More And More Forces Dominate The RMB Exchange Rate In The Short And Medium Term

Analysts pointed out that comprehensive China's economic fundamentals are stable, market participants generally have better expectations for various micro stimulus policies, and the US dollar index continues to rise or become volatile. In the short and medium term, many forces will continue to dominate the trend of the RMB, and the strong operation pattern of the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue.

　　 Dollar rally

The international exchange market ushered in an important risk event at the beginning of the four quarter on Thursday morning, Beijing time. The latest FOMC meeting September shows that the Federal Reserve believes that the global economic slowdown is one of the most important risks facing the US economic outlook. Fed officials have expressed a clear concern that the strong performance of the US dollar may have an adverse impact on US economic growth. In the market oriented interest rate policy forward-looking guidance, the Fed stressed that forward-looking guidance is dependent on data. Interest rates are not mechanical or fixed with dates. As the policy meeting was unexpectedly biased towards doves, the US dollar index was suppressed, which declined significantly from the 86 point high, closing to a low level of nearly two weeks near 85.20.

RMB exchange rate, as a result of dollar The rally is showing signs of "fading away". On Thursday, the RMB exchange rate and the spot exchange rate strengthened again. According to the foreign exchange trading center, in October 9th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1461, which was 32 basis points higher than the previous trading day. At this point, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar strengthened continuously in the first two trading days of the four quarter.

9 days on schedule foreign exchange On the market, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is relatively stronger. On the same day, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was 60 basis points higher than 6.1330, the highest breaking through the 6.13 integer pass to 6.1298, eventually closing at 6.1305, up 85 basis points from the previous trading day. On September 30th, before the National Day holiday, the RMB spot rate was recorded for third consecutive trading days. In addition, from the performance of Hongkong RMB CNH exchange rate and overseas RMB non principal forward foreign exchange (NDF) forward exchange rate, the exchange rate of RMB yesterday showed a strong trend.

　　 RMB Strong foundation remains stable

Since mid July, with the strengthening of the US dollar, the global emerging market currencies led by Russia's rouble are facing strong devaluation pressures. This week Russia's ruble hit a record low against the US dollar. At the same time, although the renminbi did not show significant appreciation, it still dominated by strong shocks and slight appreciation, and once again showed its unique characteristics.

Analysts pointed out that from the internal and external environment, in the long term, the strength of the RMB base is still very stable, and more trading forces are expected to continue to dominate the RMB exchange rate in the short term trend.

In the direction of China's economic development, Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities (600030, stock bar) and other institutions believe that from the latest 9 months in the PMI, HSBC PMI and other economic indicators, the real economy is generally stabilized, and the early economic slowdown has been alleviated. Taking into account the delayed effect of the policy stimulus effect, it is expected that August will become a low growth point for the whole year, and the overall economy in the future is expected to steadily improve. In addition, the market is also optimistic about the September trade figures to be released next Monday (October 13th).

In the short and medium term trend of the external dollar, before the release of the Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday, the analysts of CITIC Securities and other analysts believed that the low US employment rate index would correct the over optimism of the market for the recovery process of the US labor market, thereby easing the anticipation of the Fed's early interest rate hike. In conjunction with the latest minutes of the Fed meeting, the Fed's decision to raise interest rates for the first time in the first half of 2015 is likely to fail, which is not enough to support the US dollar index rising to a high level in the medium term. In addition, foreign exchange analyst Yi Xin also said on Thursday that the US dollar index is good in the medium and long term, but after months of rising, given that there is no significant data release in the short term, the US dollar may continue to adjust in the short term.

Overall, analysts believe that even before the dollar index rally, such as the rainbow did not shake the strength of the RMB exchange rate, and in the context of a possible rebound in the non US currency, it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will remain strong in the medium and short term.