In 2015, The Central Bank Should Take The Initiative To Adapt To The New Normal Of Economic Development.

The central bank has once again released a signal to the outside world that it will not walk the old way.

On the 8 day and 9 day morning of 2015, the central bank said that it would maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, continue to implement directional regulation and increase credit support for key areas and weak links.

Another major point of the meeting is that the central bank proposed that in 2015, it would be more effective to "ensure that there is no regional systemic financial risk".

Analysts believe that structural measures will be adopted by the central bank in 2015 or even in 13th Five-Year.

Under the background of low employment pressure, prevention and control risk has become a more concerned issue in decision-making.

The meeting pointed out that in 2015, the central bank should take the initiative to adapt to the new normal of economic development and put the pfer mode and structure in a more important position.

In the eleven major tasks of 2015, it was also pointed out that we should keep the liquidity of the banking system "reasonable and abundant", and "continue to implement directional regulation" to guide financial institutions to revitalize the stock and make good use of the increment.

This means that in 2015, the central bank will continue to adopt some structured monetary instruments, such as "directional reduction", SLF, MLF, PSL, etc., which have been implemented in 2014, even the LLF which has been predicted by the market for a longer period.

Before the central bank cut interest rates at the end of November last year, the "central mama put option" was once popular on the market, that is, if the downward pressure on the economy further increased, the central bank would go back to the old way of "flood irrigation" for the sake of steady growth.

A central bank Research Office of a provincial capital city, according to a reporter, said: "the central bank's stance on the last rate cut does not mean that monetary policy is turning. The working conference also suggested that the overall level of liquidity should be reasonable enough to continue to implement directional regulation, which means that the" mama put option "is not logical in logic.

The effect of stimulating aggregate demand with money has been very limited. It should allocate incremental funds to the sunrise industry and make an offer from supply. "

Structural

There is also controversy. Some market participants believe that "directional regulation is hard to achieve orientated" and "structural policies are opaque, resulting in market expectations".

Zhou Hao, director of the Wudaokou Monetary Institute of Tsinghua University and director of the monetary policy and financial stability research center of the National Finance Research Institute, said according to the reporter: "under the background of the fiscal and taxation reform is not yet in place, the central bank has to shoulder the important task of adjusting the structure.

In 2014, the Politburo meeting has passed the general plan of fiscal reform, and the NPC Standing Committee has passed the draft amendment to the budget law. The future fiscal and taxation policy is expected to play a more important role in the structural adjustment. At that time, the central bank will be able to extricate itself from the structural adjustment and regain its old line, and adjust the macroeconomic fluctuations periodically.

The central bank itself also acknowledges that the long-term use of structured monetary instruments will have side effects.

China's monetary policy implementation report in the second quarter of 2014 pointed out that the guiding role of monetary policy is complementary, and there will be some problems in the long-term implementation of structural measures such as directional reduction and quasi reduction. For example, there may be problems in the authenticity of the data, and the role of the market in deciding the flow of funds may be weakened.

In the medium to long term, the enhancement of endogenous economic growth power, the adjustment and pformation of economic structure and the optimization of credit resources investment must rely on institutional reform.

During the deployment of the main tasks in 2015, the meeting pointed out that "comprehensive measures should be taken to ensure that there is no regional systemic financial risk".

In contrast to the "bottom line" of "sticking to the risk of systemic financial risks" in 2014, the wording of "ensuring that it does not happen" seems more weighted.

A securities broker chief economist said: "I personally believe that risk prevention has been a considerable weight in high-level decision-making.

The employment problem is also related to social stability, but because of the strong ability of the third industry to absorb employment and the overall employment problem is not big, the risk prevention has been placed in a more important position.

This statement is not false.

According to the information from the Chinese government network, in November 3, 2014, the sixty-seventh executive meeting of the State Council heard reports on preventing and resolving financial risks and was submitted to the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in November 27th for deliberation.

The important financial policies and achievements issued by the Chinese government since the founding of this government show that financial risks are generally controllable, but there are risks and risks in stability.

The main manifestations include the total amount of money, the high leverage ratio of enterprises, the peak of local governments' debt repayment, and the excessive expansion of some shadow banks.

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS China, said: "risk prevention in monetary policy should be weighed more and more seriously.

If the excess water is released, further pushing up the leverage rate will easily induce systemic risk; but if the policy is too tight, the credit contraction will easily affect economic growth and employment, and it will also be harmful to the smooth and controllable real estate regulation.

The responsible person in charge of Finance in a prefecture level city thinks: "why is there no regional systemic financial risk"? This is because after the establishment of the deposit insurance system, the mode of local insurance and central payment has gone forever.

When the regional financial turmoil broke out in Wenzhou in 2011, there was controversy over whether to pay money or to reform the "building mechanism". Finally, the reform path was chosen. The central bank led the formulation of the overall plan for Wenzhou's financial reform.

Since the central government does not intend to pay the bill, prevention is even more important. "

Besides the monetary policy, the central bank working conference also revealed important information - "establishing a deposit insurance system".

Zhao Xijun, deputy director of the finance and Securities Research Institute of Renmin University of China, thinks that the deposit insurance system will be "landing" this year.

China's banking industry has more safety nets, and the competition of banking industry is more intense, which will ultimately enhance the banking's ability to serve the real economy.