Can The United States Still Be Alone In The Global Economic Downturn?

The prospects of developed economies such as Europe and Japan are becoming dim. Emerging markets such as China, India and Russia are in a quagmire.

A number of indicators released last week show that the global economy is continuing to slump.

Europe's CPI growth in November has reached a new low of 5 years, with increasing worries about deflation. Japan's core inflation growth in October also hit a new low in the year. Under the background of sharp drop in energy prices, the Central Bank of Europe and Japan relaxed their pressure.

Emerging markets are also not optimistic. India's economic growth in the three quarter was 5.3%, down from the two quarter. Driven by government spending, Latin America's largest economy, Brazil's economy grew by 0.1% in the three quarter, recovering to expand, but still on the brink of collapse.

Since the two quarter of this year, the US economy has been showing steady growth. The number of non farm workers has increased by more than 200 thousand in 9 consecutive months. Recently, oil prices have dropped and shopping season has been affected, and consumer confidence has also hit a new high for many years.

So the problem is, the global economic outlook is worrying. Will weak demand affect the US economy in the coming months?

　　 Investor To a great extent, you can rest assured. The reason why the United States can exist at present global economy In a slowing environment, it is mainly because its dependence on exports is relatively small. According to world bank data, the proportion of GDP exports in the US is 14%, the lowest among developed countries, and far lower than 51% and 26% of Germany and China.

And hope U.S.A The economy can drive the world out of the haze, and there is little possibility in the short term. In October, US consumers pointed out that the investment data of enterprises were very low, indicating that the United States might not be able to provide enough demand for other economies.

However, the good news is that low oil prices, on the one hand, have suppressed global inflation, and on the other hand have boosted the economy of oil importing countries such as the US and China, which is equivalent to tax cuts for businesses and consumers.

Oxford Economics, a research institution at University of Oxford, said on Friday that oil prices should be maintained at 60 US dollars per barrel for the next two years, which will greatly boost the economies of major developed and emerging market countries. The economic growth of China and the United States will increase by 0.4% compared with current expectations, and Europe and Japan will increase by 0.1% and 0.2%.