A Shares Welcome Positive Policy Support Period, Market Gravity Shift Upward

The policy is still the core factor that leads the fund to predict the trend of the market.

At present, the economic data is still in the doldrums, but in January, the macro level showed some signs of recovery. Some of the cyclical industries' cash flow has improved, and the debt contraction and capacity of some listed companies are near the end.

In January, the PMI of the manufacturing industry picked up. Although the disturbance of the Spring Festival was large, it still raised the expectation of economic stabilization.

The market is expected to support the housing policy reserve, including down two suites down payment.

At the same time, during the Spring Festival and after the holiday, we noticed that on the one hand, the active fiscal policy is being put into full force, for example, the increase of expenditure and the reduction of taxes and fees.

On the other hand, economic structural adjustment and continued policy easing are still the main keynote.

It is reported that some of the city commercial banks have been newly targeted, and now the interest rate reduction cycle has been opened. The central bank is responsible for the 26 issue of the financial times. Monetary policy should maintain a moderate and abundant liquidity. In the next stage, in order to cope with deflation, the central bank should timely and moderately adjust the legal reserve ratio and benchmark interest rate, and maintain appropriate liquidity.

Following the interest rate cut at the end of November and the fall in early February this year, the relaxation of future policy is still a matter of probability.

The market is expected to improve liquidity in March. Since February, the base money has been released to exceed 600 billion in February, and the currency in the open market has exceeded 200 billion in the short term. The estimated overtaking rate at the end of 2 is expected to rise to more than 2.7%.

In fact, a series of recent policy signals have reflected from the side that the policy keynote of this year's "two sessions" will continue to be policy reform and monetary easing. The two engines are expected to accelerate.

Policy easing, interest rates further decline, risk appetite further improved, the market valuation center is expected to move upward.

March entered the "two sessions" market timing.

After 1 and February's rest, the market went into the desired pattern of two weeks before the holiday, and the market volume could be released gently. The 3 trading days after the festival showed the characteristics of the performance of the heavyweight and emerging industries. During the period, there was a sign of accelerating growth, but the strength of the increase was still more moderate and sustainable, which was essentially different from the extreme style change of the fourth quarter of last year.

This year, a series of policies aimed at the stock market are basically reflected in the management's initiative regulation and control.

Because of the restriction between financing, options and futures, and because of the control of management, they will be pulled up if they fall too much.

In the short term, the slow cow must stick to a long period of small rise and fall, and the overall increase is limited.

Although the stock market in February is more active, the volume can not be well matched. In the short term, it will be better to expand the market in March.

From the focus of the market, first, the overall valuation of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has returned to 14.7 times, which is the average of the past 5 years.

In other words, the phenomenon of underestimation of large cap stocks has been corrected very well in the past one and a half months, but the current Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 current 1.55 times market rate and expected dividend yield of 2%. No matter what valuation method is adopted, blue chips are not expensive.

In addition, last year's fourth quarter expansion, the value revaluation and economic pformation is the main line, for example, the reform of state-owned enterprises and the "one belt road" will enhance the valuation of the traditional market, and the policy will continue to exert force in the future. The value of the assets will be revalued and ammunition will be provided, and there will be no risk since 2014.

The valuation increase brought by the fall is not over.

In recent years, foreign capital still increases A shares through various channels such as Shanghai, Hong Kong, RQFII and QFII.

Postganglionic agency expects the two financial balance is expected to enter a steady growth period. It is estimated that the balance of margin in 2015 is expected to exceed 14000 billion, a net increase of 300 billion ~5000 billion.

From a technical point of view, after the festival, the momentum of the big market has been further enhanced, and the market style has gradually shifted to full weight pfer since the beginning of the market.

It is expected that the market will still be frequently exchanged between small and medium-sized stocks in the short term. But since the Shanghai stock index is approaching the 3400 high point of the previous market, the pressure ahead is still to be digested.

At the same time, because of the high position of the fund, it will also restrict the heavyweight stocks to rise in the fourth quarter of last year.

According to the latest position calculation data, the partial position of the fund position has risen slightly in the previous stage, which is 88.55% higher than the weighted average position of the active equity fund.

Most fund managers believe that the market turbulence will be inevitable, and the overall maintenance index will increase, and the broad shocks will be upward.

Along with the policy's restraint on the fast bull market, the market has recently coexisted with the growth of value and growth, and the characteristics of the blue chip set up and the small stock singing show have appeared.

although

The valuation has reached an unprecedented level, and the risk has begun to appear. However, under the premise that the gem has not dropped sharply, it will further enhance the valuation level of the small and medium cap stocks. The SME board index is currently 45 times earnings and is still more than 30% above the historical high.

In addition, in the absence of a comprehensive reversal of the economy, the thematic investment brought about by reform is still the mainstream of capital favor, and the policy and valuation space of hot money will continue to play.

On the other hand, accompanied by

Expected warming, large capital continued to underestimate the value of blue chips, especially in the face of the valuation and gains of the entire small cap stocks, the main funds to sell blue chips will not be strong. On the contrary, the central line's main funds continue to overweight the allocation of blue chips.

At present, the market is broadly divided into three forces, one is the newly emerging industry share represented by the Internet, the other is the heavyweight stock represented by big finance, and the other is the traditional consumption and medicine plate with high defense value.

At present, the main category of hot money is the first category, and the main funds continue to intervene in the remaining two categories. We believe that before the market breaks through 3400 points, the first category will be the mainstream hot spot. Once the market is over, such as the interest rate reduction and other favorable policies, we will start the upsurge again. We have to turn to the second category, and buy third categories to wait for a boost.