PTA Fell More Than 37% In 2014.

PTA prices continued to wander in 2014. According to the price monitoring of business associations, PTA fell more than 37% in 2014, a record low of nearly five years. Although there was a strong rebound in the down channel, it failed to change the downtrend under the background of overcapacity.

And in the second half of this year, under the heavy drag of international crude oil prices, the PTA price trend was even worse, and entered the era of 4000 yuan / ton.

Specifically, it can be divided into three stages.

The first stage: 1~4 month commodity market weakness, PTA inventory increase, downstream production and marketing weakness and other negative factors, in addition to the end of March, mid April

The overall price declines are mainly caused by the rebound of devices caused by device maintenance.

In the first quarter, the weakness of commodity market was obvious, most varieties fell unilaterally, the products of polyester industry chain were weak, and the PTA market was not spared.

PTA stocks are increasing and market mentality is not good.

Since the middle of November last year, domestic PTA producers have taken up a larger share of the contract.

A sharp rise to the high level near 85%, coupled with the Early Spring Festival holiday in February, PTA manufacturers' inventories are increasing.

At the same time, downstream polyester demand is insufficient, after the Spring Festival.

The operation situation has not been improved at all, high inventory, unsalable products and poor profit level, and the start-up rate of the device is also difficult to upgrade.

The second stage: in May, focusing on limited production and raising prices, succeeded in boosting prices.

Due to the compression of profit space, the main production enterprises of PTA, Yisheng Petrochemical Company, Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company and Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. jointly limited production and insurance prices in early 5, which made the spot goods tight. The domestic operating rate has been maintained at a relatively low level near 60%. The load of the downstream polyester enterprises has been maintained at the level of 73%, and the PTA inventory level is low and the contract supply is insufficient.

At the same time, the overall operating rate of PX in Asia is at a low level of 65%, and spot supply is tight.

At the same time, the long-term settlement pricing model based on the market average price was converted to cost pricing. The change of pricing mode made PX price rise steadily, and successfully boosted PTA's three month's rising trend. According to the price monitoring of the business community, it was almost three months from 12 to August 12th in May, and PTA rose nearly 27%%.

The third stage: the PTA Industry Alliance collapsed, crude oil plummeted, and PTA was dragged down.

"Alliance" broke down, the PTA contract 1409 entered the delivery period, but from the delivery warehouse receipt, most of the delivery was made by a petrochemical manufacturer brand, and the petrochemical manufacturer is also a key member of the limited production alliance. In addition, an important condition of the limited production price protection is to reduce the spot flow into the delivery warehouse, and adjust the spot market price through the futures market.

At the same time, the factory's operating rate in August has been kept near 80%, which is obviously higher than the agreed load in the price alliance agreement.

During the National Day holiday in 2014, international crude oil prices declined all the time, due to the OPEC agency's demand for the global oil market was expected to be lowered, OPEC's daily output increased sharply, the US dollar continued to be strong and Saudi Arabia lowered its market share.

At present, Saudi Arabia led OPEC countries are very clear in their thinking. With the advantage of low cost, they will not cut down production.

Iraq recently said it plans to increase crude oil daily output by 500 thousand to 1 million barrels to 4 million barrels in 2015.

It can be seen that the crude oil output of OPEC countries will remain high, and the possibility of increasing production later.

The price of crude oil has continued to decline under the current imbalance between supply and demand and see no improvement.