Rapid Capital Flight Is Hard To Come By. Moderate Depreciation Of RMB Is Good.

The US quantitative easing (QE) policy has finally come to an end.

The market discussion is very warm and a lot of people are worried.

In the short term, the pressure for QE to withdraw from emerging economies is mainly due to capital outflow and depreciation of the local currency, and through these two aspects, there will be a series of negative effects on the domestic macro-economic operation.

But in the medium term, the further recovery of the US economy will bring more opportunities for export to emerging economies as well as increase.

Preference brings capital back.

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It is obviously biased to equate to other emerging economies.

Looking at the fundamentals of our economy from a global perspective, it is undoubtedly a beautiful landscape.

In the coming period, China's economic growth should be able to run at more than 7%. There is a larger space for urbanization and development in the central and western regions. The financial and financial situation is stable and favorable, with a favorable balance of payments, adequate foreign exchange reserves, and a certain level of interest margins at home and abroad.

The good state of our economy will still be more attractive to international capital, and the scene of rapid capital flight from emerging economies should not repeat itself in China.

At present, the speed of capital outflow in China should not be accelerated, which is regarded as the influence of QE withdrawal.

In fact, our country has begun to move towards the ranks of capital exporting countries.

If QE policy exit has relatively limited impact on China, then this change will not be a bad thing for our country.

After the reform in 2005, with the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, China's international balance of payments continued to maintain a double surplus pattern. Capital flows into the territory in large scale, and the foreign exchange reserves of more than 3 billion US dollars are clear proof.

And more than 20 trillion yuan of foreign exchange accounted for the pressure on monetary policy.

The continued large scale inflow brought partial asset bubbles and pushed the leverage of the economy up.

To ease market pressure, the central bank has struggled to hedge operations in the money market and has had to raise the deposit reserve ratio to a high level to hedge against the large number of currencies caused by foreign exchange holdings.

For a time, people have been hoping to change the situation one day, but have not had such an opportunity.

At the same time, the appreciation of RMB nearly ten years, the appreciation of the United States dollar more than 30%, while the real effective exchange rate has increased more, which has brought more and more pressure to our exports.

When the downward pressure of the economy is relatively large, it is not a good thing if the RMB can moderate depreciation at a moderate level.

In the first half of this year, the yuan maintained its devaluation for several months, making no difference to the export of the whole year.

I think we should seize this opportunity now.

Of course, we should still take precautionary measures to avoid the rapid outflow of capital in the short term and the devaluation of the renminbi.

This requires forward-looking use of policies and synergies.

For example, we should push forward the pformation of basic money supply channels as soon as possible, and increase the flexibility of RMB exchange rate in the new situation.