Financing Costs Continue To Fall, Easy To Rise And Fall.

Since mid October, the central bank has launched a series of major monetary easing policies. First, it carried out a total of 769 billion 500 million yuan MLF for two times, and then lowered the repo rate.

Affected by this, the financing cost of the market has declined, and the Treasury bond futures have risen sharply.

In the context of growth, the low cost of financing in the latter part of the money market will be a matter of great probability, and the price of treasury bond futures will move upward.

First, China's GDP grew by 7.3% in the three quarter, a parallel low since the 2008 economic crisis.

Objectively speaking, one of the reasons why this value is too low is that the gross domestic product (GDP) is too large in the same period last year.

From another perspective, the adjustment of China's economic structure has achieved initial success.

Although the economic growth rate has declined, the overall economy is running healthily than before. The economic downturn is the inevitable cost of economic restructuring.

However, this is not the reason why we can accept the GDP growth rate of 7.3%.

China's economy has maintained a trend of high growth for more than 20 years. With the current total economic volume in China, it is difficult to maintain a high growth trend for a long time, and the decline in economic growth will become the norm.

But a sharp drop in GDP in a short time will risk a hard landing for the economy.

At present, the real estate industry's adjustment to the real economy has begun to show the negative effect, and the related enterprises' profit level has obviously declined, which is an indisputable fact.

In the blank period when the economy has not found new growth points, China's economy has downside risks, so the government should provide a moderate support for the economy through a series of policies.

This will force the central bank to launch a series of loose monetary policies to provide the bottom line for the economy.

In October, China's PMI was 50.8, not only lower than expected, but also a 5 month low.

The decline of this data shows that the expansion rate of manufacturing industry is declining, and it is also determined that the central bank will further relax its determination.

In November 6th, the central bank announced the three quarter of 2014 currency.

Report.

The report pointed out that in the three quarter, the central bank launched a total of 769 billion 500 million yuan MLF to the market.

Among them, in September 17th, the central bank made a total of 500 billion yuan for the five major state-owned banks in MLF.10 months, and the central bank made a total of 269 billion 500 million yuan MLF to joint stock commercial banks, larger city commercial banks and rural commercial banks.

The two MLF period is 3 months, and the interest rate is 3.5%.

In addition, in the three months from August to October, the central bank lowered its repo rate for the two time.

Among them, in September 18th, the central bank will win the bid.

From 3.7% to 3.5%.

In October 14th, the central bank lowered its bid rate from 3.5% to 3.4%.

The continuous easing of monetary policy by the central bank is a hedge against weak economic data. It aims to reduce the cost of financing in the money market by increasing liquidity, thereby increasing investment and expanding employment to achieve economic growth.

Due to the three quarter

The pressure of domestic growth is still huge.

Considering the lack of new growth points in China's economy, it is difficult to find the driving force for growth from within. Therefore, it is the general trend for the central bank to introduce loose monetary policy to support the economy.

In the context of growth, we believe that the fourth quarter of the money market as a whole will show a relaxed trend.

The cost of market financing will decline, providing a good upside environment for treasury bond futures, and treasury bond futures will show a trend of easy rise and fall.

In terms of operation, because of the recent sharp rise in treasury bond futures, the market has already consumed some of the earlier profits.

Therefore, continuing to do more will be faced with the risk of technical callbacks. It is suggested that every callback be done more.