When The Crisis Comes, We Can See That Trade Protection Is Firmly Guarded.

When people stop talking about the stock market and property prices in tea tables and chatting online, they are almost always the time for the financial crisis to deepen and to turn to the economic crisis.

The economic crisis means that most individuals and families have reduced their income sources and their living expenses have become more cautious.

However, at this time, the economists' suggestions and the government's will stimulate people to increase their consumption, and the final result is probably far below the expectations of economists and the government.

When the economy is booming, both personal and family, or a country and region, wealth expectations are rising and rising, and exchange and cooperation between them will not be very particular.

But when faced with a serious economic crisis, pessimism and prudence and conservatism permeate every corner, no country or regional economy will become more and more calculating.

As the result of political competition and the balance of political structure, people in power are deeply aware that politics is the concentrated expression of the economy. If we can not ensure the economic interests of our country or region, we will not have the protection of its ruling status.

That is why the economy may be globalized, but politics is first and foremost a state, and then it can be bilateral or multilateral.

Therefore, whether from an economic point of view or for political needs and pressures, the opening up of various economies will be greatly reduced after the outbreak of the economic crisis, and trade protectionism will become more common and serious than the period of economic prosperity.

In the modern market economy, the economic crisis is characterized by the relative surplus of production and the relatively weak market demand. At this time, the goal of all economic policies is nothing more than how to absorb excess capacity and make all kinds of productive factors achieve the full employment of Keynes economics so as to get out of the crisis.

So, which government does not first use its weak market to absorb the excess capacity of the economy?

In particular, when the huge current and future costs are consumed, the market demand raised by implementing a series of fiscal and monetary policies will not be easy to digest the surplus capacity of other economies first.

Moreover, during this period there are enormous political pressures from all sides of the economy.

At this time, all kinds of trade and non trade barriers are becoming more stringent. Is it not strange?

If it is the economic crisis in a traditional society characterized by shortage of commodities, the rising market demand has led to intolerable inflation. The specific economy has strong import demand for other economies, but economies are likely to impose strict restrictions on their exports.

For example, in 2007 and the first half of 2008, some economies restricted food exports.

But at this time, no matter how the government implements trade restrictive policy, producers and exporters still have certain export tendency as long as the price is higher than the local level.

Only under the modern excess economic crisis, producers and governments have the same strong tendency to exclude imports.

The basic characteristics of the modern market economy are that the scope of the commodity exchange is strong enough to extend the economy to globalization.

However, when the market demand can not keep pace with the expansion of capacity, or the market demand suddenly falls sharply, the market will suddenly cut apart and guard against each other, and the atmosphere of trade protectionism is strong, leading to the phenomenon of "de globalization".

The problem is that, as in the past 30 years, developed economies have reconfigured their global industrial chains through pnational corporations and through a large amount of direct investment in emerging market economies. The emerging market economies have penetrated into developed economies through fast growing exports, which has made the global economic ties wider and closer than any other era in history.

Therefore, when a serious economic crisis is going on, it may be effective to let trade protectionism spread, but it will not help the economies to get rid of the crisis as soon as possible.

This common economic pressure will inevitably compel governments to go to the multilateral round table on purpose or reluctance to seek solutions to the economic difficulties through competition and compromise among major political forces worldwide.

This may be the final solution to all serious economic crises, including the current crisis, which have to be followed.

This shows that no matter what is currently worsening crisis or the possible economic crisis in the future, we should first face up to the fact that the rise of trade protectionism over a period of time is impossible to avoid.

And when the escalating protectionism can not effectively get rid of the crisis of individual economies, it will eventually have to rely on the global multilateral political coordination mechanism.

This means that China, as a newly developing market economy country, relies heavily on export driven economic growth for a period of time. It is still a realistic choice for a period of time. Even if this economic crisis shows the great fragility of this choice and the great necessity of proper adjustment, it is impossible to give up substantially. Therefore, in coping with the current economic crisis, China should first maintain its appropriate flexibility in its import and export policy when deciding policies, and it must be hesitant to protect the local market for a period of time.

Secondly, we must not have illusions about the trade policies of the developed economies, and we must consider as much as possible the measures to enhance our national interests.

Third, as an emerging market economy, all walks of life in China should take a clear-cut stand against trade protectionism in various bilateral and multilateral international situations, and firmly advocate and advocate trade liberalism.

Finally, we must actively and appropriately participate in various bilateral and multilateral political consultations, and strive to enhance the right to speak and participate in the adjustment and reform of the existing international political and economic organizations and the establishment of a new international political and economic order.

If we can recognize and respond to the current economic crisis with this attitude and strategy, we can not only reduce the impact of the global crisis on China's economy as much as possible, but also help to curb the deterioration of the global crisis.

After all, ensuring sustained and steady economic growth in the world's most populous countries is a major contribution to global political stability and harmony.

Wang Xiaonan