Potential Structural Debt Risk Should Not Be Underestimated.

The scale of debt is at a reasonable level.

Sustainable development is inseparable from financing. Moderate borrowing is conducive to improving the allocation of funds and the efficiency of economic development. However, excessive debt levels need to be prevented and controlled.

After the financial crisis, there is an increasing number of research in academic circles. The main conclusion of our research on debt level or leverage is that the scale of debt expansion in China has increased rapidly in recent years, and the debt risk has risen all the time.

At the end of 2011, the total social debt ratio was 168.9%, significantly lower than the level of 270%-520% in developed countries. The debt was generally moderate and controllable, and the risk of sovereign debt crisis was minimal.

This article agrees with this judgment, but as the situation changes, it is necessary to combine the data in recent two years to further investigate the debt level of our country.

One is the high debt of government departments.

From the debt ratio of government debt to GDP, government debt is still reasonable but there is a tendency to go higher.

According to the data of the Audit Commission, the total debt ratio of the national government debt at the end of 2012 was 39.43%, lower than the international commonly used 60% liability rate control standard.

Combined with the central and local governments, the debt ratio reached 53.1% at the end of June 2013. Considering the possibility that liabilities will increase in the latter half of the year, the government debt ratio is already close to 60% of the international warning line.

If the debt balance is compared with those of public revenue, government fund income, state-owned capital operating budget revenue and social insurance fund income, the government debt rate will decline.

In 2013, the debt rate reached 138.3%, down 10 percentage points from the previous year, and was within the reasonable range of 90%-150% calculated by IMF.

In addition, China's external debt is relatively low.

In 2013, the external debt of our government was 3 trillion and 800 billion yuan, which accounted for 6.7% of GDP. Since the crisis, though it has been improving, it is still significantly lower than that of developed countries such as the United States, European Union, Japan and so on, and is also lower than the international common control standard reference value of 20%.

Although there is no risk, the level of government debt is the most close to the four sector.

Two is

The leverage ratio is basically matched with the financial structure.

Judging the leverage ratio of the financial sector, the central bank looks at the proportion of reserve currency, and the proportion of commercial banks looking at the loan balance. The shadow banks see the ratio of assets to GDP.

In 2013, the central bank's reserve currency and GDP ratio reached 47.6%, down 1.5 percentage points from 2012.

The balance of loans of commercial banks was 76 trillion and 600 billion yuan, which was 134.6% compared with GDP, 3.5 percentage points higher than that of last year.

According to Moodie's report, China's shadow banking assets reached 37 trillion and 700 billion yuan at the end of 2013, compared with GDP ratio of 66%, an increase of 14 percentage points over the previous year.

The leverage ratio of China's banking sector is relatively high, which is basically matched with China's direct financial underdevelopment and passive monetary issuance mechanism.

Three, the level of debt of non-financial enterprises is relatively stable.

In view of the existence of soft budget constraints in state-owned enterprises and the long-term indefinite distinction between the local governments and the local governments, the government related debts related to state-owned enterprises have been included in government debt.

In terms of liabilities of non-state-owned industrial enterprises, it has been relatively stable and reasonable in recent years.

In 2011, the asset liability ratio of non-state-owned industrial enterprises was 53.9%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that in 2010, 2.3 percentage points lower than that in 2008, and a reasonable interval of 50%, which is at a low level compared with that of the United States, Japan, Germany and other countries.

Four, the debt level of the residential sector has improved but is still low.

In 2013, the savings deposits of domestic and foreign currency were 46 trillion and 500 billion yuan, the loan balance was 19 trillion and 900 billion yuan, and the debt rate of the residential sector was 42.7%, which was 17.4 percentage points higher than that of the end of 2008. The rising trend is still continuing, and 45.1% has reached the end of this year.

In contrast, the proportion of GDP in the US sector accounts for 87%, which accounts for 31.2% of the total debt, which is higher than that of China, and also higher than that of the other three sectors, which highlights the characteristics of debt consumption.

Judging from the factors of China's financial structure, soft constraints of state enterprises and the imbalance of local government revenue and expenditure, China's debt level is relatively stable in the past two years and is generally controllable.

Moreover, the government's deepening reform and regulation innovation is also conducive to debt risk control.

