Ye Tan: Modern Silk Road Highlights Business Attributes

In the past history of China's interaction with the outside world, the economic and trade activities of the private sector through the land route or the maritime silk road have shown great vitality. Just as Zheng He led the pagan fleet to the seven seas, the people in the eastern coastal areas of China went out of the way of life in pursuit of life and silk and porcelain.

Like the ancient Silk Road, modern edition. The Silk Road To achieve great success, we must also highlight its commercial attributes. It is a logical sequence to have a market first and then a strategy.

Among the major challenges facing the modern silk road, financing is one of the most important. According to the top-level design shown by the relevant ministries and commissions in answering reporters' questions on the "one belt and one road" construction problem, the funds come from the Asian international monetary system, deepen financial cooperation among various countries, give full play to the role of the Silk Road Fund and the sovereign funds of various countries, and guide commercial equity investment funds and social funds to participate in the construction of key projects of "one belt and one road".

Absorbing international funds includes cooperation with foreign governments. At present, as the investment bank of Asian infrastructure investment bank, the idea of Asian investment bank has been widely supported. As of March 29th, as Denmark and Australia announced their application to join the founding member countries, the Asian investment bank's intention to join the founding member countries has increased to 42, which is a great achievement. Around the Asian investment bank's demands are more pragmatic, China attracts countries to enter Asia Investment Bank's way more internationalized. At the same time, it also shows that the Asia Pacific Century is not groundless. All countries realize that abandoning the Asia pacific means abandoning the future.

Asia Investment Bank is positioned as a commercial multilateral bank, rather than a purely development aid agency. This makes the Asia investment bank more business operation space. At present, the sub investment bank is statutory. Capital scale For $100 billion, referring to the capital and loan ratio of the world bank and the European investment bank, the investment fund of Asia Investment Bank for infrastructure loans is about 100%~175% of the statutory capital, about 100 billion to 175 billion US dollars (about US $30 billion per year).

It is predicted that in the ten years from 2010 to 2020, the investment in infrastructure construction in the Asia Pacific region is expected to take about $8 trillion. Such a scale would be inadequate if it were only invested by a sub investment bank. In the future, if infrastructure financing is to raise money through public private partnerships (PPP), the total amount of Asian infrastructure loans will exceed the above value, and the size of the legal capital of Asian investment bank may also rise again in the future.

The Chinese government will give full support to this. China News Agency, March, 28, the chairman of CDB Hu Huaibang said at the Boao forum in Hainan on the same day that CDB has set up a project database for the "one belt and one road", involving about 900 projects in 64 countries, with an investment of more than $800 billion. This is an ambitious plan, which is equivalent to about 1/3 of last year's general revenue of 800 billion US dollars. According to statistics, as of the end of 2014, CDB's international business loans amounted to $319 billion 800 million, of which the balance of loans in the table was $276 billion 200 million, according to the statistical caliber of the people's Bank of China. foreign exchange The loan balance accounts for 29% of the foreign exchange loans of the national financial institutions. Even so, CDB's loan balance is still hard to sustain the demand for loans of $800 billion.

In November last year, the Chinese government formally announced the establishment of a "Silk Road Fund" with a contribution of US $40 billion. This is the only special fund supporting the "one belt and one way" construction. The fund needs the support of private funds. According to the "Securities Times" reported on March 29th, the size of the proposed infrastructure and the scale of infrastructure built by the local governments has reached 1 trillion and 40 billion yuan, and the scale of transnational investment is about 52 billion 400 million dollars.

Government strength alone is not enough to support huge capital demand, and it is also difficult to improve efficiency. China needs more international support and commercial operation, but also requires clearer rules of game and a clearer profit model to attract private funds.

Investment will have risks. Mr. Ge Jianxiong mentioned in the misreading of the history of the "one area along the way" that the Silk Road in the history could only transport luxury goods such as silk to cover high risks. At present, risks remain, such as geopolitics, political stability, legal barriers, industrial weeks and so on.

With strategic planning, the rules of the game can be established so that the market can gain the initiative. This will make it easier for the modern silk road to take account of passion and rationality, and also to make this grand idea smoothly landing from the air to the ground.