Correcting Three Misunderstandings Of The Present Economy

Contrary to past speculation that China's economy is collapsing, this round of "bad China" has resonated with factors such as weak external demand in the past two years, structural adjustment of resource consumption and shrinking property market, which has aggravated some people's pformation anxiety disorder.

Therefore, stepping out of the logical mistaken ideas of these arguments and eliminating some people's psychological misunderstanding is very important for the country's long-term stability and stability.

Correcting three misunderstandings of the present economy

China's economy grew by 7.4% in real terms in 2014, down 0.3% from the previous year, the slowest growth in 24 years.

The public opinion about the future of China's economy comes from the most concerned.

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In fact, not to mention that China's growth rate of 7.4% is higher than that of Japan (0%), the euro area (0.9%) and the United States (2.4%). From the perspective of the total economic growth, the annual growth rate of the 7.4% growth rate in 2014 is roughly the same as that of the 7.8% growth rate in 2013. The economic growth in 2014 is equivalent to the total economic volume in 1996.

It can be seen that the change of GDP growth rate is easy to misread, and similar logic is reflected in other economic interpretation details.

The first misreading is to misinterpret the growth and downtrend of some data as a general downturn in economic development.

Some voices often list the downward trend of overall investment growth, declining profits in traditional industries such as real estate, and the downturn in consumption of high-end restaurants and luxury goods, but intentionally or unintentionally overlook the rapid growth of private investment and investment in the three industry, the strong growth of the whole year's equipment and high-tech manufacturing industry, and the good indications of digital information products consumption and tourism activities.

In 2014, China's third industry added value obviously exceeded second industries, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth was greatly improved, and China's economic structure was constantly optimized.

From this we can see that the Chinese economy can not be blindly seen, nor can it be covered by one leaf.

The connotation of China's new normal economy lies in active adjustment, actively promoting structural pformation and upgrading, and ultimately achieving quality and efficiency under the new normal.

At present, the trend of economic structure optimization is obvious.

The second mistake is to misinterpret the controllable risk release as a systemic risk.

In recent years, the chain of individual real estate companies has broken up, the difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises in heavy chemical industry, the bankruptcy of microfinance companies, the frequent breach of financial products such as joint guarantee and mutual insurance, and the phenomenon of non-performing loan rates of banks have increased.

The release of these risks is totally controllable, without triggering the Domino dominoes effect, instead, it presents a good economic reconstruction effect.

At present, emerging industries such as biomedicine, e-commerce, aerospace and other industries have gradually become the protagonists in the market arena.

In 2014, the number of newly registered enterprises increased by 45.88% over the same period last year, and the vitality of the market was further stimulated.

Market reaction is the best economic barometer.

The old growth mode will be abandoned. Upgrading from "made in China" to "created in China" is doomed to be the only way for the new normal.

This road is tortuous but bright.

The third misunderstanding is to misunderstand the international deflation imbalance as the limit of foreign trade.

The weakness of China's trade growth is partly due to the growth of labor costs in China, but the main reason is that the global demand, especially the growth of import demand in Europe and the United States, as well as the competitive devaluation of various countries, and the globalization of trade protectionism are countering.

Even under such unfavorable conditions, China's foreign trade maintained a healthy growth rate in 2014, and the status of the world's first major trade in goods has been consolidated. Especially, the contribution rate of exports to economic growth has reached a new high since 2008.

In addition, China's foreign investment in 2014 was US $140 billion, which exceeded the scale of foreign investment in the same period of US $20 billion. China has become a net exporter of capital.

China's economy is truly becoming the world's engine and the biggest practitioner and supporter of free trade in the world.

The pformation under the new normal is essentially the switch of growth momentum, that is, no longer rely on extensive resource consumption, but a new impetus to the new round of reform, innovation, urbanization, opening up and improving people's livelihood.

We need new impetus to reform.

China is releasing dividends through reform to promote long-term and stable economic growth.

In 2012, the central economic work conference stressed the overall deepening of the reform of the economic system, and clearly put forward the overall plan, roadmap and timetable for reform.

In 2013, financial reform based on market-oriented interest rate reform and capital market reform became the focus of economic reform, and the policy of accelerating fiscal and tax reform was put forward.

In 2014, Shanghai and Hong Kong implemented the pilot scheme of private banks. Interest rate liberalization and exchange rate marketization reform were steadily advancing.

The dynamics of China's financial reform are obvious to all. These financial reforms have created conditions for reducing the cost of social financing and promoting the growth of the real economy and releasing huge growth potential.

New impetus to innovation.

Whether the strategic pformation of the economic structure or the pformation of the mode of economic development and the upgrading of the Chinese economy to the medium and high end level, we must strengthen the innovation driven development strategy.

