%, and exports to India increased from 11.1% to 23.6%.

However, the recent overseas economic situation has increased the author's concern about the sustainability of exports. In fact, in August, the leading index of export announced by the General Administration of Customs dropped to 41.9 from 42.6 in July. The new PMI export index of manufacturing industry dropped sharply, and the leading index was not optimistic. From the perspective of overseas economy, the US labor market is good and bad. The euro area is facing deflationary pressure and geopolitical risks in Ukraine. The author believes that China's exports to Europe are still uncertain. It is expected that China's exports to Europe will be under pressure for the two major export projects in Europe in the coming months.

Third, export of labor-intensive products is still the main force of growth, and exports are under the pressure of spanformation. The main driving force for export recovery in August was labor-intensive products, for example, clothing exports increased by 10.3% over the same period last year, and maintained a 11.9% high level in July. Textile exports increased by 6.1% over the same period last year, 0.6 percentage points higher than in July, and furniture exports grew 16.6%, up 7.3 percentage points over July. In contrast, exports of mechanical and electrical products slowed down, and exports grew by 5.2% in August, 7.4 percentage points lower than in July, and exports of new and high technology products dropped 1.2% compared to the same period last year.

As we all know, due to the arrival of Lewis turning point in China, the domestic labor wages have risen sharply in recent years, which has caused many challenges to China's competitiveness in the past relying on export of labor-intensive products, and also forced China to upgrade its export structure. Therefore, I believe that the situation of over reliance on labor-intensive products exports is not sustainable, and the challenges of future spanformation and upgrading are still not small.