PTA Supply Worries Big Impact

Because the PX factory explosion caused short-term PTA supply tight suspicion exists, but in the current other PTA factory operating rate is still low, the loss of PTA production capacity may soon be supplemented by other factories.

Moreover, under the premise that the current overall production and production capacity are surplus, short-term factors or difficult to change the long-term weakness situation, it is advisable for operators to wait for the timing of the paction.

In April 8th, the PTA dollar market in East China was strong, the futures TA1509 opened up high, crude oil rose, and the speculation continued to increase. The factory's one-day tour price was quoted at $690-700 / ton, and the cargo reference was discussed at about 630-640 US dollars / ton.

East China

Quotations continued to rise, the market sporadic spot quotation of 4700-4750 yuan / ton about short distance delivery, and part of the delivery in 4670-4680 yuan / ton about mentioning.

The explosion of factory explosion is still around, and the market is beginning to worry about 4 million 500 thousand tons of Xiang Lu.

Capacity parking problem, Xiang Lu 4 million 500 thousand ton PTA capacity or parking due to PX supply problem.

Short term stimulus PTA prices strengthened, today's main contract in September traded 3 million 269 thousand hands throughout the day, capital reduction of 90 thousand hands, trading volume hit the September contract since the new high.

Capital is still showing a trend of outflow. Today's May contract has also been substantially reduced, with a sharp reduction of 106 thousand hands in May.

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In April 7th, the national development and Reform Commission announced that the target price of cotton in Xinjiang this year was 19100 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton compared with last year.

According to the press, China began implementing cotton target price policy in Xinjiang last year, and implemented price subsidy policy in cotton fields in the mainland.

Judging from the effect, compared with the previous cotton minimum purchase price policy, the cotton target price policy has straightened out the cotton market price formation mechanism, making the domestic seed cotton purchase price, the lint sale price and the international cotton price linkage enhanced, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and related products obviously reduced, and the survival environment of the downstream cotton enterprises improved.

"After Xinjiang's cotton price policy is clear this year, the focus of the market will be focused on the actual cotton planting area, the expected yield, the purchase price of seed cotton and the sale price of lint cotton.

At the same time, whether the profit margins of downstream textile enterprises can be expanded and the number of imported cotton and cotton yarns is increasing is also the focus of market concern.

Zhang Wenmin said.

Reporters in late March in Hebei, Shandong and other cotton area survey found that, due to the current domestic cotton seed, lint, cotton yarn and other market prices are mainly formed by the market mechanism, the policy impact has been greatly weakened. This year cotton growers cotton, traders buy and sell cotton, textile enterprises to buy cotton and sell cotton yarn are more rational, the market "gambling policy" phenomenon has basically not exist.

The goal price policy guides the benign development of cotton industry gradually.

At present, the main cotton producing areas of Xinjiang, such as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, have entered the suitable sowing period, and cotton fields such as Hebei and Shandong have also entered the stage of preparation for planting.

"From the perspective of cotton growers' planting intention, the trend of decreasing cotton planting area in the mainland will continue. It is estimated that the cotton planting area of Heze in Shandong will be reduced by more than 15% this year."

Zawa Hirohito, general manager of the Industrial Development Co., Ltd., Cheung Kwok Keung, believes that cotton farmers in mainland China have made a big decline in cotton production in recent years. In addition, planting other crops with high yields and labor saving, domestic cotton planting will become more and more concentrated in Xinjiang.

The market influence of the remaining mainland cotton regions such as Hebei, Shandong and Hubei will be smaller and smaller, and the layout of the cotton industry is changing.

Xinjiang is an important cotton producing area in China, and its annual output accounts for about 60% of the cotton output in the country.

Under the guidance of the target price policy, the planting structure of Xinjiang cotton area is also changing, and the phenomenon that cotton planting area will only increase is likely to change this year.

According to reporters, Xinjiang plans to reduce cotton planting area by 4 million 665 thousand mu this year, reducing the scale to 15.72% of the total cotton planting area.

The Xinjiang production and Construction Corps will also reduce cotton planting area by 1 million mu.

People in the industry believe that the adjustment of cotton planting area in Xinjiang is aimed at implementing the spirit of cotton target price reform, improving the supply and demand pattern of the domestic cotton market and maintaining the smooth operation of cotton prices.

Zhang Wenmin believes that this year's domestic cotton planting area is expected to reduce, the probability of increase in production is small, but this does not mean that cotton prices will rise sharply, mainly domestic cotton stocks are relatively large, the price of international cotton and its products are also low, the domestic textile industry is still in the recovery stage.

The price of domestic cotton and its products will undergo a stage of repeated oscillations before the direction can be clearly defined.

On the whole, under the guidance of the target price policy, the domestic and foreign cotton market is gradually integrating, and the domestic cotton industry's living environment has been improved, and the future is out of the trough.