What Impact Will The "Vacuum Period" Of Cotton Market Bring To Cotton Market?

Here world Clothing and shoes Xiaobian of the network to introduce to you is "vacuum period" cotton city how to deduce?

The current sale of reserve cotton will come to an end in late August. At this time, it will take time for new cotton to go on sale. What will be the impact of the "vacuum" caused by the supply of new cotton to cotton market?

First, look at Zheng Mian's performance. In recent months, Zheng cotton's contract CF1409 has been oscillating over a narrow range of 17000 yuan / ton. The interval of CF1411 is 14900-15100 yuan / ton, and the main contract CF1501 is oscillating at 14000-15000 yuan / ton. Quotations for September, November and January market According to the psychological expectation of cotton market in this period, the price of cotton in September and October is still better than the price of zhengmian.

Look at outer cotton. According to traders, since late August, CIF quotations from outside ports such as Qingdao port, Shanghai port and Zhangjiagang were all at a steady and relatively low level. Some cotton merchants even raised the price of some high-level Australian cotton and West African cotton by 100-150 yuan / ton. In addition, ICE cotton is affected. Textile mill Low price buying support, prices rebounded from 62 cents / pound to 66 cents / pound, some large cotton merchants outside the cotton dollar quote took the opportunity to rebound, indicating that the market for China's 9-10 month market view much.

According to one industry analysis, the existence of "vacuum period" has little impact on Dachang, and small factories will face the awkward situation of not buying cotton when they buy with them. According to some small and medium-sized textile enterprises, they are ready to make preparations. One is to use imported cotton quotas to purchase cotton in 9-10 months, two is planned, 40% is completely customs clearance, and other enterprises are planning to spend high prices on quota clearance. At present, the quota market price is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, which has declined slightly compared with the previous period, and many cotton mills say this price is acceptable.

I believe that the 9-10 month cotton market or stable oscillation in the narrow range, but in the long run, there is still a big possibility of the decline of cotton. After a large number of new cotton market, domestic cotton fell to 14000-15000 yuan / ton is a big probability event, inside and outside cotton The price difference will shrink, and the advantage of outer cotton will be greatly reduced. Therefore, the possibility of Cotton falling and Cotton falling will be very large. There is even an analysis that, after the new year, cotton may fall below 60 cents per pound, and then the national cotton price will be pushed to 10000 yuan / ton line. As for how the future market will be interpreted, I remind the industry highly concerned about the trend of cotton and China's target price rules.