Guo Shiliang'S Interpretation Of Chinese Style "Speculation"

In December 29th, Guoxin Securities, which has attracted much attention, landed on the A share market.

As expected, Guoxin Securities opened the market on the first day and was immediately fired by the market.

At the close, Guoxin Securities reported 8.4 yuan, and the day's gains hit the rise limit on the first day of listing.

At the same time, Guoxin Securities had a turnover rate of only 0.05% a day, and the day's closing list was up to 1 billion 165 million shares.

In fact, Guoxin Securities's first day of speculation was already expected.

However, the listing time of Guoxin Securities happened to meet the frenzied market of brokerage stocks, which also brought greater impetus to the rise of Guoxin Securities.

According to the issuing price of Guoxin Securities 5.83 yuan / share, its corresponding dynamic P / E is slightly higher than 20 times. If the closing price of 8.4 yuan is listed on the first day, the dynamic P / E of Guoxin Securities is still 20 times the level.

In contrast, before the previous round of brokerage boom, the general dynamic price earnings ratio of the brokerage sector has increased to more than 50 times.

In the sector, the dynamic P / E ratio of CITIC Securities, Changjiang Securities and Xingye securities is much higher than 40 times.

Thus, for the Guoxin Securities with only 20 times dynamic price earnings ratio, it may not be difficult to double the future.

Since the restart of IPO since the end of June this year, China's stock market has launched several rounds of new issue.

From the perspective of funds frozen by new round of new shares, there is a gradual growth trend on the whole.

Among them, in the first round of purchase of new shares, a total of 922 billion 200 million yuan was frozen.

In the second and third rounds of new stock purchase, the scale of the corresponding frozen funds has also been maintained at a level of more than 800 billion.

By contrast, the latest freeze on new shares has increased significantly.

According to statistics, in the current issue of new shares, the total frozen capital reached 3 trillion and 100 billion, accounting for more than 1/10 of the market value of the same period of the market.

It is worth mentioning that in the above rounds of new issue, the phenomenon of new shares is constantly on the market.

And the IPO on the first day of the IPO became a normal phenomenon.

The reason is that there are internal factors and external factors.

From the analysis of internal factors, the incompleteness of the IPO system reform has become the main source of new shares.

This year, for example, the issue of regulatory red line is strictly enforced. The price earnings ratio of new shares is not higher than that of the industry.

As a result, in many rounds of IPO, the price earnings ratio of IPO is generally on the low side, and more than 10 times the issue price earnings ratio.

It is undeniable that the implementation of the above provisions has also suppressed the high price earnings ratio of new shares to a certain extent.

But at the same time, it exposes another fatal problem.

The so-called "you have Zhang Liang Ji, I have a wall ladder", since the IPO price earnings ratio is not allowed to touch the red line, then the capital led by the capital of the new shares after the listing limit, to achieve indirect speculation of new shares.

Obviously, since the resumption of IPO at the end of June, the IPO market basically showed the pattern of the all day increase limit on the first day of listing, and in the subsequent trading day, the new shares appeared in a continuous "one word" trading board.

However, after the end of the new stock market, the dynamic price earnings ratio of shares has long been flying.

The so-called red line of issuance regulation is also in name only.

In addition, from the external factor analysis, the new shares stir up to a certain extent reflects the prudence of market funds.

Obviously, the funds that are uncertain about the future market are keen to purchase new stocks, or pursue high-tech stocks to get a certain rate of return on investment.

However, from the analysis of market phenomena in recent months, on the one hand, the index shows a trend of continuous soaring, and the largest increase in the index has exceeded 50%.

But on the other hand, the phenomenon of new shares is still on the scene, and the size of the frozen funds for new stock purchase has always been at a high level.

Indeed, in the Chinese stock market, new shares are indeed a big cake, but also bring a certain rate of return on investment to the market.

However, behind the continued stir up of new shares, it is ahead of schedule for serious overdraft of new shares.

And when the new shares are in a frenzy of speculation, it will be a helpless market for investors.

Obviously, faced with the stir up of new shares,

More is the helpless wait-and-see.

In this regard, some commentators believe that for now, the only way to solve the problem of new stock speculation is stock issue registration system.

Can the stock issue registration system really solve the long-standing phenomenon of new shares stir?

The registration system, in short, is to reduce the entrance threshold of the enterprise, with the power of the market, let the market decide the life and death of the enterprise.

As a result, with the full spread of registration system, the scale of issuance of new shares will increase rapidly, and ultimately, the phenomenon of stir up of new shares will be inhibited by expanding the supply and demand of stocks.

In this regard, the author

Believe that

It is the most market-oriented distribution system, but whether it can play a real role in restraining the speculation of new shares, it has to be seen while walking.

However, the IPO has become a normal A share market.

At this point, it is not enough to break the chaos by means of marketization.

Obviously, to cure this chronic disease, it is necessary to revise the market system which has been distorted for a long time, enhance the core value of the market, and let the market play a decisive role.

At the same time, we must change the deep-rooted speculative mentality of the market and instilling the idea of value investment into the market.

As a result, it is expected to solve the problem of new shares stir up.