Chief Economist On Macro Economy

China's chief economist forum was held in Beijing.

The theme of this forum is "the new normal and steady growth", and the chief economists of major brokerages have their sword, especially on some focus issues.

This year's economic growth is relatively optimistic and relatively pessimistic.

Gao believed that 7.5% had no worries, and the lowest was 7%.

Nevertheless, this year's economy is generally going on without much anxiety.

It is next year, next year, the next period of time, what will China's economy do? Whether the real estate downturn is allowed to follow? Will the central bank's monetary policy continue to tighten? How to understand the new normal, whether reform and development are antagonistic or mutually reinforcing in the new normal?

Xia Bin, a counselor of the State Council, presided over the meeting. He thought the economic downturn was reasonable. GDP growth rate was low, but it had to guard against financial risks and stabilize employment.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, believes that there are many policies for steady growth, but the main problem is how to link financial policies with policies.

Therefore, in maintaining the total amount of monetary policy, monetary policy should adhere to structural policy adjustment and reduce the blockage in the process of financial pmission.

The rapid decline of real estate is the focus of attention.

Chief economist of Mizuho Securities

It is believed that the economic data since the three quarter are far below market expectations. If this trend continues, it is hard to achieve steady growth targets throughout the year.

In his view, confidence is important, and long-term reform also needs continuous progress, but action is also crucial, and short-term growth can not be ignored.

If macroeconomic regulation continues to delay, the possibility of economic growth breaking 7 will be greatly increased.

This may trigger the deep adjustment of real estate and trigger financial turbulence.

He recommends that the current launch is only right.

Targeted interest rate cuts and the role of targeted reduction are still limited. The new round of reduction and reduction of interest rates is urgent, especially for the first set of mortgage loans.

Only in this way can we seize the opportunity and prevent the hard landing of the economy.

He had similar views as well as Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Xingye securities.

He said he would lift the real estate purchase restriction policy, devalue the currency, abolish the loan to deposit ratio as soon as possible, break the rigid payment, and continue to promote the development of large deposit certificates and other bond financing instruments.

Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, believes that in view of the relatively large proportion of real estate investment and the development of multiple industrial chains, we must stabilize the real estate industry.

From this perspective, I believe that more real estate relaxation measures and monetary policy support measures for real estate sales will be introduced.

Liu Yuhui, chief economist of GF Securities, is more optimistic.

He believes that the structuring of monetary policy is not a long-term institutional arrangement, but a long-term reform.

The central bank uses structured monetary policy or directional finance to support the real economy, to some extent, a rational choice under the new normal.

This is a pitional arrangement in the pitional period. In the future, with the advance and expansion of various institutional reforms, such as the reform of fiscal and taxation systems, and the re adjustment of the interests of the central and local governments, the effect of the central line is very clear.

Senior economist of Huatai Securities

From the perspective of supply and demand, it is considered that the most important thing is the slowdown of aggregate supply growth, that is, the left side of the aggregate supply curve.

The weakness of aggregate demand is a long-term phenomenon throughout this year. However, the contraction of total supply is a unique phenomenon that just emerged in August.

The adjustment of aggregate demand can be relatively fast, but the adjustment of total supply is generally relatively slow.

Experts agreed that reform is the biggest dividend for China's economy.

Reform can only be carried out on the basis of relative economic stability.

The reform will slow down the pace of economic development in the short term, but it will benefit the healthy development of the economy in the long run.

The two are complementary and win-win.