Exploring The Influence Of Ruble's Depreciation On China And Its Enlightenment

Will the collapse of the ruble lead to the collapse of the Russian economy? Should China help? What profound implications can the Chinese government bring to China? For this reason, we interviewed 10 authoritative economists represented by the president of Renmin University of China and Chen Yulu, member of the monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China.

　　 Russia The economy will not collapse.

During the interview, experts agreed that the Russian economy would not collapse, but it would go into recession. Relative to the crisis in Russia's economy in 1998, the impact of the rouble depreciation is not that bad. In 1998, the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis did not disappear. The chain impact had a direct impact on the Russian economy, and there was no such environmental factor behind the ruble depreciation.

According to Chen Yulu analysis, from the index point of view, Russia's foreign exchange reserve in 1998 was only 140 billion US dollars, and now it is about 450 billion US dollars, and its strength is no longer the same. From the oil price perspective, although it has continued to go down, it has not yet seen the bottom; from the short-term debt to foreign exchange ratio, the proportion of Russian debt in 1998 is 140%, and now it is less than 35%. From the Political Bureau, the Russian regime in 1998 is very fragile, and now the support rate of Putin is relatively high. Despite the pressure from the new Cold War mentality from the western world, the ruling team led by Putin showed strong ability in controlling the situation and coping with the crisis, resulting in a high degree of cohesion and cohesion in the country. The ruble's depreciation is unlikely to cause the overall debt crisis.

But experts also pointed out that Russia Economics Whether it will fall into a deeper crisis, it is too early to judge. There are two uncertainties: one is the western countries. The most important concern is whether the sanctions imposed on Russia in the next western countries will be overweight. Recently, the US economic strength has strengthened, and it has become more tough on the Russian issue. Pay special attention to whether the Obama administration will take interest rate measures in the first quarter of 2015. Raising interest rates will create greater pressure on the rouble. On the other hand, Russia itself. Today, Russia and the West are no longer the "dead and alive" relationship of the past, and do not exclude Russia from making partial concessions. After this crisis, Putin will be more rational and pragmatic.

　　 The continued decline of rouble has little impact on China.

Experts agreed that the ruble still has room to fall, but it has little impact on China. Huo Jianguo, President of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview that the continued decline of ruble will have some impact on China's large-scale trade cooperation, but the impact is limited, because the products that account for a larger proportion of imports and exports are all settled in us dollars. Xiang Songzuo, chief economist at the Agricultural Bank of China, believes that the renminbi is one of the most powerful currencies in the world, and there is no possibility of a significant depreciation. Kim Chung Xia, executive director of IMF in China, believes that if the renminbi is devalued by rouble, we should push the boat to offset the harm caused by the competitive depreciation of Europe and Japan.

In addition, Wan Chengcai, a researcher at the world affairs research center of Xinhua news agency, believes that the collapse of the ruble is related to oil prices. This is the outstanding and concentrated expression of global geopolitical and geopolitical economic changes this year. Scholars have various analyses, but the highly consistent view is that the current situation is caused by the deterioration of the internal and external factors in Russia. Although the Russian economy has been hit hard, the political ecology will not change. Chen Yulu, President of Renmin University of China, said in an interview that we can provide assistance to Russia within the appropriate scope, and this assistance is only applicable to the existing framework of cooperation between China and Russia.

Russia's crisis reflects the importance of multilateral cooperation mechanisms such as the BRICs, the National Development Bank and the emergency reserve fund. China should call for solidarity and cooperation within the framework of BRICs organizations to jointly cope with the pressure on the emerging economies to be delivered by the rouble depreciation.

　　 In view of the ruble depreciation, our country must strengthen two aspects of work.

Faced with the impact of Russia and the possible deeper crisis, how should our country respond positively? First, speed up the strategy of "one belt and one road". The traditional "Silk Road Economic Belt" originated in China, but for various historical reasons, it has never had the chance to put it into practice. The ruble's depreciation has created a good opportunity for our country to promote the "one belt and one way" strategy from a certain angle. The two is to strengthen investment cooperation with Russia. We should seize the present opportunity and increase investment in Russia. Apart from the strategic level, there should be concrete and pragmatic cooperation such as energy, high technology and joint projects. These cooperation can be carried out in the mode of "China gives money, and Russia comes out of manpower technology".

　　 Ruble depreciation The revelation of crisis to China

Experts believe that the ruble depreciation crisis has brought inspiration to our country. First, it is very difficult to resist risks because of the unitary economic structure and the primary economic development mode. Xiang Songzuo said that the biggest revelation of the Russian crisis to our country is that the strategy of big powers must not be short. Russia's biggest problem now is that the market economy has not developed, so its military and technology can not be transformed into an economic structural advantage. We should take warning from it, firmly optimize the economic structure and carry out transformation and upgrading.

Second, it is necessary to have a considerable amount of foreign exchange reserves. Drawing on the impact of the Russian economy, it is clear that our country is in transition. It is very necessary to have a considerable amount of foreign exchange reserves as a guarantee and support. We must have excess foreign exchange reserves in our hands to transform and upgrade.

Third, the convertibility of capital account must be cautious. From the lessons of Russia, we can conclude that "capital account convertibility" is included in some major issues of comprehensive deepening reform in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, but we should be cautious before the transformation of economic structure is completed.

Fourth, grasp the third industrial revolution opportunities and speed up technological breakthroughs in related fields. Experts suggest that the departments concerned should focus on the problem of how China should act in the third industrial revolution, in particular, we should find a breakthrough. I should strive to make breakthroughs in key areas of technological innovation, such as Internet and new energy, so as to promote development in other fields. Another example is the solar energy industry. We should focus on tackling the problem. By 2020, the conversion rate will be increased to 35%, which will replace coal and electricity and create huge dividends for our country. This will not only alleviate the huge cost that our country has spent in maintaining overseas energy transportation corridors, but also make our country stand on the moral highland of global ecological civilization. The "China mode" will be more convincing.

Fifth, we should attach great importance to the debt problem, appropriately control the scale of foreign debts, and plan for the pension industry ahead of schedule. In 2025, China will be a "debt" of debt. When China has entered an aging society, its debt will be even heavier. We should put the whole economic development efficiency up and put the debt in place. Otherwise, the aging society will come and our country will be overwhelmed. At present, a large number of technical investments in China do not generate cash flow, and the rate of economic return is not high. In light of the realistic background that China is about to enter the aging society, we should vigorously develop the pension industry as an important part of the industrial development during the "13th Five-Year" period. Now we should start planning in detail and create conditions for social capital to enter.