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    Xu Bin: Reduction Is Not Related To Stock Market.

    2015/2/6 12:38:00 42

    Xu BinDrop In The Stock Market

    The people's Bank of China decided to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points since February 5, 2015.

    At the same time, in order to further enhance the ability of financial institutions to support structural adjustment, increase support for small and micro enterprises, agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and major water conservancy projects, urban commercial banks and non County commercial banks with small and micro enterprises' loans to achieve a targeted drop in standards should reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China will reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 4 percentage points.

    The two round of the second round of brokerage business is under way. Reporters learned from a number of brokerages that more than 10 brokerages such as century securities, Hongxin securities, Tibet Tongxin, Hualin securities and so on are currently conducting two rounds of on-site inspection.

    A number of people familiar with the matter said that the focus of the inspection is whether there is a problem of illegal opening of accounts to unqualified investors, the issuance of contracts for the maturity of margin contracts, margin financing for non conforming customers, and no mandatory liquidation of customers.

    In addition, the development of the financing business and the umbrella trust of the counter market with financing function will be inspected.

    Ma Jun, chief economist of the central bank, explained that the balance of payments of the central bank has been greatly changed compared with the past. At present, despite the current account surplus, there has been a deficit in capital and financial projects. The change in foreign exchange holdings is no longer the main channel to create basic currency.

    In other words, as the central bank has basically withdrawn from normal intervention in the foreign exchange market, foreign exchange is no longer a source of long-term liquidity. Therefore, other channels and tools for liquidity must be used.

    Against this background, it is necessary to raise the monetary multiplier by reducing the accuracy, and cooperate with other monetary policy tools to maintain the reasonable growth rate of the broad money and the appropriate level of liquidity, so as to ensure the steady growth of the scale of loans and social financing.

    In addition to the balance of payments factors, seasonal factors are also one of the considerations of the central bank.

    During the period before the Spring Festival, the amount of cash needed to be put in is very large. There will be a large liquidity gap. It is necessary to reduce the reserve ratio and open market operation to ensure liquidity.

    In addition, changes in macroeconomic conditions also require the central bank to maintain prudent monetary policy through pre fine-tuning, to maintain a moderate degree of policy and play a steady growth role.

    In today's announcement of the reduction of the content, in addition to the financial institutions, there is another important aspect of the Agricultural Development Bank and the standard city commercial banks, agricultural firms directional reduction.

    This reflects the government's intention to continue to intensify structural adjustment, support weak links and key areas such as small and micro and three rural issues.

    These targeted measures will help stabilize the structure and play a role of steady growth to a certain extent.

    The subsequent effect of this reduction and early interest rate reduction policy should help to reduce market interest rates and corporate financing costs.

    The European Central Bank said on Wednesday that the bank would cancel an immunity granted to Greek bonds, which allows Greek financial institutions to use Greek bonds as collateral to obtain loans from the European Central Bank.

    Affected by this news, the US stock market high diving plunged rapidly, and the S & P lowered by 0.42%.

    The ECB issued a statement saying: "it is impossible to assume that the review of the aid plan will be completed successfully."

    Because the sovereign debt rating of Greek bonds is "junk", it is lower than the minimum threshold set by the European Central Bank.

    Previously, Greek financial institutions had used the above immunity to use Greek bonds as collateral so that they could borrow from the European Central Bank at a lower borrowing cost.

    Greek financial institutions can continue to raise funds through the ECB's emergency loan scheme.

    According to this plan, the credit risk of loans is borne by the Central Bank of Greece, and the interest rate of such loans is higher.

    Greece will stay at least two months longer. According to Bloomberg February 5th quoted sources, Greek Prime Minister Tsipras refused to accept more loans because of Greek creditors' refusal to accept the debt restructuring demanded by the country, which will lead to cash strain in the country as early as next month.

    According to one source, unless Greece's "three carriages" international creditors increase the short-term borrowing limit of 15 billion euros, the Greek government may run out of cash in February 25th.

    Three weeks ago, international officials also said that Greece could stay in the middle of this year.

    However, the source said that if the Tsipras administration uses the social security fund and suspends some spending, it may still be able to support the extra few weeks.

    But by the end of March, he will face the choice of life and death: either accepting the bonus from the supplementary provisions of the international creditors or waving goodbye to the euro area.

    The European bond market has gone crazy. Since the European Central Bank has entered the era of negative interest rates, the European bond market has gone crazy. Not only does the multinational bond yields slide into the negative range, but now even the corporate bonds have a negative interest rate.

    Yesterday's close, Swiss food manufacturer Nestle 2016 bonds yield only -0.2%, Nestle's rating is Aa2, belongs to the third high rating.

    Bloomberg's report said: as deflation threatens the fragile economies of the euro area, some investors are considering holding Nestle's bonds, even if the rate of return is zero, because the yields of developed countries' sovereign debt, including German bonds, which have exceeded $2 trillion, have become negative, and the ECB levying 0.2% interest on cash deposits.

    The conclusion of Deutsche Bank is quite brilliant: the low interest rate is unbelievable, the yield of 2 - year treasury bonds in 9 European countries is negative, and it is only a matter of time before the rate of return on corporate bonds denominated in euros is copied.

    Buffett, who wants to go to Europe to sweep cargo billionaire Buffett, said on Wednesday that he might buy a small business in Western Europe and would like to buy more overseas.

    "We want to buy more businesses around the world," Berkshire Hathaway founder Buffett told Fox BusinessNetwork.

    Buffett's previous investments were mostly concentrated in the United States.

    In his letter to shareholders last year, he said, "the United States is the main source of opportunities."

