Cao Zhongming: The Black Swan Of The Stock Market Will Expose The Risks Of The Two Risks.

January 19, 2015 is a "black" day for China's stock market. On the same day, the two cities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets plummeted, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 260 points, and the biggest daily decline in nearly seven years was achieved by 7.70%. In a miserable market, the financial stocks that had been so full of cattle almost all stopped.

There is no love without reason or hate without any reason. The stock market has staged "Black Swans". The CBRC commissioned the new loan deal and the securities and futures trading of the securities and Futures Commission by the SFC to become a target. However, the author believes that the CBRC's new loan policy is still in the stage of soliciting opinions, and the lethality of the stock market is limited, and the SFC's strict regulation of the two financial businesses of the broker is the real "culprit."

Margin trading started in March 2010. Due to the limited number of underlying securities, the low number of securities firms involved in the pilot and the high threshold, the initial development of the pilot was relatively slow. With the expansion of the underlying securities and the increasing number of participating securities companies, the two financial businesses of the securities companies began to enter the fast lane of development, especially after the scale of the two financial balances exceeded 100 billion yuan in January 2013. In November 21st last year, the central bank's interest rate cut brought an opportunity for the explosive growth of the two financial balances. The scale of the increase of 100 billion yuan has greatly shortened from about a few months to about ten trading days. At present, the balance of margin between the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded two trillion yuan.

Because of the high interest rate and low risk of the two financial businesses, the securities companies also have a soft spot for the two financial businesses. The two financial business has also become a new profit growth point for the securities dealers after self operation, brokerage and investment banking. For example, in 2013, the income of margin trading and margin trading of 115 securities companies amounted to 18 billion 462 million yuan, compared with 5 billion 260 million yuan in 2012, an increase of more than 250%. It is precisely because of the huge interests behind, it has also led some brokers to take risks. Illegal operation 。

According to the relevant regulations, the threshold for investors to participate in margin trading is 500 thousand yuan. However, many brokerages continue to lower their threshold in order to gain more benefits from the two financial businesses. Some brokerages even drop the threshold to 50 thousand yuan, and the threshold is also nominal. On the other hand, some brokerages have increased the leverage ratio of 1:1 to 1:2, and even to 1:3. investment risk 。

Therefore, in from December 15th to 28th last year, the CSRC conducted a field inspection of the financing business of 45 securities companies, and found that there was no violation. Because of the violation, 12 brokerages, including CITIC Securities and Haitong Securities, were punished in varying degrees. The regulatory authorities also reiterated that they should not finance securities lending to clients whose securities assets are less than 500 thousand yuan.

Participation in the two irregularities business To punish and reconfirm the threshold of 500 thousand yuan is undoubtedly a bad thing for the two financial businesses. Since last July, especially the bull market after the central bank cut interest rates, blue chip stocks have been eye-catching, such as financial stocks (including banks, insurance, brokerage stocks) and other investors who are competing for financing, and regulators are rushing to attack Securities Dealers' margin trading business, which will inevitably lead to the sale of financing plates. As financial stocks are exponentially weighted stocks, the fall of financial stocks has driven the index down, resulting in the "Black Swans" of the stock market under the influence of the negative effect.

In fact, this is not the first "rehearsal" of the two financial risks. The case of Changchun nine biochemical and Chengfei integration caused by the collapse of the share price led to the explosion of the stock market. It has long warned the market of two risks. The regulatory authorities regulate the influence of the two financial businesses of the securities companies, and the stampede phenomenon is inevitable. As of last Friday, the two financial balance was as high as 1 trillion and 117 billion yuan. On Monday, the two financial balance dropped to 1 trillion and 98 billion, a decrease of about 19 billion yuan, indicating that there was a stock market selling stocks when the stock market plummeted.

The black swan, which was staged on Monday, exposes many aspects of the two financial businesses. First, the development of financing and margin trading is seriously unbalanced. In the two trillion dollar balance, the margin balance can be ignored. The "lame" of margin trading is not conducive to the rational valuation of stocks, nor is it conducive to the balance of share prices. It is also easy to cause the malpractice of the two financial businesses to rise and fall when they fall, and further enlarge the risk of the market. Two, it is a very irresponsible performance that the securities companies illegally participate in the two financial businesses, leaving their interests to themselves and leaving the risk to the market and investors. Moreover, because of the two financial irregularities of securities companies, the negative effects generated by them are not a drop in the stock market crash on Monday. The related stocks will be under pressure, and the whole market will be under pressure.

Therefore, it is very necessary for regulatory authorities to regulate the two financial businesses of securities companies. It is worth noting that punishment for illegal brokers has reproduced the low cost of violation, which is also a big failure in regulating the two financial businesses.