The Index First Suppressed And Then The Yang Silver Gem Entered The Seesaw.

As of noon, the Shanghai composite index reported 3085.09 points, an increase of 9.18 points, or 0.30%, the Shenzhen composite index at 10859.48 points, up 68.38 points, or 0.63%, the gem index fell 0.55%, and the SME board index dropped 0.08%.

The industry index of Shen Yi class rose much earlier in the morning. Among them, non silver finance, food and beverage and building decoration sector rose by 2.67%, 1.41% and 1.05% respectively, compared with real estate.

And the media index fell the top.

Concept plate also fell more or less, building energy efficiency, mobile resale, decorative garden index rose the top.

With the continuous progress of deleveraging, level two

Volatility is increasing and money making effect is decreasing.

Against this background, the certainty income generated by "beating the new" is undoubtedly more attractive.

This week, the market ushered in a large-scale new trendy. The pressure of capital diversion will put pressure on the market, especially the number of new shares issued today and tomorrow.

At the same time, the 40 50ETF contracts will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange today, and the short-term anticipation of "helping up and helping down" will also create a certain disturbance to the market.

However, the big logic of the dividend reform has not changed. With the deepening of reform and the continuous introduction of favorable policies, the logic is constantly strengthening.

In addition, the probability of "red envelope market" appears before and after the Spring Festival, which also strengthens the desire to fund the bottom.

From the early market trend, the index was suppressed first, and non silver finance, a former faucet, had been pushed up again, releasing the signal of the counter offensive; however,

The index down reflects the seesaw characteristics of stock funds.

Analysts expect that, under the pattern of random factors resonance, the index will fluctuate between 3000-3400 points, and investors can follow the index fluctuation to sell high.

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According to Peng Bo, chief economist of the Bank of communications, Lian Ping today said that the interest rate cut will be less effective than before, and the Central Bank of China will be cautious about cutting interest rates.

He predicted that the central bank would also reduce the reserve requirement ratio 1-2 times before the end of this year.

He believes that the RMB is facing downward pressure. It is expected that the renminbi will depreciate 3-5% against the US dollar this year, but the possibility of a significant depreciation in the next 3-5 years is very small.

He also said that the short-term devaluation of the RMB will help China's exports, and the long-term depreciation will not be conducive to the globalization of the RMB and capital investment overseas.

Wall Street's information website has introduced a more radical drop forecast from Macquarie Securities.

Larry Hu, China's chief economist of Macquarie Securities, wrote last week after the announcement of the China Central Bank's approval.

In the next five years, we believe that there will be at least 20 reductions in China, and the deposit reserve ratio will be reduced to below 10%.

He also said that (the Chinese government) regarded the reduction as a political mistake, which is regrettable to release the water discharge signal.

Reduction is only an ordinary monetary policy tool. When capital inflows decrease, it should be reduced.

It is believed that Dr. Zhong Zhengsheng, a Wall Street columnist, should be regarded as a neutral operator.

He wrote last week:

In 2015, China's basic monetary gap will be around 3 trillion.

Such a large scale gap is only too much pressure on structural monetary policy tools.

Therefore, this year's reduction is inevitable. It is only a matter of time. The Central Bank of China has chosen to lower the benchmark rate rather than reduce interest rates, mainly to offset the gap in the basic currency, but there are also considerations for maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate.

In general, there is not much controversy about the neutral characteristics of hedge against foreign exchange holdings.

Zhong Zhengsheng pointed out that in the view of the Central Bank of China, the reason why the financing cost of the real economy is still high is that the high debt ratio of the soft budget constraint platform has brought huge pressure on debt service and has been squeezed out of the financial resources of other economic entities.

Financial and other reforms are still in progress. It is hard to expect these economic entities to voluntarily reduce their debts. Therefore, it is necessary for the central bank to maintain a neutral and tight monetary environment and force them to leverage.