    As the pace of economic growth in the United States outpaces many other developed markets and at the same time, valuations have also risen, Buffett has pointed out in recent years that it is difficult to find the so-called investment "elephant".

    In addition, Buffett also believes that the Federal Reserve Committee (/FED) will find it difficult to raise interest rates this year.

    Historically, US Treasury yields remain at a low level and are expected to continue to slide this year.

    Buffett said his "least desirable asset" is the US 30 year bond.

    Central bank today

    Market overt

    The reverse repurchase 30 billion central bank will carry out 30 billion yuan 28 days reverse repurchase operation in the open market today. This week through the open market operation to achieve net put in 90 billion yuan.

    This is the Central Bank of China in January 22nd after a year to restart the reverse repurchase tool, the fifth consecutive reverse repurchase to the market liquidity.

    Last week, the central bank twice launched a net operation of 55 billion yuan a week.

    On Tuesday, the central bank conducted a 55 billion yuan RMB 28 day reverse repurchase and a 35 billion yuan 7 day reverse repurchase, excluding the 30 billion yuan reverse repurchase this week, with a net weekly investment of 90 billion.

    The world economy is still on top of debt. Consulting firm McKinsey warned that the world economy is still built on debt.

    The company's assessment found that since 2007, the debts of governments, enterprises, households and financial companies in 47 countries have increased by 57 trillion to 199 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to 17% of their total GDP.

    Although the proportion of 17% is less than 23% of the first seven years of the financial crisis, it is undoubtedly a mockery for those who want the world economy to take a more sustainable path after the great depression.

    In the past seven years, the government debt of only 47 countries has increased by $25 trillion, while emerging market economies account for nearly 50% of all incremental debt.

    McKinsey says there is no reason to think that the rising trend of debt will soon end.

    When the tide of financial reform is coming, industrial capital that hesitates is no longer a spectator.

    Following the Tianmao group's acquisition of Guohua life insurance and Xishui securities plus Tianan property insurance, yesterday, another industry leader, the pan Hai holding company announced two announcements, and increased the layout of the financial sector, and announced that it would pform into a comprehensive business listed company of "real estate + Finance + strategic investment".

    Unwittingly, the giant financial assets of private enterprises have become a common practice.

    According to the information statistics of Shanghai Securities Daily, nearly 100 listed companies have entered the financial business in recent three months, involving more than 100 billion yuan.

    It is meaningless to discuss whether or not to take financial resources at the moment, and industrial capital should stand to seize the opportunities of future development.

    Economic pformation

    Above the draught, we need to weigh up whether or not we have the ability to base ourselves on the financial industry.

    In the eyes of a senior analyst, financiers have a future.

    The Internet business is still the focus of monitoring by the industry and Commerce Department. Yesterday, the video conference on consumer protection of the national industrial and commercial system was held yesterday. Ma Zhengqi, deputy director general of the State Administration for Industry and commerce, said that this year, we will draw up relevant regulations on the quality inspection of network sales and promote the quality inspection of network sales.

    Although Ali and SAIC's "war of words" erupted from the sampling inspection issue, the two sides shook hands and temporarily ended, but the information disclosed by the conference showed that the network electricity supplier will still be the focus of supervision this year.

    Referring to the key points of this year's consumer rights protection work, Ma Zhengqi said that we should adhere to the principles of "consumerism and administration according to law".

    The General Administration of industry and Commerce will formulate the regulations on the supervision and management of commodity quality in the circulation sector and the relevant regulations on the quality inspection of online sales of commodities this year, and promulgated the "guidelines on the return of goods for 7 days" implemented by the electric business enterprises, so as to improve the standardization, procedure and legalization of consumer rights protection.

    According to Ma Qizheng, for the key industries and enterprises that focus on consumer complaints and quality inspection, the industry and Commerce Department will carry out administrative interviews and urge the operators to rectify the situation. "If the operator talks about it, it will be punished severely."

    Department of States

    Approval items

    From quantity reduction to quality improvement in February 4th, the State Council issued the notice of the State Council on standardizing the administrative examination and approval activities of the State Council and improving the administrative examination and approval work (hereinafter referred to as the notice), and proposed that the administrative examination and approval should be standardized and the "sunshine approval" should be implemented.

    "As of the beginning of this year, the State Council has abolished and delegated 733 administrative approval items, accounting for 1/3 of the 1700 items, and has completed ahead of schedule Li Keqiang's goal of cutting over 1/3 administrative approval matters."

    Sun Baiying, a professor at the school of public management of Renmin University of China, explained to reporters that the notice marked a new stage in the reform of administrative examination and approval from "reducing quantity" to "raising quality".

    Sun Baiying further explained that "the two cornerstone of the notice is rule of law and openness, and it is expected that the operation of administrative examination and approval will be well regulated."

    Although the notice also involves exploring and improving cross departmental examination and approval, the most important thing is to focus on the reform of the operation mode of administrative examination and approval which can be completed by a single Department of the State Council. Therefore, it can only be called the 1 edition of the quality improvement reform of administrative examination and approval. We expect to introduce the 2 edition of the reform of cross departmental approval process as soon as possible.

    Daily review: monetary policy is the central issue of all macroeconomic analysts. The reason why monetary policy is changeable and unpredictable lies in the unpredictable economic situation.

    But in fact, the central bank's monetary policy in the future has predicted that the rate reduction and interest reduction are not negotiable, and it will last for a long time.

    After that, it is difficult to guess the specific timing of the policy.

    No matter what the root cause of the depreciation of the renminbi, anyway, money is starting to run outwards. The past high reserve ratio and the monetary policy controlled by the credit limit must be

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