Us Weak Inflation Data Triggered An Avalanche Of US Dollar

The US dollar index plunged yesterday, and the US producer price index (PPI) fell unexpectedly in September, the first time since August 2013, which was mainly affected by the energy costs of the recent slump. As one of the forward-looking indicators of inflation, once the inflationary pressure is no longer there, the Fed's policymakers are no longer eager to discuss the issue of raising interest rates, and the market has also cooled the anticipation of the Fed's interest rate hike.

The US retail sales month rate, the core retail sales month rate in September and the September PPI month rate all dropped tonight, leading to the total three major indexes of the US Dow Jones, the S & P and Nasdaq all dived, the US dollar index plummeted to below 85, and COMEX gold stood at 1240 for the first time in September.

Jim Reid, head of global credit strategy at Deutsche Bank, warned in advance that if the US economy is going to decline in the future, the Fed will weigh out a new round of QE after weighing it. Overnight, San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Williams

He said that the asset purchase plan really helped the economy get rid of the 2007-09 recession, and if necessary, he would not hesitate to adopt quantitative easing again. Although the US dollar index fell briefly, the market's risk aversion exceeded the Fed's expectation of postponing interest rate hikes. The dollar is still promising.

Judging from today's market outlook, the Fed's policy trend in the next 12 months will lead to big fluctuations in the market. The Fed's worries about the global economic slowdown and the decline in inflation are not unreasonable. Weak US data eased the pressure on the us to raise interest rates ahead of schedule. At the same time, the weak US data also aggravated the market's worries about the global economic weakness. The risk aversion will permeate the market, and the next market trend or around risk aversion.

From a technical point of view, the dollar fell sharply yesterday, fell below the lower limit of the previous high and low shocks, fell below the 5, 10, and 20 day average closing support, which means that the dollar bull atmosphere weakened, and the bull market increased, and the market outlook would continue to look down for support. Dollar today index The resistance of short-term rise is 85.15 - 85.20, and the short-term resistance is 85.35 - 85.40. The dollar index's support for today's callback is between 84.40 and 84.45, with significant support from 83.75 to 83.80. Euro USD / USD continued to support at 1.2600. Yesterday's sharp rebound temporarily relieved the shorting of the exchange rate. The resistance of the euro / dollar rebounded to 1.2900, with an important resistance of 1.3000. The euro / US dollar only has a firm footing above 1.3000, which will limit the reversal of the larger midline market. Otherwise, it will be the best opportunity for the empty side to sell.

　　 dollar Today, the short term is mainly based on short selling, with a stop loss, and a profit of 30 or more points. We will withdraw all the outstanding transactions before the US opens. This strategy is suitable for margin and can be taken as a reference.

The US dollar index can be sold at the upper limit of the 85.20----84.40 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Euro / US dollar: it can buy at the lower limit of the 1.2900--1.2760 interval, effectively break 30 points and stop the loss, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

GBP / USD: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 1.6040----1.5930 interval, effectively breaking 40 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

USD / CHF: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 0.9455----0.9345 interval, effectively breaking 40 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

USD / yen: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 106.40----105.00 interval, effectively breaking 40 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Australian dollar / US dollar: it can buy at the lower limit of the 0.8780----0.8660 interval, effectively break 40 points and stop the loss, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

USD / Canadian Dollar: you can buy at the lower limit of the 1.1370---1.1210 interval, effectively break 40 points, stop the loss, and aim at the upper limit of the interval.

Gold: it can be sold at the upper limit of 1252 - 1225, effectively breaking the position of $10, and the target is in the lower limit of the interval.

Silver: it can be sold at the upper limit of 17.80 - 17, effectively breaking the position of 0.40 US dollars, and the target is in the lower limit of the interval.