Jin Xuewei: No Bull And No Bear.

The stock market will not have no bubbles and no bubbles, because it is a virtual market.

As a virtual market, of course, there is no need to assess and anticipate.

Such assessments and expectations are not always accurate. They will always be more or less adulterated with some subjective prejudices, sometimes overestimated, sometimes underestimated, sometimes too optimistic and sometimes too pessimistic.

For the US stock market, the thirty or forty years from 30 to 60s in twentieth Century were mainly undervalued.

First, after the Great Depression of the 30s of last century, radical investors and trust funds were basically annihilated.

Two, many problems exposed in the stock market crash have made the general public fear the stock market and the stock market's reputation.

Some people say that the stock market is like a casino, not as good as a casino. At that time, the stock market was almost the same in the eyes of the American public.

The three is to stick to the gold standard, and the speed of banknote printing machine is slow. Objectively, there is not much money to speculate in stocks, and stock prices are generally low.

To what extent? Assets valued at $1 are reflected in stock prices, often at $0.5, or even $0.25.

Against this background, many valuable investment masters, such as John Neff and John Templeton, have emerged. Graham is the best among them.

Grignard lost his fortune in the collapse of the last century in 30s, because he thought the stock had been undervalued and half the hillside was full.

As a result, there is still a low price at low prices, and as the business deteriorates, the undervalued stocks are no longer underestimated.

But what he admired is that he did not give up. He not only made a comeback, but also continued to hold high the banner of value investing, becoming a bright light and a hopeful star of Chr (34) in the dark era of Chr (34).

The stock market reform initiated by President Kennedy brought many people back to the stock market and made the stock market a mass market again.

After the Chr (34) boiling years of the 60s of last century, Chr (34) and the gold dollar of 70s of last century were decoupled, the overall underestimation of stock in the past was replaced by overall overestimation.

In the past, $1 of assets sold for $0.5, becoming $2, $4, or even higher.

We often talk about how old's value investment philosophy is, but most people, including those who often say value investing, may not know the fact that in 1976, about 1 years before Graham's death, in an interview with reporters, he clearly admitted that his value investment philosophy and methods were outdated.

Almost at the same time, Buffett, an old timer, had a move: to disband his partnership fund.

He said he did not understand this market, nor could he grasp it.

The traditional concept and method of value investment only adapt to the stock with absolute investment value, and can not adapt to the stock with only relative investment value in the bubble age.

The way Buffett finally found it was to combine Graham with Fisher and introduce Charlie Munger's concept of Chr (34) moat Chr (34), set the foundation of value investment in the future and build on the basis of long-term compound interest, which is very demanding for the company's selection criteria and capabilities.

When the stock is estimated by the existing assets or liquidation value, cash flow and dividends, there is absolutely an attractive positive return. The stock has absolute investment value.

When these points can not be estimated, and only by future estimation, will there be attractive positive returns, the stock will have only relative investment value.

When we can only use relative investment value to not measure the stock with absolute investment value, our investment life has actually become a bubble survival, but sometimes the bubbles are bigger and sometimes smaller.

Sorting and grading bubbles is a more interesting thing in the bubble era.

For individual stocks, there are two bubbles in the lowest level.

First, the valuation is lower than the long-term average, preferably below the average of the previous year.

At the same time, the company's profit is still growing, and the growth momentum is good.

This is my favorite kind of value stock.

Two, although the current valuation is higher than its average level, the long term compound interest calculated by Buffett's law is enough to offset its overvaluation and bring good positive returns.

In the bubble era, such stocks can be said to be frothy.

I have repeatedly introduced the assessment methods of these two kinds of stocks.

The former is based on 10 years average price earnings ratio and last year's average price earnings ratio.

The latter is based on a reliable profit growth rate to estimate its earnings per share after 10 years, and then compare it with the current stock price, and figure out how much the compound interest will be paid in 10 years at the current price.

The two method, the former is John Neff's core competitiveness, and the latter is Buffett's core competitiveness.

The highest level of bubble is: it is totally impossible to infer the value of history and reality by saying that it still has value. It can only be supported by overoptimistic expectations. What is worse is that this stock is cyclical stock.

Remember the Daniel market in 2007? Because of the rapid growth of profits, some big cyclical stocks have been constantly enlarged their growth space and continuously raised their valuation level and price targets because of the rapid growth of profits.

In the bear market in 2008, the most dangerous was the stock, and after many years of N toss, they were mostly lying on the ground, several times the highest price.

This type of bubble is often accompanied by another phenomenon, that is, partial correctness and overall absurdity.

In part, the reason why people continue to be optimistic may be very strong, and the logic is very strong.

But when it comes to the overall measurement, its absurdity appears immediately.

Chr (34) your valuation really makes sense, but have you considered one problem?

If all of these stocks rise to such a valuation level, how much will our stock market go to?

What is the market value of the total market capitalization? How much do you think the market capitalization is possible? Is the market share ratio reasonable? Is it consistent with the stock market's principle of economic mapping? Chr (34) is a question that I will ask about such stock recommendation in recent years.

From this point of view, when securities companies and financial stocks are in the ascendant, I would say that the high proportion of financial stock market is the biggest bubble in China's stock market and the only one.

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This bubble has a devastating effect on the overall economic operation of the society and must be resolutely lowered.

How to reduce, how to adjust its internal structure, make its final valuation reasonable and market share reasonable, is another topic.

3 attacks and 3400 points in one month have failed.

According to the bull market law of Chr (34) top on Chr (34), 3478 points can not be broken, indicating that the bull market forecast is basically bankrupt - only a round of Mavericks.

However, with the sharp fall in interest this Thursday, there was a statement about the coming of the bear market.

Lao Jin's view is Chr (34) no bull and no bear Chr (34).

In form, this is a 4 wave adjustment since 1849.

According to the principle of alternation and the sum of the ratio of 1 waves and 4 waves, the trend of 1 tends to be 1. The maximum 1.2 judgement is that the current adjustment is in the form of balance. The basic target is near the 2980 point, and the limit point will not fall below 2700 points.