Policy Urges Bank Shares Pulse Market

On the policy front, the previous two symmetrical and asymmetric interest rate cuts have already made clear directions in this direction.

The two interest rate cuts in December 2013 and March 2014 have raised the ceiling on deposit interest rates. This year's "two sessions" Zhou Xiaochuan mentioned that the "ceiling on deposit interest rates" should be released at a timely rate.

This will not only affect some banks' credit crunch, but also the competition for bank hoarding.

In addition, with the opening of interest rate cycles and the continuous downward trend of loan interest rates, the spread of commercial banks will further narrow and affect the income of their traditional businesses.

Development and innovation will surely become the core of the development of commercial banks in the future and become the main competitiveness of them.

In fact, the idea of management promoting banking business has partially emerged. In addition to the securitization of mortgage assets pushed by the "9.30" central bank and the Banking Regulatory Commission last year, the recent management has clearly stated that the issuing of securities brokers to banks should be conducted in the study.

As for the securitization of mortgage assets, the market is expected to generate a large amount of incremental funds, and release the larger lending space for banks, so as to reduce the difficulty of banking pformation.

In the case of China Merchants Bank, which is the first successful tender offering after the current filing system, Credit Suisse points out that if China Merchants Bank releases the expected 28 billion RMBS quota this year, which is equivalent to 10% of the 2014 related funds of the first half of China Merchants Bank, and then re invest in its high-end credit card business, it will earn 5 billion 500 million yuan in the pre tax profit for its export.

Unlike the expectations of RMBS, the market's response to the liberalization of securities licence to banks is more cautious.

Mao Junhua, a brokerage analyst at CICC, believes that this is a relatively limited increase in bank performance.

Mao Junhua pointed out that if the licence is completely liberalized, commercial banks will be able to earn 25% to 30% of their income share.

According to the net profit margin of 40%, it is equivalent to 1% to 2% of the net profit of the banking industry in 2014.

Overall, the bank's innovation is still long and needs to be more active.

At present, in the structural pformation stage, under the big financial strategy of "going to bank property and promoting stock market direct financing", the mode of "additional leverage" under indirect financing will gradually weaken.

Guided by the direct financing enhancement, China's financial market will undergo a great change.

With the advent of the registration system, the incremental funds for the purpose of digesting large quantities of new shares in the multi-storey market will continue to enter the market. In this year, the incremental funds generated by the scale replacement of the local platform debt released by the two sessions this year will be only a beginning.

As big

The lower financing function will weaken, and market analysts believe that

In the future trend of financial integration, the development mode of banks will tend to be diversified through integration with other industries, pformation of mergers and acquisitions, and extension of related industrial chains.

At present, as part of the interest rate sensitive industry, some of the banks have a high dividend yield and are very popular with strategic investors and foreign investors, such as QFII.

With the rapid growth of small and medium-sized banks, incremental funds, especially exogenous capital, will continue to pour into the multi-storey market. The advantages of bank stocks and long-term stable earnings will be highlighted.

At the policy level, because of the high probability of issuing preferred shares by the high dividend yield banks, and apart from the stock price spreads, the space for investors to gain excess positive returns is relatively enlarged.

Therefore, the future can be high.

The high dividend bank shares are expected to gain further favour, especially for a small and medium-sized commercial bank, which is Minsheng Bank and Nanjing bank.

Take the Bank of Nanjing as an example, the bank has invested in music and video industry in recent years, enjoying the stage feast of the media industry with financial investment.

With the rise and development of "Internet +", interconnection with related industries will become one of the mainstream of the market.

However, market analysts also say that because this is a relatively long process, the impact of the current stage on banks is relatively neutral.

Entering the sensitive period of the 2014 annual report, the bank's performance is expected to be predominant (the annual growth of Ping An Bank's annual growth rate is 30.01%, and the Bank of Ningbo is expected to be 20%). With the attention of the funds, the stage speculation can also be expected, but it is difficult to have the hurricane at the end of last year.

On the capital side, although the net outflow is still the main factor at present, there is a continuous influx of funds in the banking sector, and the traditional market structure of funds has remained unchanged (91 billion 92 million yuan after the Spring Festival).

Considering that the big market was dominated by leverage plus funds after the end of last year, and the funds had already formed a large scale precipitation, with the strengthening of the financing of financing, the small and medium-sized commercial banks with more obvious QFII layout would still be relatively positive (Societe Generale Bank was bought 2 billion 71 million, and its active pulse was active), and the rebound of the mainstream state-owned banks was still on the way.