Will The Higher Authorities Introduce More Easing Policies?

From the perspective of foreign trade data, the problem of insufficient economic demand in China has not changed, and the downturn in external demand is still continuing. Therefore, we expect that the economy will soon become stable or falsified. Economic downturn Pressure is still great, and the need for further steady growth measures has not declined. Taking into account that the trade surplus narrowed to 3 billion 100 million US dollars in March, the factors restricting the fluctuation of the RMB have eased. It is expected that the two-way fluctuation elasticity of RMB is expected to rise further. If the US dollar index is stronger, the RMB may depreciate slightly.

Deng Haiqing, chief analyst of CITIC Securities's fixed income, believes that more stimulus policies will be launched at the top. The trend shows that China's economic recovery can not share the spillover effect caused by too many European and American economic recovery. In the medium to long term, economic recovery depends more on digging internal dynamics. Therefore, the sequential policy of mixed ownership of state-owned enterprises, local debt replacement and regional economic reshaping will be accelerated in both strength and rhythm. Central bank monetary policy will have more coordination measures, such as money market continues to guide loose, and even start the two quarter drop.

With regard to the bond market, our core view is that "the yield curve is steeped into a trend, and we stick to the logic of" moat "thinking allocation. Monetary market easing is certainty, and the spread of long and short term spreads is inevitable. It is impossible for the market to have 2014 unilateral bull markets, and there will not be a" money shortage bear market "with short end forcing the long end to rise sharply.

But Wang Jianhui, deputy director of the Securities Research Institute, holds different views. He believes that there should be too much expectation for the continued easing of policies. Now the policy space is significantly narrowing. The effect of short-term monetary policy is also decreasing. In the past several times, there has been no significant reduction in the financing cost of the market. There should not be too much expectation of loosening policy. The slow pace of economic growth will continue. At present, there are relatively few weapons in the short term, and there may not be any weapons in the future. The equipment in the arsenal is medium to long term.

However, Customs Huang Songping, spokesman for the General Administration, made it clear that this year will continue to implement policies and measures to support the steady growth of foreign trade. Wang Yang, vice premier of the State Council, stressed last week that the trend of foreign trade decline should be curbed as soon as possible, and that the deceleration from deceleration to sustained stall should be prevented. The outside world is expected to mean that the policy of steady growth in foreign trade will be overweight.

In spite of past experience, the import and export data in January and February are usually affected by the Spring Festival, and the data will be more valuable in March. But in March, the decline in exports of 15% was much lower than expected and before.

Spokesman for Customs General Administration Huang Song Ping The explanation given is that the data are affected by the Lunar New Year holidays and the weak global demand. In other words, he believes exporters face high labor costs and pressure on the RMB exchange rate. The decline in imports is due to the relatively downward pressure on the domestic economy. The import price of commodities is still in the doldrums, which sharply reduces the growth of import value.

Minsheng Securities believes that the decline in exports in March was not only due to the cardinal effect, but that the export data of all kinds of goods were down to varying degrees compared with February. The external reason for the sharp downward trend of exports is the weakness of the developed economies. The internal reason is that the effective exchange rate of RMB is too strong. Export growth is uncertain in the future.

CICC said that in March, it was subject to some interference. It also needed to wait for the April data to make more accurate judgments. The growth rate of exports was significantly negative growth, indicating that external demand has weakened. Taking into account the low base of exports in the first quarter of last year, export growth in the first quarter slowed down, reflecting the uncertainty of external demand.

The Spring Festival is late this year, and the number of effective working days in March is 2 days less than that of the same period last year. This can partly explain the decline in export growth. Due to the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the export growth rate fluctuated in the first quarter, and we need to wait for April data to make a clearer judgement.

Cao Yang, the financial market of Pudong Development Bank, said that the expected slowdown in exports may confirm the slowdown in the emerging market economy: Despite the impact of a high base number in the same period last year, the rate of decline in export growth is still greater than expected. After all, the growth in the US and the euro area has not dropped too much, so the growth of the emerging market is slowing down or an explanation, for example, the HSBC PMI index dropped sharply to 50.1 in March, and during the same period, the growth of our exports to ASEAN declined by 9%.