PTA To Inventory Process Is Expected To Accelerate

PTA futures are expected to remain strong in terms of cost side strength and later inventory expectations. The current focus of the whole PTA market is on how to digest large quantities of inventory.

We give the following two paths: first, the market share competition and price war between PTA factories continue, and in the case of larger futures margin, the 1505 contracts in recent months left long, resulting in a sharp drop in the spot price in the short term, and the PTA production profit has shrunk dramatically, so that the factory's internal coordination has reduced load to inventory.

Two, the upstream cost of raw materials has been favorable, the price has gone up sharply and squeezed the profits of PTA factories. The PTA factory has huge inventory and low price push up, resulting in the active load reduction to inventory after the cash flow compression.

The difference between the two is that the former is through the PTA spot price decline, squeezing PTA profits to achieve the purpose of reducing load to inventory, while the latter is squeezed by cost driving price increases.

Profit, to achieve the purpose of load reduction.

Dragon

The impact of the explosion on the PTA market is not a short-term factor, which will aggravate the tight supply and demand situation in the two quarter of PX and accelerate the PTA factory's inventory process through the second way.

For now, crude oil and

The raw material ends are favorable, and the PTA plant is more likely to go through the latter route.

In fact, the 4 million 500 thousand ton PTA plant of the Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company, which has been matched with Tenglong aromatics, has temporarily stopped its maintenance on the day of the explosion. On the other hand, the 1 million 200 thousand tonnes of Ningbo's Taiwan chemical plant has been planned to stop and repair in the near future. The domestic PTA plant operation rate will drop sharply to 60%, which is expected to speed up the PTA plant's de stocking process relative to the 80% load on the downstream polyester link.

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In 2015, the state continued to implement the pilot project of cotton target price reform in Xinjiang. How do foreign businessmen see the target price of 19100 yuan / ton in 2015?

First, it is conducive to stabilizing the price of domestic and international cotton market in 2015/16, which is conducive to protecting farmers' practical interests in cotton planting, and the enthusiasm of farmers for "bottom price" needs to be improved.

Judging from the international market, as the end of the global inventory will be high, China's about 11000000 tons of national cotton reserves remain to be released. India's CCI storage and storage of about 1400000 tons of lint will also be pushed to the international consumer market. Therefore, USDA, ICAC, Cotlook and other institutions have a low forecast of the global cotton price in the year of 2015/16, which is a great impact on the income of cotton farmers in various countries. However, the Chinese government follows the policy of "target price" issued by the United States, Europe and Brazil to maximize the protection of cotton farmers' interests. For Chinese Farmers, the target price in 2015 will be the upper limit of income.

It is understood that between March 27, 2015 and April, the US cotton subsidy amounted to 48.47 cents / pound, up 2.12 cents from last week. When LDP was 3.53, the US cotton subsidy intensity was significantly higher than that of China and other developing countries. The Chinese government should increase subsidies to agricultural growers in many ways, thereby having the pricing power and the right to speak of agricultural products. 2.

Two, it is bad for cotton market price in 2014/15.

17000-17500 yuan / ton, which is basically consistent with or even higher than that of some cotton growers in Xinjiang. Some plans are adjusted to cotton fields such as planting wheat, long staple cotton, walnut and so on. On the one hand, we need to consider irrigation conditions, soil conditions and planting habits. On the other hand, we need to consider the sales market (long distance cotton, seed cotton sale and pportation distance, and rising costs). In 2015, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton or the trend of investigation in 1-3 months increased considerably. In 2015/16, the output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to reach 350-400 million tons. The risks of cotton mill purchase, processing and operation are expanding in 2015. The rebound pressure of cotton prices in China is outstanding, and ICE and the international spot market cotton prices are also difficult to highlight the tight encirclement and break away from the fundamentals. The target price level of cotton direct subsidy in 2015 is much higher than that expected by some foreign businessmen, traders and textile enterprises.

Three, is conducive to China's cotton industry from heavy production and heavy clothing to heavy quality direction.

新疆棉一直是中國棉花產(chǎn)業(yè)高產(chǎn)量、高品質(zhì)的代名詞,較地產(chǎn)棉高500元/噸以上司空見慣,但2012/13、2013/14連續(xù)兩年敞開、不限量收儲(chǔ)使新疆棉花品質(zhì)有較大幅度下降(“三絲”、雜質(zhì)、長度不足、馬值大等等問題),而2015年實(shí)行的“目標(biāo)價(jià)格”補(bǔ)貼制度,讓棉花企業(yè)直接同下游客戶對(duì)接,棉花加工企業(yè)一方面要提高皮棉加工品質(zhì),嚴(yán)控“三級(jí)”,同時(shí)收購時(shí)分級(jí)分垛,嚴(yán)控水份和品級(jí);另一方面隨時(shí)關(guān)注國際市場(chǎng)、ICE期貨及其它大宗商品市場(chǎng)的變化,隨時(shí)調(diào)整籽棉收購價(jià)格,棉花加工企業(yè)沒有國家“托底”,拿“真金白銀”做生意,因此風(fēng)險(xiǎn)放在第一位,隨新疆皮棉品質(zhì)的大幅提升,將對(duì)2015/16年度美棉、中亞棉、巴西棉等的出口造成沖擊,美棉、澳棉順利進(jìn)入中國紡企的難度加大。

Taking into account factors such as cotton production cost and income, market supply and demand, the State Development and Reform Commission issued the target price of cotton in Xinjiang in 2015 at 19100 yuan per ton, approved by the State Council.

This price is higher than the 17500 yuan / ton predicted by some foreign traders and importers, which is much higher than the spot price of domestic cotton since October 2014, which is higher than that of the current main ports in China, C/A SM 1-1/8 and American cotton 3000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of farmers in Xinjiang, the target price in 2015 decreased by 700 yuan / ton compared with 2014. It has little impact on the adjustment of planting structure, expansion of long staple cotton, spring wheat, walnut and so on. Cotton and Canadian enterprises generally believe that seed cotton purchase in 2015/16 will be more difficult. The game between cotton growers and cotton ginning mills will be more intense in the purchase price, but the price ceiling has been set.