September, A Number Of Economic Data Warmer Experts Say The Worst Time Of The Year

Main August economic data The decline has triggered market concerns, but in September China's economy is showing signs of recovery. Although the CPI increase in September has reached a 4 year low, the growth rate of exports and new loans has exceeded expectations, and the growth of electricity consumption and actual use of foreign capital has been negative.

Specifically, September Exit The total value increased by 15.3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 5.9 percentage points faster than that in August. It was also higher than the previous 12% market expectations, the highest in 19 months. Although there are voices questioning the fact that the export growth rate is high and low, the Ministry of commerce thinks that the growth rate is normal. This is not only because of the effectiveness of the policies and measures for the steady growth of foreign trade and the recovery of the international market demand, but also relative to the relatively low base in the same period last year.

New RMB loans in September are also far away. Market expectations 。 Data show that the new loan in September was 857 billion 200 million yuan, a substantial increase compared to 702 billion 500 million yuan in August and 787 billion yuan in September 2013.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, said that bank credit exceeded expectations, mainly related to quarterly behavior of banks, and intensified in the end of 9. On the other hand, because of the contraction of non credit financing channels under various regulatory regulations, this demand has also shifted to bank credit.

In addition, the actual use of foreign capital and the growth of electricity consumption have been reversed from negative to positive. Among them, the actual use of foreign capital (FDI) in September increased by 1.9% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate was positive after two consecutive months of negative growth. In September, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 2.7% over the same period last year, and the rate of increase in August dropped by 1.5% compared with the same period in August.

Guan Qingyou, vice president and chief macro researcher of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, said that China's economy has temporarily bid farewell to the worst of the year. In the future, the demand for investment and financing in the real economy will be improved. Infrastructure investment may continue to rise to help stabilize growth. Real estate sales supported by the new mortgage policy are expected to improve. The four quarter is expected to be slightly better than the three quarter.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, told China news network that China's economic data were mixed in September. Foreign trade, credit and actual utilization of foreign capital were slightly better. CPI and PPI data showed that the downward pressure on the economy remained relatively large, and economic vitality still needs further stimulation.

Bai Ming pointed out that the next step should be moderately guided domestic consumption, focusing on investment in infrastructure projects, supporting residents to improve the demand for sexual housing, and avoiding large-scale stimulus plans to ensure sustained economic growth.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, pointed out that although the downward pressure on the economy is still large, it is still in a reasonable range. The next step is to adhere to the overall thinking of total stability and directional regulation, and the structural support can be further increased.

Lian Ping further pointed out that we should continue to increase support for key areas such as public infrastructure and strategic emerging industries, as well as weak links such as "three rural" and small and micro enterprises through accelerating fiscal expenditure, implementing industrial planning and structural tax reduction. Monetary policy should be adjusted to remain stable and loose. We should continue to take measures such as directional reduction, open market operation and directional refinancing to regulate the operation of monetary credit.