Cotton Planting Pattern Facing Major

The US Department of Agriculture said in September that India will surpass China as the world's largest cotton producer this year, marking the end of China's leading position in the global cotton market.

In the autumn of October, cotton Harvest is coming, but the atmosphere of the cotton market is somewhat different from previous years. Cotton prices have dropped to freezing point, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, cotton enterprises have not yet started to scale up, and all aspects of the industrial chain are waiting.

Replacing the temporary purchase and storage policy with the target price subsidy pilot, the intention is to make the cotton price marketization and narrow the price gap between inside and outside. Can this measure achieve the desired results? Will the mainland cotton producing areas that have not yet implemented the target price subsidies suffer losses? How will the domestic cotton industry go in the future? These problems are not clear until the dust settled in the cotton purchasing season in 2014.

There is no doubt that the cotton planting pattern in China is facing a big adjustment.

Area and output "double down"

The reduction of cotton acreage in China has become a recognized fact both at home and abroad. According to a report released by the US Department of agriculture in September, India will surpass China as the world's largest cotton producer this year, marking the end of China's leading position in the global cotton market.

　　 Actual Since 2008, the area of cotton production in various parts of the country has been continuously reported. Cotton production in Shandong Province in 2008 cotton planting area of 13 million 320 thousand mu, down to 12 million mu in 2009, down to 11 million 700 thousand acres in 2010, 2013 for the first time fell below 10 million mu.

Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said at the national cotton working teleconference that according to the China Cotton Association survey, the total cotton planting area was 63 million 400 thousand mu this year, down 9.4% from the previous year. Among them, the cotton growing areas in the Yangtze River Valley and the the Yellow River River Basin were affected by the increase in production costs, the decrease in the comparative benefits of cotton planting, and the cancellation of the temporary storage and purchase policy.

Hebei cotton spring sowing area of 7 million 230 thousand mu, down 16.4% compared with the same period last year; Jiangsu cotton area may fall below 2 million mu for the first time, down by about 20% compared with last year; more than 100 thousand mu of cotton planting County in Jiangxi, such as Pengze and Duchang, reduced by more than 10%, and the number of planting households decreased by nearly 50%.

With the reduction of cotton planting area in China, the total output of cotton has also declined. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, from 2003 to 2013, the cotton area in the the Yellow River River Basin dropped from 2 million 30 thousand tons to 1 million 470 thousand tons, a decrease of 27.5%, and the cotton area in the Yangtze River Basin dropped from 1 million 150 thousand tons to 1 million tons, a decrease of 13%. It is noteworthy that the northwest inland production has undergone a major reversal. The output has increased from 1 million 690 thousand tons to 4 million 490 thousand tons, an increase of 166%. The proportion of the total output of the Northwest has increased from 34% in 2003 to 64% in 2013.

According to the preliminary estimate of the NDRC, the actual output of cotton is about 6 million 500 thousand tons this year, a decrease of 500 thousand tons over the previous year.

Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of rural development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that the output of cotton in the whole country is expected to be reduced by 10% compared with last year, and 20% in the mainland producing areas. The Xinjiang area has remained basically stable.

"The cotton planting area will decrease, and the total output will definitely decrease, but the output is hard to say." Li Fuguang, director of the Cotton Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said: "this year's seasonal drought is more conducive to cotton growth than other water consumption crops."

The reduction of cotton planting area is mainly due to two reasons: high labor costs and falling cotton prices. Huang Jikun, director of the center for agricultural policy research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with "China Science Daily": "cotton is a labor-intensive field crop, and many parts of the country use manual picking to increase labor costs. The decline in cotton prices has also led to a decline in cotton farmers' enthusiasm. "

　　 Interviewed The experts said that cotton prices would drop further after the target price was implemented. According to Li Guoxiang, after the implementation of the target price this year, domestic cotton prices dropped to about 16000 yuan / ton.

Compared with price factors, labor cost is more important.

"All the problems faced by cotton in all parts of the country are relatively low in efficiency." Li Fuguang pointed out that "the economic benefits of cotton itself can still be achieved, but the results are rather poor. The fundamental reason is that the cost of cotton is too high, especially for the labour force. In general, cotton needs about 20 workers, and corn only needs three or four workers. "

Traditional cotton producing areas face transformation

"Cotton is also not planted?" the problem of Lao Hu in the Jingzhou area of Hubei in recent two years is very common in cotton growers in the cotton producing areas in the mainland.

"In the first half of this year, there was a lot of rain and cotton was not growing well. No one has come to buy it in October. I heard that the price has been reduced to 5 yuan a kilogram. Lao Hu said very dismayed that in previous years, when the price was high, it had risen to 14 yuan / kg. Last year, he thought the price of cotton was low and he did not sell it on hand.

Obviously, after the introduction of the target price, cotton textile enterprises also have a wait-and-see attitude. Media reports in Jiangsu, Shandong and other places reported that the local cotton spinning enterprises had delayed about one month earlier than usual.

Cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, and the cotton market has no market price. The result is likely to be concentrated sales, resulting in lower cotton prices.

Li Guoxiang pointed out that Xinjiang target price subsidies, according to the total cotton yield and difference price subsidies, 60% of which was issued according to the cotton planting area, and 40% was released according to the actual seed cotton sale volume. The average price will be released at the end of November, and the sales volume will undoubtedly affect the subsidy that cotton farmers get. Therefore, "cotton farmers are advised to sell them in batches and not put eggs in one basket".

