He Wan Man: Facing The Two Financial Risks, Questioning The Conscience Of Securities Companies

The regulatory authorities are going to conduct a two week inspection of the margin trading and margin business of the securities companies. In the Chinese stock market, they are making a staggering frenzy. The aunt spent 1 yuan to get 10 yuan shares, and four days in the central media, and repeatedly reminded that "no leveraging can create a myth". The Securities Research Institute actually declared that the leverage ratio of the A share market is within reasonable limits.

The reason for the securities business is: first, the market value of margin margin is 2.5%, which is equivalent to the international level (3%), within a reasonable range; margin trading accounts for 18%, which is lower than the level of international 20%-25%, and there is no problem of two melts accelerated and plunged.

Second, the net assets of securities companies are 800 billion yuan, and the current leverage business is only equity pledge financing (300 billion yuan), two fusion (1 trillion yuan), traditional self run (including direct investment, stocks and bonds 500 billion yuan), and the effective leverage of securities companies is 2.5 times still very low.

Third, the securities companies need to increase the overall demand for leverage, rather than the lack of supply. The SFC will release revenue instruments, short-term corporate bonds and other debt financing instruments, and the broker is far from a reasonable leverage of 5-6 times.

Since the reasonable leverage of securities dealers can reach 5-6 times, and at present only 2.5 times, does it mean that the two financial businesses can be doubled at least, and the financing balance can be enlarged from nearly 1 trillion to 2 trillion.

Let's take a look at the three astonishing reasons of this Securities Research Institute.

First, as of December 11th, the margin balance of the two cities was 941 billion 500 million yuan, and the market value of the two cities was 31 trillion and 700 billion. In this case, the two balance accounts for 2.97% of the market value, which is exactly the same as that of the international level (3%).

However, people familiar with China's stock market know that the circulation market value of A shares is not the true free market value. The central enterprises, such as the five main lines of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the workers and peasants, and two barrels of oil, are all tradable shares. In fact, 70-80% shares held by controlling shareholders are basically not involved in market circulation.

Such as the first circulation market capitalization company, ICBC, A shares, 247 billion 400 million shares, excluding Huijin and the Ministry of finance, the real tradable shares are only 17 billion 300 million shares; second large PetroChina, A shares 162 billion shares, excluding controlling shareholders only 4 billion shares; third large agricultural banks, 284 billion 200 million shares of A shares; apart from controlling shareholders only 26 billion shares; fourth large Chinese banks, A shares 195 billion 900 million shares, excluding controlling shareholders only 6 billion 700 million shares; 6 billion 700 million large Sinopec, A share shares, excluding shares.

Only 5 billion 600 million shares; and so on.

Only this "five big" will have to deduct the circulation market value of 4 trillion and 400 billion -4.5 trillion.

The author estimates that the real free circulation market value of the A-share market is only 15-20 trillion, which accounts for two of the market value of the A balance, which is far more than 3% of the international level of 4.7%-6.3%.

Similarly, as of December 11th, the two cities bought 123 billion yuan in margin trading, and traded 798 billion 100 million yuan on that day, accounting for 15.41% of the two financial pactions, of which 17.26% was the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which appeared to be "below the level of international 20%-25%".

The question is, is there a daily turnover of 1 trillion and turnover in the international market? The daily trading of the Hongkong stock market is also up to 1400-1500 billion, which is generally 600-700 billion, and the NYSE is trading tens of billions of dollars.

take

Crazy trading volume as denominator, so rising, is not the least scientific attitude as a securities research institute.

Second, the most important regulatory indicators of securities companies are net capital rather than net assets.

As of December 31, 2013, the Securities Association of China released 2013 annual operating data of securities companies. As of December 31, 2013, the total assets of 115 securities companies were 2 trillion and 80 billion yuan, net capital was 520 billion 458 million yuan, and leverage ratio was nearly 4 times (total assets / net capital). Until now, I believe that the net assets of brokers will not increase much, and their total assets will expand greatly (the total assets of CITIC Securities, from 271 billion 300 million yuan at the end of 2013 to 375 billion 300 million yuan at the end of September this year, increase by 100 billion, while net capital is only 42 billion yuan).

Third, "

We need to increase the overall demand for leverage rather than supply. "

Even 50 thousand yuan, or even 10 thousand yuan customers can open their credit accounts, and still feel "insufficient demand". Do they want investors to go to margin trading? You can earn 8.6% interest on the broker, and you can also increase the Commission significantly?

Lenovo, some brokers, strongly advocated "selling stocks and stocks", and was immediately criticized by the SFC and many media. In such a frenzied market, some of our brokers should really ask themselves, where is your social conscience?