Textile And Garment Industry Report In The 4 Quarter Of 2014: The Process Of Enterprise Pformation Will Accept Phase Test At The End Of The Year

In the process of economic downturn, the consumption of textile and clothing has been declining under the impact of the electricity supplier and foreign brands. At the enterprise level, the pformation is painful and tortuous, and the new business model is still in the process of exploration. Spinning and clothing manufacturing: due to the low consumption of domestic spinning and clothing and insufficient demand, and because of the rising cost, the export orders are hard to keep rising. The overall order of the manufacturing industry depends on the stabilization of domestic demand.

Textile raw materials: in the process of demand bottom finding, the drawback of national high price collection and storage in the past three years is obvious. At the same time, domestic and foreign cotton futures have plummeted under the situation of insufficient supply demand, and the raw material prices of cotton are also in the bottom finding process. 9, after the listing of new cotton, the spot cotton flower has fallen rapidly, and domestic and foreign cotton futures prices have continued to plummet.

The annual cotton price of the 14/15 cotton will determine to a certain extent the cotton price fluctuation range for a long time.

We still tend to think that the spot price of 14000-16000 yuan is more likely.

Facing the industry plight and the division of enterprises, many enterprises are seeking to break through the pformation: with the rising labor costs, the golden age of textile manufacturing and raw materials is always over. The pformation of manufacturing and raw material enterprises is more likely to be cross industry restructuring and mergers and acquisitions.

Therefore, it is entirely possible for the original brand to acquire other brands through capital advantage. The key to the success of brand merger is integration.

Since then, the market has been looking forward to the pformation and reorganization of enterprises, mergers and acquisitions, but it is really conducive to the development of enterprises less, good targets can not be met.

At the end of the year, the possibility of phased testing can not be ignored.

Investment strategy: continue to focus on manufacturing leading enterprises, the market has made a relatively full response to the decline in the performance of textile and clothing consumption, and pay close attention to the strategy of early adjustment, focusing on product quality brand enterprises.

The industry integration effect is relatively obvious. It is suggested that attention should be paid to Lu Tai, Hua Fu color spinning and so on. In the short and medium term, after the sharp fall, the future consumer enterprises may rebound continuously. In the medium and long term, products instead of channels and marketing become the core of the enterprises, and the pformation is inevitable.

Investment target: we suggest paying attention to Taihe new material, Semir, Lu Tai, fuanna, seven wolves and other stocks. There are rebounding opportunities for the leading enterprises such as wedding birds, nine herding kings, AOKANG and so on.

As of the 3 quarter of September 24th, textile and clothing and chemical fiber plates recorded a 27.48% gain, outperforming the big market (Shenzhen index 10.31%), and excess earnings 14.70% (Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 300) 12.78%, of which the textile home textile sub sector rose 28.26%, and the textile manufacturing sub sector rose 26.66%.

In terms of stocks, cross sector mergers and acquisitions, SOE reform and other stocks are popular. Only a few stock prices have been cut this quarter.

The textile and garment industry is still in the bottom finding process, making it possible for the business performance to continue to decline.

The capital market may underestimate the difficulty and process of changing the profit model of the industry.

The balance sheet and cash flow statement of spinning and weaving enterprises reflect that enterprises are generally contracting and trying to pform, but the intensity of repair is still insufficient.