How Much Foreign Trade Data Fluctuates?

　　 False invoices become "hot money" access

After the two digit growth rate of export growth in September and October, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in November, foreign trade data slipped in the low speed growth range, and exports increased by only 4.4% over the same period last year.

"We believe that this phenomenon mainly reflects the strengthening of supervision by government departments and containment of the inflow of arbitrage funds hidden behind exports." Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, said.

Before that, the growth rate of China's exports grew by 15.3% and 11.6% in September and October respectively, which deviated from the growth rate of foreign trade cargo throughput of main ports and Shanghai container outbound volume.

A recent survey showed that among the 200 manufacturing exporters who answered the questionnaire, 54% of the enterprises believed that the false invoices and the high reported export volume became a common phenomenon again, the ratio was the highest since December 2013. Through false invoices, the high volume of export has become an important way for "hot money" to enter China.

　　 Two motives for arbitrage and tax fraud drive false trade.

False trade is usually caused by arbitrage or arbitrage opportunities. From the point of view of the exchange rate, the daily average exchange rate of offshore RMB and offshore RMB was 0.0104 in 9-10 months, while that in 7-8 was only 0.0004. The expansion of the exchange rate provides opportunities for cross border arbitrage, and the higher value of the offshore renminbi causes the outflow of the US dollar and the inflow of RMB into the mainland.

Zhou Hao, an economist at ANZ bank, said that under the background of the narrowing of the Sino US interest rate gap, the main motive for this round of false trade is not arbitrage, but based on the significant difference between the offshore RMB exchange rate and the offshore RMB exchange rate.

from Export goods According to categorical data, jewellery exports from precious metals or precious metals have surged from $3 billion 150 million in August to US $10 billion 800 million in September, while precious metals are easier to invoke than other commodities. In October, this sub item dropped to $4 billion 860 million, but the growth rate was still 187%.

　　 Tax fraud It has become another motive for false trade. Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank, said that the export of precious metals increased sharply in foreign trade data, mainly because silver companies increased exports to obtain export tax rebates. According to the current policy, the export of silver made of industrial products can receive 17% of the export tax rebate.

　　 Trade data Distortion may interfere with macro regulation and control

The industry has warned that the fraudulent and rebate behavior of "matching distribution tickets" (also known as "package outlet"), that is, the false trade which does not match the bill, makes China's foreign trade data distorted, which will mislead the regulatory departments to judge the situation.

A customs official told reporters that at present and even in the next few years, the foothold of China's foreign trade development is to grow steadily, increase quality and improve efficiency. Under the premise of stabilizing the economy, various reform measures can be pushed forward. Therefore, how to maintain steady growth and avoid excessive sliding in the short term of economic growth is the primary goal of the current macroeconomic policy. False trade can not accurately reflect the quality and efficiency of the current foreign trade development. On the one hand, it affects the layout of the government's macro economy, and on the other hand, it will affect the sustained and healthy development of foreign trade. Therefore, false trade should be strictly monitored and strictly audited.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, suggested that we should further standardize the export tax rebate order and seek a balance between speeding up the tax rebate rate and cracking down on tax fraud.

In addition to strengthening supervision and standardizing procedures, the return of arbitrage capital means that China's central bank policy is facing more challenges. The real effective exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been strong in the past few months. This means that in the case of devaluation of the euro and yen, the passive appreciation of the RMB will not only bring pressure to the export sector, but also increase the willingness of false trade.

Chen Gong, chief research fellow of Ampang consulting, suggested that the RMB exchange rate flexibility should be further increased, the arbitrage capital should be pushed back, the exchange rate formation mechanism should be accelerated, and the decision power of the exchange rate should be given more to the market.