Gem: Small Ticket Crazy Test Rational Thinking

Incident

Mass securities and Caixin network: after the Spring Festival, the main board is going up and down, but the growth enterprise board and the small and medium sized board perform well. How do we assess the risk return ratio for the small ticket market?

Li Honghao, deputy general manager of national securities and wealth center, reached the lowest point of 585 at the end of:2012. Now it has jumped to 2000. The fundamental reason is that China is in the stage of economic structural pformation.

In the short term, perhaps the gem index will hit a new high, but after the current round of main promotion, the overall valuation of GEM has reached more than 80 times, and the risk is increasing.

At the same time, under the background of the upcoming registration system,

Individual stocks will face differentiation in the future. On the one hand, companies that have real growth and performance support will continue to take the bull, while some growing company with short-term gains, high valuations and no performance will have greater risks.

Wen Lijun (Senior strategist of Nanjing securities): the hot market of the growth stocks after the Spring Festival has pushed the gem valuation to a record high level, and its risks are indeed accumulating continuously. The trend will have obvious differentiation. The "Internet +" story can not continue to be falsified in the long run, but we need to be vigilant against the short-term fluctuations. In particular, the stocks that are bigger and valuations can not be reasonably explained should be vigilant against the high risk, but they can not be falsified and conform to the future upgrading direction of the industry. For example, industrial 4, new energy vehicles, Internet of things, gene sequencing and other varieties, it is expected that there will still be repeated shocks and strong shocks. After all, the bull market is willing to give the new economy and new stories a valuation premium.

Subject matter

Space is limited in the short term.

Volkswagen securities and financial information network: in this small stock market, Internet themes and so on are more dazzling, but some senior investors have also suggested that compared with overseas listed industry leaders, the stock price is far more rational than the two or three listed companies in the domestic market. What is your prediction about the future space of the theme stocks?

In reason, the overvaluation of domestic Internet stocks is obvious. Indeed, we can pay more attention to the better quality overseas listed companies at a more reasonable price. However, A shares remain a relatively closed market. In the near future, we believe that this high premium situation for high-quality assets is still difficult to fundamentally change.

But with the coming of the registration system, a large number of enterprises, especially high quality enterprises, will continue to be listed, and the valuation premium of the subject stocks will gradually converge.

Li Honghao: in the short term, although the gem index may still go up to 2200 points, but the space is limited, it is the end of the battle. With the rational regression of value, the small stock will have a downward adjustment. Investors should rationally invest in the current time, grasp the rhythm of the market, and continue to pay attention to the theme stocks with potential for further development while adjusting positions.

Value

Blue chips will continue to rise for a long time.

Volkswagen securities and financial information network: in the current economic pformation period, although the blue chips are highly criticized, most overseas institutional investors buy shares through Shanghai stock market. What are your suggestions for value investing?

Li Honghao: the investment concept and investment standards of overseas institutional investors are more mature and pay more attention to long-term investment. Therefore, it favors the blue chips of stable growth and more dividends in the industry. Its valuation depression is still obvious. In addition, as the reform continues to push forward, the investment of insurance, social security, pension and QFII will become inevitable, and the investment style of this kind of funds is often the first principle, so the impetus to support the rise of blue chip will exist for a long time.

Wen Lijun: in general, the performance of coal and nonferrous metals can not be seen lightly. However, when market sentiment tends to be pessimistic, we can further arrange the layout. The focus of value investing is to buy low, and we need to find a good buy point when prices are seriously undervalued.

Style

Shanghai stock market is more likely to pick up valuations.

Volkswagen securities and financial information network: at present, according to the authoritative data released by the exchange, Shanghai stock market A shares average price earnings ratio is about 16 times, the average price earnings ratio of the gem is about 83 times. If the time is pushed back for a year, the gap will be narrowed. Where is the direction of the fluctuation?

Wen Lijun: in terms of direction, the probability is that the Shanghai stock market will pick up more. The gem will not have much room for valuation to fall behind, but some of the future performance may dilute its valuation, and the continuous addition of new assets may further dilute its valuation level.

Li Honghao: there is a certain uncertainty in whether the valuation gap will shrink after the year is pushed back.

If the registration system is introduced in the second half of this year, due to the increase in supply, the scarcity of growth stocks will reduce the price earnings ratio of the growth enterprise market, but if permitted small profits or even losses of emerging enterprises listed on the gem, the average price earnings ratio of the gem will be directly promoted.

The change of size and style is highly correlated with market expectations and inflow of market funds. Stock capital game shows better performance of small cap stocks, whereas incremental funds have larger probability of going to market capitalization stocks.

As a whole, the style will continue to switch between the big and small ones in the process of going up the stock market.