Guo Shiliang: Crazy Gem

Since the end of 2012, the bull market of GEM has lasted for more than two years. Recently, the gem continued to go out of the strong upward trend regardless of the market's query voice, and once broke through the 1800 integer mark, once again refresh its record highs.

Specifically, in recent years, the total market value of the growth enterprise market has increased significantly. Up to now, the dynamic PE of GEM has reached 73 times, and the corresponding total market capitalization has also broken through the 2 trillion and 500 billion pass. From the current 413 listed GEM stocks, the total market capitalization of more than 10 billion yuan of the stock up to 60. Among them, Dongfang fortune, LETV net and blue water source stock are above the total market value level of more than 30 billion yuan. At the same time, the GEM market has frequently generated more than 100 yuan of high priced stocks. At present, in the A share market, there are 9 stocks with a price of more than 100 yuan, and GEM stocks occupy 7 seats.

So what causes the long-term bull market of gem? It is generally believed that the market performance is more or less related to its fundamentals. However, under the actual circumstances, the performance of the A share market has deviated from the fundamentals. Nevertheless, in terms of fundamentals, the growth enterprise market last year has also made a good achievement.

According to statistics, the growth rate of gem in 2014 is expected to increase to 27.4%, a certain increase over 2013. From the results of the listed companies listed on GEM, 275 of the 413 GEM companies appeared to have reported results, accounting for 70% of the total. In addition, in the performance of good news. Listed company More than 36 listed companies have seen a trend of over 100% performance growth. However, at the same time, in the growth enterprise market, there were 25 or 79 GEM companies with a significant decrease in performance or a drop of less than 50%, accounting for 6.05% and 19.13% respectively. On the whole, compared with the average profit growth of the main board market last year, the growth rate of the growth enterprise market is much brighter than that of the main board market. It is worth mentioning that behind the gradual improvement of the growth rate of the gem, it is a series of listed companies on GEM. Merger Process. In fact, as early as last May, the introduction of new rules for gem refinancing also accelerated the M & a process of gem, which also lowered many thresholds for GEM companies, promoted the pace of M & A, and also had a positive impact on the performance of GEM listed companies.

Earnings growth is improving. Gem One reason for taking cattle, but another boost factor, is the deep involvement of the social security fund as a national team. In fact, it also creates a good driving force for the long-term bull market of the gem. Throughout recent years, the market is mostly driven by capital. However, in the environment of maintaining the market trend of stock capital, some of the liquidity has also been shifted to the growth enterprise market. Obviously, under the premise that the growth rate of profit growth of the growth enterprise market is improving gradually, the deep rooted social security fund really brings certain impetus to the growth enterprise market. Perhaps this is also a major reason why the growth enterprise market is not too high. However, many problems have begun to emerge in the continuous growth of the growth enterprise market. On the one hand, the overall price earnings ratio of GEM listed companies is high; on the other hand, it is the intensive cash flow of senior executives of GEM companies. For example, according to institutional data, in from January 5th to 27th this year, a total of 37 GEM listed companies were reduced by their own executives, involving up to 76 transactions in the reduction of transactions, involving 51 executives, and the total amount of cash collected amounted to 1 billion 500 million yuan. However, there is a clear contrast with the phenomenon of frequent reduction. At the same time period, only 3 of the GEM listed companies showed signs of increasing holdings, and the funds involved were only about 6000000 yuan.

The author believes that although the GEM market has gradually exposed some problems which are worrying the market, this is not enough to end the long-term bull market of the gem. Compared with the main board market, the growth enterprise market not only has the advantage of improving profitability, but also has the characteristics of low market value and strong controllability. Especially when the current management emphasizes the "deleveraging" of the stock market, it is unlikely that the motherboard market will replicate the earlier surge. And in the two financial growth rate obvious turning point, in fact, also indicates that the main board market has entered a pattern of adjustment in the medium and short term. As a result, in the context of the decline in the attractiveness of the main board market, some large capital institutions will also turn their attention to the growth enterprise market gradually, bringing more liquidity support to the continued strong market of the growth enterprise market.

This shows that you can't understand the crazy venture board.