Shandong Dezhou Cotton Planting Area Will Drop In 2015

Recently, cotton association of Dezhou city of Shandong province surveyed cotton farmers' intentions in 2015. The results showed that cotton planting willingness decreased significantly. In 2015, the cotton planting area decreased by about 42% compared with last year.

2014 Dezhou

High yield and good quality.

In 2014, the average yield of seed cotton in 2014 was 273 kg, the highest yield in the past ten years. At the same time, the quality of cotton was good, the white cotton grade two was 5.8%, the white cotton grade three was 86.8%, and it was also the best quality in recent years.

Cotton production is high and quality is good, but the price has dropped sharply. According to statistics, the average selling price of seed cotton is 6.35 yuan / kg, mu income 1733 yuan, and the cost of planting cotton and Mu is 1308 yuan (50 yuan per day), and the net income of cotton planting Mu is 425 yuan.

According to statistics, the net income of the local grain crops is 1068 yuan, and the grain yield is 643 yuan per mu more than the cotton seed per mu.

In addition, there is a subsidy of 125 yuan for agricultural grain, and only 15 yuan is subsidized for cotton planting. Grain farmers earn more than 753 yuan per mu of cotton farmers.

The cotton planting area will drop sharply in 2015.

The cotton association of Dezhou investigated 270 cotton growers, planted 1211 mu in 2014, and planned to grow 702 mu in 2015, a decrease of 42% over the previous year.

64% of cotton growers said they had reduced cotton area in 2015 or had replanted wheat.

The main reasons for the sudden drop are: first, the low benefit of cotton planting.

The price of cotton is too low, and the benefit of planting cotton and Mu is less than 753 yuan.

In recent years, the state grain policy has been directly supplemented and supplemented. The minimum purchase price of wheat is 118 yuan per 50 kilograms.

Seed cotton prices did not rise or fall, from an average of 8.4 yuan per kilogram in 2013 to 6.35 yuan per kilogram.

In 2014, the grain harvest in Dezhou was stable, and the stable grain prices stimulated farmers to abandon cotton and grow grain.

Two, we need more cotton seed and less grain.

Grain is basically mechanized from sowing to harvesting, with little labor in the field, and time to earn money when going out to work; and the low degree of mechanization of cotton production, from sowing, management, spraying medicine (old people do not move, young people do not want to do), and cotton repair to picking, are all manual operations.

The three is local soil, grain, seed and cotton.

Most of the saline alkali soil in Dezhou has been improved, and the water conditions have been improved.

Four is

It has not been issued so far.

In 2015, there were less than two months for new cotton planting, but the cotton subsidy was not allocated in 2014.

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PTA prices continued to wander in 2014. According to the price monitoring of business associations, PTA fell more than 37% in 2014, a record low of nearly five years. Although there was a strong rebound in the down channel, it failed to change the downtrend under the background of overcapacity.

And in the second half of this year, under the heavy drag of international crude oil prices, the PTA price trend was even worse, and entered the era of 4000 yuan / ton.

Specifically, it can be divided into three stages.

The first stage: 1~4 month commodity market weakness, PTA inventory increase, downstream production and marketing weakness and other negative factors, in addition to the late March of April, PTA device maintenance brought about by the wavelet rebound, the overall price drop is the main.

In the first quarter, the weakness of commodity market was obvious, most varieties fell unilaterally, the products of polyester industry chain were weak, and the PTA market was not spared.

PTA stocks are increasing and market mentality is not good.

Since the middle of November last year, the domestic PTA manufacturers have increased their overall load to a high level of 85% in order to occupy more contract shares. In addition, in the early spring festival of the year of February, the inventory of PTA manufacturers increased.

At the same time, the demand for polyester in the lower reaches is insufficient. After the Spring Festival, the operation of polyester enterprises has not improved at all. The inventory is high, the products are unsalable, and the profit level is not good.

The second stage: in May, focusing on limited production and raising prices, succeeded in boosting prices.

Due to the compression of profit space, the main production enterprises of PTA, Yisheng Petrochemical Company, Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company and Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. jointly limited production and insurance prices in early 5, which made the spot goods tight. The domestic operating rate has been maintained at a relatively low level near 60%. The load of the downstream polyester enterprises has been maintained at the level of 73%, and the PTA inventory level is low and the contract supply is insufficient.

At the same time, the overall operating rate of PX in Asia is at a low level of 65%, and spot supply is tight.

At the same time, the long-term settlement pricing model based on the market average price was converted to cost pricing. The change of pricing mode made PX price rise steadily, and successfully boosted PTA's three month's rising trend. According to the price monitoring of the business community, it was almost three months from 12 to August 12th in May, and PTA rose nearly 27%%.

The third stage: the PTA Industry Alliance collapsed, crude oil plummeted, and PTA was dragged down.

"Alliance" broke down, the PTA contract 1409 entered the delivery period, but from the delivery warehouse receipt, most of the delivery was made by a petrochemical manufacturer brand, and the petrochemical manufacturer is also a key member of the limited production alliance. In addition, an important condition of the limited production price protection is to reduce the spot flow into the delivery warehouse, and adjust the spot market price through the futures market.

At the same time, the factory's operating rate in August has been kept near 80%, which is obviously higher than the agreed load in the price alliance agreement.

During the National Day holiday in 2014, international crude oil prices declined all the time, due to the OPEC agency's demand for the global oil market was expected to be lowered, OPEC's daily output increased sharply, the US dollar continued to be strong and Saudi Arabia lowered its market share.

At present, Saudi Arabia led OPEC countries are very clear in their thinking. With the advantage of low cost, they will not cut down production.

Iraq recently said it plans to increase crude oil daily output by 500 thousand to 1 million barrels to 4 million barrels in 2015.

It can be seen that the crude oil output of OPEC countries will remain high, and the possibility of increasing production later.

The price of crude oil has continued to decline under the current imbalance between supply and demand and see no improvement.