At present, China's new generation of mobile Internet industry, personalized intelligent manufacturing industry, Bio Medical and pharmaceutical industry, high-end service industry, cultural and creative industries and other innovative industries are rapidly growing into a new growth pole leading the Chinese economy.

Basically, these innovative industries are at the same level as the international advanced level, providing the possibility of overtaking the curve of China's development.

General secretary Xi Jinping, who presided over the ninth collective learning of the Central Political Bureau, stressed that "implementing the strategy of innovation driven development determines the future and destiny of the Chinese nation."

The innovation industry is generating unlimited creativity and power in China.

New impetus to the new round of urbanization.

With the average urbanization rate of about 80% of the European and American countries, China's new urbanization will also digest 3 to 400 million people in the next 10 to 15 years.

It is estimated that the increase in China's new urbanization rate will bring 7 to 8 trillion yuan of investment and consumption demand.

By 2020, China's urbanization rate will reach about 60%, and the capital demand will reach 40 trillion yuan, which will increase the growth of infrastructure, industry, employment and domestic demand.

Coupled with the optimization of the existing urban infrastructure, the rise of the ecological environmental protection industry and the deep development of the central and western industries, China's economic volume is expected to double again in the next 5 to 8 years as long as China maintains the current political stability and policy continuity.

It can be seen that the potential of China's economic development is far from being exhausted.

We need new impetus to open up.

Over the past 30 years, China's opening to the outside world has gradually formed an omni-directional, multi-level and wide-ranging opening up pattern.

The eighteen major stresses of the party are to raise the level of open economy in an all-round way.

China actively adapts itself to the new situation of economic globalization, expedite the implementation of the strategy of free trade zone, and has signed free trade agreements with more than 20 countries and regions. After the successful pilot of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the second batch of Tianjin free trade zones, including Guangdong, Fujian, has already started.

The "one belt and one way" strategy will also drive the economic growth and full liberalization of China and its countries along the line, and will boost Eurasian and global economic growth.

New impetus is needed to improve people's livelihood.

There are a lot of opportunities for economic growth in various fields, such as health care, pension, housing, automobile, education, insurance and so on.

Moreover, in the new "four modernizations" of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, there are still many aspects that need to improve people's livelihood. This will be a huge engine to stimulate economic growth.

The global good news in 2015 is obvious: the US economic growth will make the global external demand warmer, which will greatly benefit China's expansion of exports. The sharp fall in crude oil prices will help Chinese enterprises to save costs and increase consumer spending.

From this perspective, it is better to say that China's economy is in the eve of taking off again after the pformation pains, rather than the growth limit of the Chinese economy. It is practicing for a more solid and effective way to achieve long-term economic stability and high quality growth. The future Chinese economy will take off again as the legendary "Phoenix Nirvana" has described.

The new normal makes China face a rare opportunity for pformation.

Firmly grasp this important period of pformation, the key is to maintain a firm and comprehensive understanding of the national conditions, the world and the people in the complicated atmosphere of public opinion.

This requires us to pcend "digital dogmatism", to see and examine the healthy state of China's development with a relatively comprehensive and balanced economic data. It also requires us to get rid of "academic bookishism" and avoid disseminate some one-sided views without thinking.

To analyze the Chinese economy, we should analyze the data and return to common sense.

China's economic growth is indeed slowing down, but look at the Spring Festival holiday of 2015, the number of domestic and outbound tourists has reached a new high, and street shopping malls and night markets are everywhere.

In January 2015, China's import and export volume was declining, but ports such as Tianjin, Xiamen and Shanghai were prosperous.

These are economic prosperity and social prosperity that can be seen by the naked eye.

Looking around us, the vast majority of Chinese are looking forward to a better life in the future.

We hope to buy and buy cars. We need to harness air and water pollution, craving comfort and home communities, and yearning for a colorful life. These are all the driving force for China's economic growth.

Of course, China faces many problems and challenges.

But what period of China's problems are not many? What period of China's economic challenge is less than that? China's economic problems are growing pains, and the overall economic upturn "how to maintain" the problem.

The economic problem in Europe and the United States is the confusion of aging and the problem of "how to recover" in the economic downturn.

In the face of China's voice, the Chinese must have their own economic confidence.

In fact, as early as in the early twenty-first Century, many Westerners said that China's banking industry had been technically bankrupt, and that the hard landing of China's economy was very rampant.

However, in the process of steady reform, China not only did not decline in its economy, but maintained a rapid growth and realized the economic take-off.

China, which is moving steadily ahead, needs no attention to all the arguments about China.

As long as we stabilize our pace and cultivate our inner strength, growth is inevitable.

As pointed out by general secretary Xi Jinping, China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities. We should enhance our confidence and start from the current stage characteristics of our economic development to adapt to the new normal and maintain the usual mindset in strategy.

Go forward with great strides and let others talk.