He Wan Man: Why Does The Stock Market Fall Completely?

On Wednesday evening, the central bank announced that the central bank announced a comprehensive reduction of quasi directional reduction, but the Shanghai Composite Index fell 37 points on Thursday, and dropped 60 points on Friday. The Shenzhen stock index, the small and medium-sized board index and the GEM board mean no drop. The overall reduction of the stock market has led to a sharp fall in the stock market. It is said that the drop in the quota will bring about 600000000000 increase funds. After two days of reduction, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities have shrunk in the market value by more than 1 trillion and 100 billion.

Some people say that this is the next week will send 24 new shares in advance bloodletting, others say that it is expected to drop early, A shares see light dead, and others say next week's stock options hit, and some people say that the Spring Festival is close to many hearts without love, the size of the lifting of the ban...

In my opinion, these are not the main reasons for the collapse.

The issue of new shares will, of course, draw blood, but the big blood may not be frozen, and 2 trillion of the funds will be taken for granted.

Yes, next week, IPO will be the largest number of new shares since the new shares are restarted, but the total amount of funds raised will be about 13000000000, similar to that of December last year.

Besides, option is a neutral tool. When the margin trading was launched, it was not regarded as a bad thing, and the 50% of the big market was not pushed by the two financial institutions.

When it falls, stock analysts should try their best to find some reasons for "bad profits".

In my view, the main reason for the decline is that the reduction is unlikely to bring about incremental funding.

So-called

Bringing 600 billion of the money is only 113 trillion percentage point savings, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the deposit reserve ratio, plus the point of directional reduction.

The problem is that this reduction is mainly due to the fact that the balance of payments situation in China has changed a lot compared with the past. At present, despite the current account surplus, there has been a deficit in capital and financial projects, and the change in foreign exchange earnings is no longer the main channel to create a basic currency.

Since January 2007, the central bank has started the deposit reserve ratio as the monetary control tool, starting with only 9%, that is, the deposit of commercial banks will only turn 9% into the central bank as capital.

Since then, the rate has been raised to 21.5% in June 2011. The high reserve ratio is the only reason in the world. The reason is that the balance of payments surplus is huge. At most, it will increase by $about 400000000000 a year.

The rapid growth of foreign exchange has forced the central bank to invest in the corresponding renminbi funds, which is popularly known as printing money. About 400000000000 dollars is 3 trillion yuan, plus the "multiplier effect". Therefore, the central bank has to raise the deposit rate frequently, in order to hedge the large amount of foreign exchange earnings.

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However, since last year, the situation has changed since the second half of last year.

At the end of June last year, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at US $3 trillion and 990 billion and began to turn around in the second half of the year, just as it was approaching us $4 trillion.

The end of the three quarter was US $3 trillion and 890 billion, and it fell to $3 trillion and 840 billion at the end of the year.

Especially in the month of December, the international reserve assets under capital account decreased by US $30 billion.

Obviously, with the slow growth of China's economy and the high price of real estate, capital is still out of flow. China's foreign exchange reserves are likely to enter a slow or even downward path.

In this case, the central bank does not need to extort a large amount of RMB because of its high foreign exchange reserves. Up to 21 trillion of the deposit reserve is locked in the central bank, which is neither necessary nor a waste of social resources.

Some economists have pointed out that "the deposit reserve ratio has been in a state of extreme cold", which is very reasonable.

There is no doubt that the deposit reserve ratio in the future is likely to continue to decline.

However, in the past few years, the central bank (because of foreign exchange) was forced to spit out trillions of Renminbi, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points to release about 600000000000, not much, but less.

Originally, poor economic data (the manufacturing PMI in January dropped to 49.8, while the United States was 53.9 in the same period), and the recent fall in the renminbi has already made the stock market crumbling.