Implementation Of Pilot Cotton Target Price Reform

In 2015, the state continued to implement the pilot project of cotton target price reform. How do foreign businessmen see the target price of 19100 yuan / ton in 2015?

First, it is conducive to stabilizing the price of domestic and international cotton market in 2015/16, which is conducive to protecting farmers' practical interests in cotton planting, and the enthusiasm of farmers for "bottom price" needs to be improved. Judging from the international market, as the end of the global inventory will be high, China's about 11000000 tons of national cotton reserves remain to be released, and CCI will take all the about 1400000 tons of lint to the international consumer market. Therefore, USDA, ICAC, Cotlook and other institutions will have a low impact on the global cotton price in the year of 2015/16, which is a great impact on the income of cotton farmers. However, the Chinese government follows the policy of "target price" issued by the United States, Europe and China to maximize the protection of cotton farmers' interests. For Chinese farmers, the target price in 2015 will be the upper limit of income. It is understood that between March 27, 2015 and April, the US cotton subsidy amounted to 48.47 cents / pound, up 2.12 cents from last week. When LDP was 3.53, the US cotton subsidy intensity was significantly higher than that of China and other developing countries. The Chinese government should increase subsidies to agricultural growers in many ways, thereby having the pricing power and the right to speak of agricultural products. 2.

Two, 2014/15 year Cotton market Price is a bad thing. The target price level of cotton direct subsidy in 2015 is much higher than the expected 17000-17500 yuan / ton of foreign businessmen, traders and textile enterprises, which is basically in line with or even higher than some cotton farmers' expectations. Some plans are adjusted for planting cotton fields such as wheat, long staple cotton, walnut and so on. Irrigation conditions On the other hand, we need to consider the sales market (long distance cotton, seed cotton sale and transportation distance and cost increase). On the other hand, in 2015, Xinjiang cotton planting area or the survey intention in 1-3 months increased considerably. In 2015/16, the output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to reach 350-400 tons. The risk of the purchase, processing and operation of the cotton mill in 2015 is expanding. The rebound pressure of cotton prices in China is outstanding, ICE and the international spot market. Cotton price It is also difficult to highlight the tight encirclement and break away from the fundamentals.

Three, is conducive to China's cotton industry from heavy production and heavy clothing to heavy quality direction. 新疆棉一直是中國棉花產業高產量、高品質的代名詞,較地產棉高500元/噸以上司空見慣,但2012/13、2013/14連續兩年敞開、不限量收儲使新疆棉花品質有較大幅度下降(“三絲”、雜質、長度不足、馬值大等等問題),而2015年實行的“目標價格”補貼制度,讓棉花企業直接同下游客戶對接,棉花加工企業一方面要提高皮棉加工品質,嚴控“三級”,同時收購時分級分垛,嚴控水份和品級;另一方面隨時關注國際市場、ICE期貨及其它大宗商品市場的變化,隨時調整籽棉收購價格,棉花加工企業沒有國家“托底”,拿“真金白銀”做生意,因此風險放在第一位,隨新疆皮棉品質的大幅提升,將對2015/16年度美棉、中亞棉、巴西棉等的出口造成沖擊,美棉、澳棉順利進入中國紡企的難度加大。

Taking into account factors such as cotton production cost and income, market supply and demand, the State Development and Reform Commission issued the target price of cotton in 2015 at 19100 yuan per ton, approved by the State Council. This price is higher than the 17500 yuan / ton predicted by some foreign traders and importers, which is much higher than the spot price of domestic cotton since October 2014, which is higher than that of the current main ports in China, C/A SM 1-1/8 and American cotton 3000 yuan / ton. From the perspective of farmers, the target price in 2015 was 700 yuan / ton lower than that in 2014, which had little impact on the adjustment of planting structure, expansion of long staple cotton, spring wheat, walnut and so on. Cotton and Canadian enterprises generally believed that seed cotton purchase in 2015/16 would be more difficult. The game between cotton growers and cotton ginning mills would be more intense, but the price ceiling had been set.