Garment Industry Enters Deep Transformation Stage

Internet shocks normalize, explore the transformation of supply chain and retail mode: the logic of "extension expansion + endogenous price increase" is destroyed by economic downturn and Internet impact. Under the background of the normalization of external influence, the traditional garment industry has entered a period of deep transformation. In terms of electricity providers, most enterprises are vigorously developing online businesses. The rapid development of mobile e-commerce has increased the chips for enterprises to win the market; in terms of business mode, clothing enterprises have improved the upstream and downstream reaction speed through the dual reform of supply chain and channel, and reduced intermediate links to provide products with more cost-effective and brand influence.

Industry transformation is surging, and mergers and acquisitions are endless: this year, the number of mergers and acquisitions across industries / industries has reached 17/11 respectively, and the number of mergers and acquisitions has gradually increased. This report combs the transformation logic of cross industry mergers and acquisitions, cross industry restructuring, horizontal and vertical acquisitions in the same industry, and quantifies the expected companies in the industry's transformation and transformation. Four.

Over the past year, the transformation of industry mergers and acquisitions has focused on textile "distress survival" enterprises and apparel industry integration enterprises. Looking forward to 2015, we believe that the leading apparel industry has accumulated rich experience in the existing business, and the opportunity to expand the market space has been achieved through mergers and acquisitions. Meanwhile, since the PE development in 2005, private equity funds have accumulated a lot of projects for mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and industry integration is ready to go.

Retail is still in the doldrums, sports, Home textiles , Leisure time Take the lead out of the adjustment: in 1-10 months, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 21 trillion and 310 billion yuan, up 12% from the same period last year, down 0.96 percentage points from the same period last year, and retail sales growth is still bottomed out. From the order data trend, inventory cycle and performance, the recovery trend of sports, home textiles and leisure industry is clearer. Children's clothing and outdoor industry maintain a high degree of scenery. Leisure men's clothing and high-end men's and women's clothing are still in the adjustment stage in the short term.

2015 investment strategy: we believe that after nearly three years of adjustment, the brand clothing sector has digested most of the downside risks, and the sub sectors have gradually entered the performance recovery and valuation repair cycle. In 2015, more attention should be paid to the strategic implementation and project progress of enterprises in promoting transformation. The leading enterprises will hopefully come out of a clearer development path after this round of adjustment.

　　 Individual stock It is inclined to choose the leading companies with clear objectives of transformation, combined with the expectation of value recovery and performance recovery. In 2015, it recommends the Pathfinder (creating the "outdoor industry ecological chain", the sports industry policy stimulus), the Maison culture (layout culture industry chain, which is expected to benefit from the opening of Disney's garden in Shanghai), the performance of Langer, which is expected to transform into a fashion industry group, the AOKANG International (the end of the channel adjustment, the turning point of achievement approaching), the Semir dress (the end of the channel adjustment, the overall layout of the children's industrial chain), the home textile of Luo Lai (to join the direct battalion to enhance the channel control power, the big stake net to expand the online business), the Jiaxin silk (diversified industry layout, the cocoon silk market is expected to integrate the industrial chain, and obtain the pricing power of the global silk industry). On the choice, we