In the mainland cotton producing areas where target price subsidies have not yet been implemented, the abolition of temporary purchase and storage means that the farmers in the mainland should completely adjust their production according to the market.

"Farmers are faced with a choice. If we ignore the market and blindly plant cotton, we will lose a lot." Li Guoxiang said, "we need to raise farmers' awareness of market risks and strengthen market risk management."

Take the cotton production area of Lao Hu as an example, aside from manpower, the price of seeds, fertilizers and pesticides has increased in recent years, which has also increased the cost of cotton planting. "Cotton seed price is expensive, dozens of yuan one or two. Because insect resistant cotton only has enough resistance against cotton bollworm, there are many other pests, and it will have to be taken in a few days. Lao Hu told reporters that many people in the village have replanted soybeans.

In fact, many cotton producing areas in the mainland have abandoned cotton to grow grain.

In March of this year, Hubei issued the guiding opinions on the adjustment of cropping structure in cotton producing areas. The cotton industry was faced with the following problems: the cotton industry was faced with the following problems: "to invest more workers, to work hard, to cotton people could not afford to grow, and to put in low efficiency and low cotton prices. The domestic cotton prices were high and the quality was poor, and the enterprises could not afford to use them. The situation that the cotton could not afford to buy and store the cotton was occupied by the big reverse price and the selling price could not be sold" could not afford to rise. It had to cut down the cotton area and transform the crops into four crops.

"The state adjusts the cotton production pattern, and many cotton growers in North China can only consider planting crops and other crops." Huang Jikun said.

Li Guoxiang pointed out that if we can improve the efficiency and efficiency of cotton production, farmers will also consider continuing to grow cotton. "Seeds are more expensive, and if they are used less, they will be rewarded."

In view of transgenic insect resistant cotton "not insect resistant" argument, Li Fuguang said: "transgenic insect resistant cotton this call is actually a bit big. There are more than 100 species of cotton pests, which are seriously endangered. Transgenic insect resistant cotton is effective for Helicoverpa armigera but not for whiteflies, bug bugs and aphids.

At present, transgenic cotton is widely planted in China. "Previous control of Helicoverpa armigera has also eliminated other pests. Now pest resistant cotton has no effect on these pests. To solve the pest problem, first of all, comprehensive prevention and control. Secondly, we need to develop a new type of transgenic cotton. Li Fuguang said.

In addition to seed prices and insect pests, the low degree of mechanization is another disadvantage of the cotton producing areas in the mainland.

"Mainland land is a household, generally three mu, five mu, more dispersed, it is not easy to achieve mechanization. Xinjiang Construction Corps 80% realized mechanization, but the local area did not realize mechanization. Li Fuguang said that the basic elements of modern agriculture are field operations, and that more than 85% of cotton areas in China are not mechanized.

"There is a real problem of land contract in China. Through land circulation, it is OK for a grower to contract dozens of acres. According to Li Fuguang, Cotton Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences is cooperating with the Nanjing Agricultural Mechanization Research Institute, using small equipment to realize the cotton light production and facilitate the cotton field operation of 30 mu and 50 mu scale.

Li Fuguang said that light and simplified production should be promoted in the next 3 to 5 years, and the labor input will be greatly reduced, from about 20 to about 5, thus saving 2/3 employment. "Less cost, more efficiency will go up."

Future pattern: Cotton safety and ecological balance

Although statistics show that the trend of cotton conversion to cotton in the main cotton producing areas is becoming more and more intense, some rural experts believe that the reduction of cotton production will not affect in the short term. However, the long-term development will have a negative impact on the safety of China's cotton industry.

"Over the years, the temporary purchase and storage policy has led to oversupply of domestic cotton, and the main problem now is to go stockpiling. The reduction of cotton production will not cause adverse effects in a short time. " Li Guoxiang said.

Yu Shuxun, academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, pointed out in the future cotton industry layout that "cotton has the characteristics of drought resistance and salt and alkali resistance, and is a pioneer crop. In the future, it should gradually transfer to saline alkali land and dry land, that is, transfer to the eastern coastal saline alkali zone, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia arid and desert beach areas."

Li Fuguang also believes that large-scale mechanized operations are the fundamental way out for cotton in China. It is realistic to transfer cotton production moderately to the western region, but at the same time, cotton cultivation in the mainland can not be abolished. "Now the main body of cotton planting is Xinjiang area, but the cotton production in the western region is limited by water resources, so it is impossible to develop indefinitely. It is difficult to meet the needs of cotton in the West alone. "

Another problem is natural disasters. Li Fuguang said that sometimes there will be cold spring in Xinjiang, and the sudden cooling of cotton during the mature period will cause great harm to cotton. "You can't put your treasure in one place. If we encounter natural disasters year by year, the whole industry will be finished.

Li Fuguang pointed out that for a specific region, it should not only take into account food security, but also consider the ecological balance.

For example, the black dragon harbor area in Hebei province has a large area of land with insufficient groundwater resources. Planting corn and wheat requires large-scale use of underground water, which leads to the decline of groundwater level. However, there is very little ground water for planting cotton. "From the point of view of ecological balance and ecological civilization, cotton in this area should be developed."

Li Fuguang added: "there are millions of acres of saline and alkaline land in two parts of Shandong, Binzhou and Dongying.