The Central Bank Responded To Concerns About A Slow Increase In Foreign Exchange Holdings. The Monetary Policy Orientation In The Second Half Of This Year Has Not Changed.

Here world clothing shoes The Xiaobian of the hat net is to introduce the central bank's response to the slow increase of foreign exchange reserves, PSL and other tools.

"Now as the situation changes, the way of regulation will also change."

In July 15th, Sheng Songcheng, director of the investigation and Statistics Division of the people's Bank of China, said at the briefing of the central bank that the loan grew faster and the credit structure improved significantly in the first half of the year.

He said that the stable monetary policy orientation in the second half of this year has not changed. Our country may conduct an open market operation in a multi pronged way. The central bank is exploring the PSL (mortgage supplementary loan), which is also a reloan. And interest rate liberalization "no bow at all," which requires a variety of means to control interest rates, one of which is PSL.

According to the data released by the central bank on the same day, RMB loans increased by 5 trillion and 740 billion yuan in the first half of this year, of which 1 trillion and 80 billion yuan increased in June, an increase of 216 billion 500 million yuan compared with the same period last year.

Sheng Songcheng said that structural improvement is mainly reflected in the "five growth" and "one fall". Among them, Sheng song emphasized the improvement of the loan structure of small and micro enterprises. Speaking from the balance, the balance of small and micro enterprises accounts for 29.3% of the loans of all enterprises, up 0.7% from the same period last year. From the incremental perspective, the new loans of small and micro enterprises account for 32.5% of the new loans of enterprises, an increase of 2% over the first quarter, which is 3.1% higher than that of new loans for large enterprises.

In addition, the growth rate of medium and long term loans in overcapacity industry has declined, an increase of 6.4% over the same period last year, down 1.1 percentage points from the end of last year. Among them, the steel and building materials industry has seen a negative growth. The balance of the medium and long-term loans in the steel industry has dropped by 8.9% compared with the same period last year, and the building materials industry has dropped by 6%.

　 Dynamic change of control mode: new PSL tool

The latest monthly balance sheet released by the central bank on Monday (July 7th) showed that in May, the central bank's newly increased foreign exchange accounted for only 361 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 99% in the month, reaching a new low of 11 months.

Previously, Central Bank The newly increased foreign exchange quota of the financial institutions in May was 38 billion 665 million yuan, which also narrowed sharply compared with the 116 billion 921 million yuan in April, and the lowest level since August 2013. This triggered concern about the central bank's monetary base supply.

In this regard, Sheng song 15, a detailed interpretation. He first explained what is "foreign exchange occupation", that is, the central bank's holdings of foreign exchange and the renminbi funds, that is, for the sake of economic development and macroeconomic regulation and control, the central bank buys foreign exchange and throws renminbi, thus occupying assets priced by the people. At present, foreign exchange accounts for 27 trillion and 200 billion, accounting for 97% of the basic currency.

"During the 2005-2008 years, during the substantial increase in China's foreign exchange holdings, there are the following data: in 2005, foreign exchange increased by 1 trillion and 700 billion yuan, which increased by 3 trillion and 400 billion in 2008. After 2009, the growth rate fluctuated. In 2012, foreign exchange accounted for the smallest increment, only 428 billion 100 million, which increased by about 700000000000 in the first half of this year. Sheng Songcheng introduced in detail the change of foreign exchange in recent ten years. He pointed out that there are a series of factors that affect the foreign exchange occupation. The reasons for the most weight are: trade surplus and foreign direct investment.

"These two items increased faster in 2005 -2008." Sheng said, there is also a factor which is easy to ignore. That is, "foreign exchange is the foreign currency bought by the people's Bank of China, but if foreign exchange is not in the hands of the central bank, but on the hands of individuals and other financial institutions, this is not foreign exchange."

In May this year, for example, the central bank increased its foreign exchange reserves by only 361 million, but foreign exchange held by financial institutions increased by about 38600000000.