The State Council promulgated the "opinion" to strengthen the management of local government debt. It called for the establishment of a local government debt management mechanism which is unified by borrowing, using and returning. It will cut off the debts of state-owned enterprises and local governments, divestiture the financing function of financing platform companies, control the scale of local government borrowing, and prevent the expansion of government debt.

The innovation of the regulation and control mode of "making good use of increments and revitalizing the stock" is being replaced by the "sprinkling irrigation" measures such as directional flood reduction and so on, which is conducive to enhancing the policy pertinence and preventing the financial sector from increasing its leverage too quickly.

Potential structural debt risk should not be underestimated.

At present, the debt risk is still controllable, but there are some unfavorable factors such as the recent adjustment of some policies, the increasing demand for debt financing in the long run and the weakening of debt paying ability. Besides, the debt structure of our country is unreasonable and the price is generally high. The debt risk, especially the debt risk of local governments and enterprises, can not be ignored.

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Peak and recent policy adjustments increase debt risk.

Audit data show that as of the end of June 2013, 10 trillion and 900 billion yuan of government debt, 2 trillion and 400 billion yuan expired this year, accounting for 21.9%, in the next three years, about 4 trillion yuan expired, accounting for more than 36%, the debt service peak has not passed, even if it does not consider new loans, debt repayment pressure is not small.

At the same time, in order to prevent further economic downturn, all localities have relaxed the restriction policy of real estate purchase. Banks are also planning to relax housing loans, and do not exclude the possibility of raising the enthusiasm of residents' loans and raising the debt level.

In addition, some cases of rigid trust payment have been broken up, and some areas are exposed to financial risks, which means that the debt risk can not be ignored.

Two, the irrational structure and high cost have led to the trigger point of debt risk.

First of all, it corresponds to the total debt stability of the government, and the debt ratio of local government accounts for 60% of the government debt.

In 2012, the debt ratio was 30.6%, rising to 31.3% after six months.

The local government's function of economic construction is large and the situation of lack of standardized borrowing channels remains unchanged, and debts may continue to rise.

From the perspective of enterprise structure, the debt level of state-owned enterprises and large enterprises is obviously higher than that of small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises.

Next is the debt raising funds to invest in real estate and overcapacity industries.

From the point of view of loans, the balance of real estate loans increased from 18.6% at the end of 2009 to 20.3% at the end of 2013. In recent years, nearly 30% of new loans went to the real estate sector.

With the change of the real estate market situation, the concentration of loans may induce risks.

Overcapacity industries are concentrating a large number of loans, and the risks are emerging.

Finally, the cost of debt financing is high and the risk is hidden.

Last year, the interest rate of one year loan in China was 2-6 times that of the developed countries such as the United States, Germany and Japan. Some enterprises actually took about 10% of the loan cost.

The interest rate increases the cost of government bonds, and the yield of our 10 - year bonds is about 2 times that of the United States.

In the case of limited debt scale, these short boards may reduce the trigger point of debt risk.

Three is the economic downturn and structural adjustment to increase debt demand.

The first is the economic downturn. Energy, traditional manufacturing and real estate and other heavy asset industries have excess capacity, low profitability, increased demand for corporate loans, the supply of bank loans tends to be cautious, and bad loans increase.

At the end of 6 2014, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks was close to 700 billion yuan, and the non-performing loan ratio reached 1.08%, which was 20% higher than the low point in 2011, while the provision coverage rate decreased by 30 percentage points in two years.

Secondly, China's structural adjustment efforts, the high-end manufacturing industry, modern service industry, new urbanization and other future growth momentum, huge demand for financing.

It has been estimated that the rural population needs about 90 thousand yuan for every person entering the city.

In indirect financial structure, it is inevitable to raise the demand for debts such as bank loans.

Four, demographic changes weaken the long-term solvency.

One of the most important sources of solvency is the growth of household savings.

It depends on the growth of working age population.

In the past, there were many producers in the demographic dividend period in China, and the expectation of future income was stable. The growth of borrowing consumption and investment would not affect the solvency.

At present, the change of population structure in China is weakening the source of debt repayment. In the process of population aging, the number of elderly people mainly increases as consumers, the consumption of loans decreases, and the leverage ratio will fall.

In 2012, China's 15-59 year old working age population declined, which will affect the solvency of the community in the medium to long term.