China Should Seize The Best Opportunity For BIT Negotiations

The most likely time for China US BIT negotiations to pass is in the next two years.

For China, the next president will be more difficult to deal with.

American experts are divided on the attitude of Asia Investment Bank. Some people think that the establishment of Asia Investment Bank is a powerful step towards reform, and some people doubt whether Asian investment bank can achieve the high standard of the current international organization management structure.

As the IMF reform remains deadlocked in the US parliament, the United States may support the Yuan's accession to SDR this year as a concession.

From the different think tanks to the same think tank, the US experts are not sure about the possibility of the negotiation of the Sino US investment agreement (BIT).

From both sides' investment trends, China's investment in the US has seen an explosive growth, but the US investment in China has been stagnant.

This led the us to believe that BIT can create more benefits for the Chinese economy than the benefits the United States can get.

On the political level, according to the past experience of the Korea us free trade agreement, BIT will face great challenges when it comes to the US Senate.

The BIT agreement needs to win at least 2/3 of the Senate.

It is estimated that even the opening of some important sectors in China will require 3-5 years of buffer time, and the Senate is not likely to agree.

However, some experts believe that the key to the agreement is still in the support of the Business Council represented by the American Chamber of Commerce.

The most powerful support for BIT in the United States comes from the American Chamber of Commerce.

China and the United States still have great differences on the negative list, and the Republican Party is very careful to listen to the views of the business community. If the business community thinks that the important part of China's negative list can be solved, the Republicans will ensure that the agreement is reached.

In assessing China's position on the "negative list" negotiations, the Obama administration will also listen carefully to the recommendations of these groups.

However, China's recent cyber security laws may lead China to lose its support from the US business community, and BIT negotiations will become more difficult.

If the negative list is too long, the Obama administration will think that the possibility of completing negotiations within the term of office is too low, thereby losing the will to negotiate.

American experts interviewed agreed that the most likely time for BIT to pass is in the next two years.

China should seize this opportunity to regard BIT as an opportunity for policy reform.

For China, the next president will be more difficult to deal with.

Hilllary Clinton may become the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016, and her position on China has always been more acute than Obama's.

As for the Republican presidential candidate, if they are involved in the campaign,

It will also be very tough to win votes.

These tough presidential candidates on China will not negotiate with China before the second term, which means that the next serious negotiation will be six years later.

Even if the next president has a positive attitude towards the negotiations, it is not clear whether the Parliament can maintain its support for two years.

American experts believe that the main reason why the United States does not support AIIB is the internal struggle between the US government departments.

After all, the world bank has resisted the pressure of the two largest shareholders in the US and Japan, and has expressed a positive attitude towards AIIB.

AIIB is generally positive, especially in promoting world trade.

The existing international organizations are in urgent need of reform. The establishment of AIIB is a powerful step towards reform.

However, the United States is worried that AIIB will not meet the high standards of the current international organization management structure, especially the workers' treatment standards and environmental standards.

This is also the main reason why the United States does not support AIIB.

The US side is worried that AIIB may overemphasize fast and efficient lending and neglect the prudence in the process of borrowing.

In addition, some experts have reservations about the importance of AIIB for infrastructure projects, because feasible experience in China may not be applied to other countries.

The world bank has invested a lot of inefficient infrastructure projects.

On the issue of AIIB, "ready to talk to China and talk".

The way of multilateral cooperation is more outstanding than the pattern of bilateral investment cooperation. The United States welcomes China to join in the fight against poverty.

To win the support of the United States, some prerequisites must be satisfied: for example, to ensure that the recipient countries do not accumulate too much debt and to ensure a management structure which is not fully controlled by China.

The US experts point out that the renminbi has experienced an appreciable real appreciation, and this appreciation will help to make a correct valuation of the renminbi.

The people's Bank of China has stopped interfering with the foreign exchange market and stopped repressing the appreciation of the renminbi.

However, they also worry that the renminbi will depreciate faster than the US dollar in 2015.

Depreciation will lead to a negative political response in the US and eventually a trade problem.

Joining the SDR will be a positive signal for the internationalization of RMB, but the RMB has not yet reached the "free use" standard of SDR.

Therefore, IMF will not put Renminbi into SDR in the current cycle.

China has made great progress in this respect, and IMF may give some encouragement to China's reform.

As the IMF reform remains deadlocked in the US parliament, the United States may support the Yuan's accession to SDR this year as a concession.

Many American experts have recognized many positive factors of "one belt and one road".

From an economic point of view, rebuilding this ancient trade route can create employment, provide the resources needed for China's development, and release excess capacity overseas.

On the political level, the "one belt and one way" can balance Russia's influence in these areas.

Some experts even support the United States to learn from China and establish its own one belt strategy.

But they also worry that the lack of public bidding will lead to the lack of public bidding.

Monopoly.

The "one belt and one way" should not only bring employment opportunities to China, but also help create jobs in Central Asia.