Analysis Of Monetary Policy, RMB Exchange Rate And Interest Rate Liberalization

　　 monetary policy Not exceeding the category of "stability"

Zhou Xiaochuan said that although the central bank used a variety of monetary instruments to regulate the market since last year, the growth of the broad money supply (M2) that had been combined was still moderate, not exceeding the moderate or neutral level.

He describes that there are only five broad categories of Monetary Policy Description: loose, moderately loose, moderate, moderately tight and tight. The scope of these five categories is relatively large. In every category, flexibility can be adjusted from left to right, but from one formulation to another, the steps are relatively large.

"China's economy entering the new normal is a normal state, not a special and problematic state. Monetary policy does not necessarily need a new formulation." Zhou Xiaochuan said that although the people's Bank of China used many monetary policy tools which were not very familiar to us in the near future, the quantity used by each tool is not necessarily large relative to the weight of the national economy.

In response to concerns about deflation in the market, Yi Gang said that while paying close attention to the trend of prices, we will adjust liquidity with sound monetary policy. Positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy are just the right combination of coping with the current economic situation and the proper meaning of policy.

　　 RMB exchange rate The increase in amplitude is a normal phenomenon.

With regard to the recent increase in the RMB exchange rate, Zhou Xiaochuan said that this is a normal phenomenon in the context of China's increasing economic openness. The fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate depends not only on the fundamentals of the domestic economy, but also on the supply and demand of RMB in the international financial market, and whether there are any major events in the international situation.

"Since last year, the international situation is very calm, and there are many factors leading to exchange rate fluctuations. If we look at the volatility at a stage, the renminbi is relatively stable compared with many currencies in the world, and the fluctuation is relatively small. Zhou Xiaochuan said another important factor in the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is the strength of the US dollar. Traders, investors and participants in the financial market can basically cope with such a fluctuation.

In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will conduct a five year review of the special drawing rights (SDR) this year. In view of whether the renminbi can join SDR this year, Yi Gang said that this is the process of success and failure. When China joins, adds or does not join, China's financial reform and opening up process will continue to move forward.

Yi Gang said that when IMF reviews SDR, there are two criteria: one is to see the volume of goods trade and service trade behind the currency, and the two is to make money freely available. At present, China's trade in goods and services is one of the top in the world, and the renminbi is developing towards a freely available currency. RMB's accession to the SDR will help expand the representativeness of SDR and promote the reform of the international monetary system. It will also play a catalytic role in the reform and opening up of China's financial sector.

　　 Hot money exists but not serious.

In response to the question of hot money, Zhou Xiaochuan said that in the balance of payments of our country, most of the funds have normal trade and investment background, but some of them may be related to hot money. This quantity is not easy to observe accurately, but it must exist. Compared with normal investment and trade, this quantity is not very large.

Yi Gang said that the flow of people's capital, logistics, capital flows and investment flows will lead to cross-border capital flows. Last year, the US dollar deposits of enterprises and individuals in our domestic financial institutions increased by US $about 100000000000, an increase of US $about 40000000000 in January this year. This shows that enterprises, individuals and financial institutions are optimizing their balance sheets in the current economic environment and adjusting the monetary structure of assets and liabilities according to expectations. This is a good phenomenon of "sink the people in the people". "Of course, we are also wary of some abnormal cross-border capital flows."

　　 Deposit interest rate ceiling this year, the probability of release is "very high".

Zhou Xiaochuan said that China's interest rate marketization has been gradually promoted for many years, and has made many progress. Last year, the floating rate of RMB deposit interest rate expanded by 20%. Interest rate adjustment earlier this year, the floating range further expanded by 10%.

"Therefore, it is very reasonable to estimate that we are very close to the termination of interest rate marketization, which is the final lifting of the deposit interest rate cap." Zhou Xiao Sichuan "If there is a chance this year, the deposit interest rate ceiling will be released. This probability should be very high," he said.

Yi Gang added that after the central bank extended the upper limit of the deposit interest rate interval from 1.2 times the benchmark interest rate to 1.3 times, commercial banks could differentiate pricing, and there appeared different camps in the floating range. The conditions of interest rate liberalization are gradually maturing.

With regard to the regulation of Internet finance, Pan Gongsheng revealed that the central bank is taking the lead in formulating opinions on promoting the healthy development of Internet finance, and is currently implementing relevant approval procedures, which is expected to come out soon.

He said that the basic attitude of the central bank to Internet finance is to encourage innovation and development and classify appropriate regulation. Because of the different legal relationship and risk nature, the regulatory rules and regulatory strength of Internet Financial formats vary.

　　 The deposit insurance system is expected to be introduced in the first half of this year.

The so-called deposit insurance means that the deposit bank pays the premium to form a deposit insurance fund. When the individual banks have problems in operation, they use the deposit insurance fund to make timely payment to the depositors in accordance with the regulations.

Zhou Xiaochuan said that as an important step in financial reform, the establishment of a deposit insurance system has been preparing for a period of time. At the end of last year, the deposit insurance Ordinance had openly solicited public opinions, and the results were generally positive. This shows that the introduction of deposit insurance system, all aspects of the conditions have been basically mature.

Since the international financial crisis in 2008, the voice of China's deposit insurance system has been particularly strong. In those days, the "deposit insurance system" was written into the government's work report, which was mentioned almost every year. This year's government work report mentioned the introduction of a deposit insurance system.

According to the previous draft, the deposit insurance system requires compulsory insurance, and all deposit financial institutions must join the deposit insurance system. In addition, the maximum repayment limit is set at RMB 500 thousand yuan. According to the central bank statistics, this can cover 99.63% of all depositors' deposits.