Gui Haoming: Why Can Gem Be Counterattacked?

It is obviously appropriate to use the "counter attack" to describe the recent trend of the gem. Because not long ago, there were still many voices in the market that looked at the gem, and the view that its index would be broken down was very few. Because of this, when the gem continued to refresh its historical record, some people would call it "counterattack".

Looking back at the stock market quotations over the past few months, it is easy to find that the trend of gem is not so consistent with the market, and even a long time away. When the market started in late November last year, the gem didn't show any unusual performance. It was up to the market in almost a month. But by the end of December, the situation began to change. By early January this year, the gem index fell to 1429, the lowest point since the end of August. At this point, the Shanghai composite index is close to 2600, which is the highest since December 2009.

Investors who have experienced this wave of market know that the big financial sector represented by banks, brokerages and so on is hot. Thus driving the overall blue chip stocks upward, so that some stagflation years of heavyweight index soared. At this point, the funds on the market are concentrated on the blue chips, and the small and medium-sized market capitalization is short of people's interest. Investors holding small and medium sized stocks try to cash in to transfer funds to large cap stocks, so there is a "stampede" in small and medium capitalization stocks, and the gem with relatively high price is the most affected. Perhaps now people can say that the performance of the gem was very poor at the end of last year to the beginning of this year. The most fundamental reason was that the market structure had changed at that time, and the blue chip stock occupied the absolute leading power in that period of time, thus deducting the extreme "28 phenomenon".

But the question is whether this situation can be regarded as a normal form of stock market, or is it the most basic feature of the current market? There is no doubt that there are great differences in and outside the market. If we stick to the traditional investment concept, we may continue to be optimistic about the market share of stock market. After all, the average price earnings ratio and the net market rate of these stocks are not too high. However, in the context of economic transformation, economic restructuring and slow growth of economic growth, it is obviously inappropriate to continue to focus on traditional industries, especially upstream investment products. In the most active market of blue chips, some people are very keen to suggest that those stocks that are substantially rising are mostly distributed in the long term industry. What they need is to go to capacity and lack growth seriously. This situation may still be maintained at the beginning of the market, especially when the market funds are relatively abundant, and in any case, we can talk about the concept of valuation repair.

But when the market has risen a great deal, and the supply of funds is also tense due to various factors, this situation can not be further extended. In fact, from the early January, the gem began to rebound from the low level, before the Spring Festival less than a month and a half, the biggest increase has reached 33.58%, and the Shanghai Stock Index 50 index has dropped. Why can gem be successful in counterattack? The reason is not complicated, because the market has to attach importance to growth and theme when the market is further developing and valuing repair is turned into value discovery. Blue-chip share Some of them also have such characteristics, so we can not say that they will not have any opportunities later. But at the same time, there will be more stocks such as gem, which will be more popular among investors. Recently, the concept of Internet has become popular. The biggest beneficiary is the gem, which explains why the gem is going to go so strong.

In other words, the current market is in Capital side In a relaxed background, it is natural for capital to focus on the low valuation of large cap stocks at a certain stage at the beginning, but this can only be an investment tactic rather than a strategy. It is undeniable that the rise of blue chips in a certain period is reasonable, but it does not constitute a negation of the long-term upward trend of the growth enterprise market. In the counter attack of the growth enterprise market, people see that economic transition To see the impact of new economic development on enterprises and the change of economic structure by innovation mode are obviously irreversible trends. Therefore, when people look forward to the future development of the market, we should pay close attention to the investment value of the large blue chips, but we can not avoid a large number of investment opportunities that exist in the growth enterprise market. In operation, investors can choose according to their investment and risk preference, but they must recognize the characteristics of market operation in their minds, otherwise they may be wrong in finding the current draught.