Fan Jianping: Next Year'S Economic Growth Target May Be Pferred To 7%-7.5%

Since this year, with the support of policies, new projects such as high-speed rail, water conservancy, nuclear power and so on have been started more, and the effect of stimulating economic growth through these projects is not large.

We must pform the innovation driven mode and create a better macro environment for economic development through reform, intellectual property protection and other measures.

Fan Jianping, director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, said that according to the exclusive interview with reporters, according to the GDP index calculated by the Ministry of economic information of the state information center, there will still be downward pressure on the economy in the next 6 months. The possibility of a marked increase in GDP growth in the fourth quarter is unlikely. The increase is expected to be around 7.3%, mainly due to the oversupply of the real estate market.

Fan Jianping said, in particular, the fourth quarter consumption is relatively stable, but the smooth consumption is difficult to offset the impact of the real estate downturn on domestic demand.

Investment will continue to decline, and manufacturing and infrastructure investment will continue to fall.

Driven by international market demand, foreign trade may be better in the fourth quarter.

Comprehensive judgement, the fourth quarter economic growth rate may continue to decline.

Fan Jianping believes that the fourth quarter

The main reason is the fall of the real estate market.

The latest 9 month real estate announced by the National Bureau of Statistics

Compared with August, they all declined.

Although the central bank issued a relaxation loan restriction policy at the end of September, the demand from the current market is not large.

If the real estate industry was the engine of China's economy, it would be impossible for the engine to play a strong role as it used to be.

Because the number of households in China's cities and towns has exceeded the expected inflection point, and the number of apartments exceeds the number of households.

It is noteworthy that the three quarter has just been released.

The growth rate has hit a new low since the first quarter of 2009. Some analysts believe that next year's economic growth will enter the "6" era.

In response, Fan Jianping said that according to the annual economic growth target of 7% proposed by the "12th Five-Year plan", it is possible to achieve the goal of economic planning next year.

Next year is the last year of the 12th Five-Year plan. According to the current economic situation, it is estimated that the economic growth target will be adjusted to 7%-7.5% next year.