Our Reminder Of The Ten Investment Pitfalls Of 2015

Although this year is not as good as last year, it will be stronger than next year. If it is used in today's investment field, it is very appropriate. It's hard to make money in 2014, but it will be even harder in 2015.

Why? There are two reasons: in the international arena, the United States is about to enter the interest rate cycle. Emerging economies are facing asset price revaluation, and turbulence is inevitable. In China, the reform has entered the deep water area, and the central bank has been reducing the growth rate of broad money M2 every year. Although there will be some measures such as lowering interest rates and cutting interest rates, the overall economic growth rate will continue to slow down.

In other words, the next two years will be China's economy Adjusting the most crucial year is also the most difficult year. At this time, investment needs to be very cautious. Let's take a look at the investment pitfalls.

1, house

Since 2014, China's real estate market has entered a highly differentiated era. In the 30 largest cities of the total economic volume, because of the superior public resources and attracting foreign population continuously, there is still a driving force for housing prices. In particular, the first tier cities, although did not cancel the restriction, but in the fourth quarter of this year there has been a marked warming.

In most of China's three or four or five tier cities, real estate has been completely extinguished. These cities either suffer a serious loss of population or grow slowly, but they have concentrated on the construction of large volume commercial and non commercial housing, which can not be digested at all. If you rush to buy a house in these new and small towns, there is no difference from falling into a trap. In the future, even if there is serious inflation, they will not be able to save these houses because they have no use at all. The way out in the future is to dismantle and sell waste products, so its value is scrap price.

2, stock market

China's stock market is bound to have a big bull market in the future, but it needs to meet the following prerequisites: important progress has been made in reform and economic transformation, and can be replaced. Real estate In the new pillar industry, the IPO registration system reform has been completed, and the securities market has strictly enforced laws and violating the law. Without these conditions, the bull market is a fake. It is a hormone.

2015 is an important year for China's economic transformation. It is an important year for RMB denominated assets to face the increase in US dollar interest rates. But a wave of "steady growth" has been launched. How the stock market will go in 2015 is full of suspense. If the IPO registration reform is delayed, a wave of policy bull market may appear briefly; but if the reform is carried out according to the established rhythm, the current market is coming to an end. In short, the stock market in 2015 is very difficult to do, structural opportunities are lower than in 2014.

3, P2P

2015 may be the last year of Internet banking brutality growth. It is expected that from this year the regulation will be gradually standardized and in place. With the gradual involvement of big capital, competition will become more intense. A large number of P2P websites are expected to be on fire.

4, private lending

The risk of private lending is higher than that of P2P, so the promise is higher than P2P. 2015 will be a year when the risk of private lending in China has been concentrated. The risk of private lending in Anyang, Handan and Shenmu has been exploded. If you still have money to put in this area, you'd better withdraw it. The so-called "gentlemen do not stand under the danger wall", private lending is the biggest "dangerous wall" at present.

5, trust products

From the trust products that appeared in 2014, the main focus was on coal, real estate and other fields. The ten year of coal gold has ended, overcapacity and price declines, so there has been a relatively centralized phenomenon of default. The breach of real estate trust products has just begun and is expected to burst in the next two years. 345 line city real estate project risk is bigger, especially these cities commercial real estate project, must be careful.

6, mobile phone virus

With the popularity of smart phones and Internet financing, our fortunes are increasingly linked to mobile phones. Before the phone fraud, cheaters want to communicate with you before you can cheat. In the future they mainly invade your mobile phone by means of technical means, and can turn away your half of your life in a moment. Therefore, it is more and more important to skillfully use all kinds of safety tools and skills to protect their property.

7, stick to tradition.

　　 Mobile Internet The comprehensive integration of traditional industries will start in 2015. That is to say, the economic field is undergoing great changes like dynastic changes. In such an era, if you stick to tradition and do not think of change, you will be able to stand in the sky and feel sad. There are senior professionals in traditional industries who complain to me that they have been employed for more than 20 years and are mixed up in the middle of the enterprise, but now their incomes are not much higher than those of the couriers. Why is there today? Because it is too lazy and too enterprising to use WeChat's popular saying that it has failed to close its own "waiting death mode". If you wait to die, no one can save it.

8, blind innovation

"Waiting for death mode" is sad, but it seems better than "finding death" mode. In the age of great change, there are always some people or enterprises who break away from their familiar industries and business models without being fully aware of them, and turn them into new and unverified areas. As we all know, businesses that started to blogger in those days were already dead, and enterprises that swarm into group buying businesses also withered out 99%; in the future, Internet banking will also "become a performer". Blind innovation is actually more risky.

9, collusion between officials and businessmen

An important program is to listen to their boast and know which leader they are with, and whose son and son-in-law are friends. To put it plainly, the core competitiveness of their enterprises is these so-called "connections". If these "connections" are true, is it natural or bought? I think you know. In the 2015, when anti-corruption continues to deepen, it is hard to say whether bosses who continue playing collusion with officials and businessmen are waiting for their fortunes or traps.

10, blindly do more bulk commodities.

The bear market of commodities will continue in the next two years, which are caused by two main reasons. First, the US dollar enters the cycle of raising interest rates; second, China's economy has changed its growth mode and the growth rate of real estate has declined. The four largest diamond commodities: oil, gold, iron ore, coal and so on will at least be weak in 2015. Investment should not be against the trend. At this stage, at least, do not use the lever to blindly copy the bottom.