Tenglong Aromatics Plant Fire To Establish PX Strong

With the high load operation of domestic PTA factories in the first two months, the current PX social inventory digestion is coming to an end.

At the end of March, oil price difference between PX and naphtha was below the break even point of US $300 / ton.

Domestic and overseas PX installations have many large-scale parking overhaul plans in the two quarter.

Tenglong aromatics, which occupies more than 1/10 of the domestic production capacity of the PX plant, was originally scheduled to overhaul in April 5th to restart the vehicle. However, the failure of the restart and the explosion accident again pushed the enterprise to the cusp of public opinion. Therefore, even if the latter troubleshooting, it will be more difficult to restart in a short time.

This will exacerbate the two quarter PX supply and demand expectations.

In addition, in the context of tighter environmental policy this year, there is a big uncertainty about whether the 1 million 600 thousand ton PX plant of CICC can be put into operation on schedule in May, and once its production is postponed, the two quarter will be delayed.

Tight supply and demand is expected to further intensify.

At the beginning of April, the framework of the Iran nuclear agreement was finally reached, and the White House spokesman said, "Iran.

The cancellation is phased. The first phase of the lifting of sanctions in Iran will take place in the middle of the next few months. This means that the impact of Iran oil on the market will be limited in the short term.

Saudi Arabia raised oil in Asia for second consecutive months.

This indicates that the price war within OPEC has come to an end.

Meanwhile, data from the US energy information administration show that US crude oil output has dropped 360 thousand barrels / day for the first time since the end of January. Once this week continues to decline, the US crude oil output will become stronger and stronger, and the rebound pattern of crude oil market will continue.

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Pure cotton yarn price is stable and weak.

In pure cotton yarn, the price of conventional pure cotton yarn is weak, and the middle and high branches keep stable. The compact spinning is better than the ring spinning, the ring spinning is better than the air spinning, and the top grade yarn is better than the low grade yarn.

The first quarter is coming, the traditional textile peak season has arrived. Can the cotton spinning peak season be reflected in this year? By comparing the price trend of pure cotton yarn in 2013, it has been found that the characteristics of the peak season of pure cotton yarn are obvious in recent years.

Among them, in 2013 1-5 months, C32S price remained at 26000-26200 yuan / ton, the price showed an upward trend; in 2014 1-5 months, the C32S price was 24500-25500 yuan / ton, and the price showed a downward trend, and the price of C32S was 20500-21000 yuan / ton in 2015.

From the perspective of price comparison, the price of C32S in 2015 decreased significantly compared with that in 2014, with a decrease of 4000 yuan / ton. However, C32S has not stopped at present, and is in a stable and negative state.

Combined with the downstream orders and raw material trend, it is estimated that the probability of C32S cotton yarn inversion in the first half of this year is unlikely to be maintained, and it may even be subject to a certain reduction.

The narrowing of the price difference between imported yarn and domestic yarn has become the norm.

Since 2014, the price difference between imported yarn and domestic yarn has narrowed down. The price of the imported yarn and the domestic yarn were basically flat at the end of 2014, and even appeared to hang upside down.

Take C32S as an example, the price of India yarn in April 8th is 20000-20400 yuan per ton, the price of domestic yarn is 20500-21000 yuan / ton, the difference between the two prices is between 400-500 yuan / ton, which is narrower than the past year's 1000 yuan / ton price difference.

Does the narrowing of the price difference mean that the imported yarn has no advantage? The problem has been discussed since last year.

According to the insiders, the textile factories that have been used to using imported yarn will still choose imported yarns under the condition of stable suppliers and stable quality of goods, because imported yarns still have advantages over domestic yarns in terms of strength and net weight settlement.

However, some textile factories have abandoned imported yarn instead of domestic yarn.

There is another point to note. Recently, some textile mills reflect the increasing quality of India cotton yarn, which affects the downstream customers to some extent.

In addition, this year, the market is concerned about bleached cotton yarn, which has attracted a lot of import traders and textile enterprises. In order to cater for the domestic demand for package bleaching, many traders and textile enterprises are turning their attention abroad, and Indonesian yarn has become the focus of attention.

Domestic yarn is profitable theoretically.

Since the second half of 2014, the profit of pure cotton yarn has been turning into profit in theory. When the new and old cotton is alternately, the profit margin is larger, and it reaches more than 1000 yuan per ton at some time. However, with the price of cotton yarn falling along with the price of cotton, the profit margin of cotton yarn is narrowed.

Conventional pure cotton yarn has a small profit, medium high or high grade pure cotton yarn profit is still available, the current JC60S profit margin is mostly above 1000 yuan / ton, but because of low output and small demand, its comprehensive profit is not necessarily cost-effective than producing 40 or 32 yarn.

In summary, the author thinks that the price of conventional pure cotton yarn has not yet fallen out of the weak market. It is expected that the probability of reverse market will not appear in the first half of 2015. Although the profit of medium and high count cotton yarn is acceptable, the downstream demand has not been effectively released, and is expected to be at a steady state. The bleaching and long staple cotton high count yarn are in the late stage or there is a certain room for improvement, but there is little room for prediction.

In addition, the price difference between conventional imported cotton yarn and domestic cotton yarn is not large, which will become a normal condition, while the import volume of imported 40 pack or bleached products will be increased compared with last year.

It is understood that individual textile enterprises value the packet bleaching market, and use Vietnamese textile enterprises to produce high C32S to pport to the Chinese market for sale, with considerable profits. Later this phenomenon may increase.