Stimulus Measures Or Push China's Stock Market Up 20%

According to foreign media 11 news, Ping An Russell investment management research department general manager Brian Ingram said in an interview, with the government to increase monetary stimulus and promote the reform of state-owned enterprises, China's stock market this year may rise 20%.

Ping An Russell pointed out that with the government's downward adjustment interest rate And encourage state-owned enterprises to go overseas, and corporate profits will rise in the second half of the year.

　　 Ping An Russell China's exports and manufacturing sector are expected to decline in January, and the central bank lowered this month. commercial bank There may be another move after the deposit reserve ratio.

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Where is the market short of money?

Is there any shortage of money in China's stock market? In fact, the performance of the market has already given the answer.

In December 9, 2014, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities were able to exceed 1 trillion and 200 billion of the total turnover in the whole day, achieving the largest level of energy in the history of A shares. In the period before and after, the overall volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets still hovered above the level of one trillion yuan per day.

However, after two months, the single day volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities rapidly shrank to below 500 billion yuan. By the end of February 10th this year, the volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets could be slightly higher than 400 billion yuan, which has shrunk by more than half of the previous 1 trillion and 200 billion peak.

This shows that the A share market is not short of money, and the core factor determining the market liquidity is whether the market has sufficient investment attraction.

This Tuesday is the key time for the intensive issuance of new shares. According to statistics, 24 new issues will be issued between February 9th and 12, of which 17 will be occupied on Tuesday. Combined with the size of the current issue of new shares, the accumulated frozen funds will be as high as 2 trillion and 300 billion.

Hit the issue of new shares intensive issuance, the market also began to appear obvious lack of money signals.

According to statistics, on the same day, a number of reverse repo rates rose sharply. Among them, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's one day treasury bond repurchase rate rose 6042.5% to 53.440% annual yield. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's one day treasury bond repurchase rate also soared 9899.33%, reaching 29.998% of the annualized yield.

According to past rules, the corresponding repo rate will rise to varying degrees at the end of each month, at the end of the quarter or at the end of the year. Even if the cycle is shortened to a shorter time point, the repo rate will rise more or less before and after Thursday in a week.

However, in view of the sharp rise in the repo rate, the core reason can only be attributed to the intensive issuance of new shares.

It is undeniable that looking back at the previous rounds of IPO, there is a sharp rise in repo rate.