"Generally speaking, our foreign exchange holdings are decreasing. Since March 17th this year, the central bank has announced that the floating rate of RMB to us dollar exchange rate in interbank spot foreign exchange market will be expanded to 2%. This has a great impact on the market. " Sheng song Cheng said that if anyone understood this as a reduction in the intervention of the central bank in the foreign exchange market, he did not object to it, which just showed that the central bank's market regulation has been moving forward.

In response to the concerns of the market, Sheng sung Cheng said that "the problem of basic money supply will not be caused by the decline in foreign exchange growth." He said that over the past decade or so, foreign exchange reserves have increased gradually after the increase in foreign reserves. Now, with the change of circumstances, the way of regulation will also change.

"We can conduct open market operations in the future. In the US, the basic money supply in the US is mainly through open market operations, such as holding treasury bonds. Our country may conduct an open market operation in a multi pronged way. For PSL, the central bank is also exploring research, which is also a reloan. Sheng sung Cheng said.

Most of the central bank's basic money supply came from foreign exchange. In May, foreign exchange holdings were reduced. Wind showed that the central bank's net investment in the open market reached 164 billion yuan this month, which is obviously higher than that in the previous months. At the China US strategic and economic dialogue conference, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, has publicly stated that the central bank is preparing to use short-term and medium-term policy tools to guide interest rates, preparing two or three policy instruments, and mentioned that new tools will require collateral.

At present, the central bank has no specific information about PSL. Guoxin Securities Research Report Analysis, PSL launched the background is the transformation of basic money supply channels and the lack of qualified collateral. Guoxin speculated that the biggest breakthrough of this tool is to incorporate commercial bank loans into the framework of eligible collateral for basic currency, thereby eliminating the credit risk problem of refinancing and creating a regular base money supply channel.

　 "Stable monetary policy orientation has not changed".

Another major concern of the central bank's statistics in the first half of the year was RMB deposits increased by 3 trillion and 790 billion yuan in June, an increase of more than 2 trillion and 190 billion yuan over the same period last year. This is at the second highest level in history, second only to March 2013.

"The sharp rise in deposits has also directly pushed up the growth rate of M2. In June, the M2 growth rate was 14.7%, slightly higher than market expectations. Chen Jianheng, managing director of CIC's fixed income research, pointed out that the sharp rise in deposits was mainly due to the accelerated credit injection, the increase in loans derived from deposits, the increase in margin deposits, the seasonal return of bank financing and the issuance of Financial deposits.

CITIC Securities report also pointed out that multiple signs have shown that the central bank's price type monetary easing is gradually increasing. This confirms the wording of "flexible use of various monetary policy tools" in the two quarter monetary policy meetings, and the market began to note that the central bank's monetary policy has formed the basic framework of "flexible interest rate Corridors Plus medium-term policy interest rates". The concept of PSL is expected to become a medium-term policy interest rate instrument to be launched by the central bank.

Scholars who are close to the regulatory level explain that the so-called medium-term policy interest rate can affect the financial institutions' balance sheets and market expectations by adjusting the cost of medium-term financing to financial institutions, and guide their orientation to inject low cost liquidity into the real economy sector. However, PSL needs to reach a certain scale before it can act on bank balance sheets and market expectations.

As for whether the next step will expand the scope of reduction, Mr Sheng said that monetary policy is moving towards normal and local adjustment is only an auxiliary means. He believes that monetary policy can not be directed to reduce the accuracy of the main, this is only "precise force and micro stimulation."

"The stable monetary policy orientation in the second half of this year has not changed. The key now is to adjust the credit structure and revitalize the stock rather than simply pursue the relaxation of total volume. The excess reserve rate in May is about 1.87, indicating that the liquidity of the entire banking system is still quite abundant. Sheng song Cheng said that directional reduction is also a tool for structural adjustment.

Sheng Songcheng also said that Interest rate market The most fundamental goal is to achieve reasonable allocation of funds. The interest rate adjustment in this process requires a variety of means to control interest rates, one of which is PSL.