The Short Term Price Quotation Of PTA

The price of the PTA market in East China is strong, the market offer is sent to and near the 4850 yuan, and the delivery intention is 4800 yuan to the nearest and nearby. At present, the negotiation is held at 4850 yuan, and the atmosphere of negotiation is acceptable.

On Tuesday, the purchase of some suppliers in the spot market continued to take a big buy. At the same time, under the good news of some news, the TA price rose sharply, and the spot price rose sharply. The terminal production and marketing were driven by the factories, and the factories were piecemeal replenishment. However, the price difference between the contract and the spot was too large, and the price did not rise sharply.

The internal market is stable, and talks about 4850 yuan / ton, a few close to this close, the late trading high to 4880 yuan / ton.

PX rose 22 US dollars / ton, quoted us $917 / ton, and converted PTA cost to 5162 yuan.

Upstream PX and crude oil prices continue to rise, downstream polyester production and sales warming up, an average of about 150%, phased replenishment reappearance; at present, Xiang Lu PTA device has no hope of short-term opening, making Xiang Lu buy more PTA in the spot market.

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At this stage, the probability that PTA prices will continue to rise will be larger.

Steady, shipping quotations are scarce, sporadic.

650-660 U.S. dollars / ton, the delivery of 640-650 U.S. dollars / ton down, a few bonded in this section of the paction; late PTA, the external price continued to rise, shipping reportedly $690-700 / ton traded.

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In 2014/15, the supply and demand of global supply and demand exceed the demand, and the output is larger than the demand of 1 million 800 thousand tons, accounting for 7.45% of the annual consumption. This is the fifth consecutive year of continuous global stock raising in the fifth consecutive years. So what is the inventory consumption situation in China and other countries?

Global inventory consumption has risen for 6 consecutive years since 2009/10, and China's inventory consumption ratio almost repeats the same situation. Even with the exception of Chinese factors, the external consumption market outside China (hereinafter referred to as the "external market") is in a high level in the past 10 years in 2014/15, and has increased substantially over the past 10 years. Therefore, the supply and demand situation of the external market in 2014/15 is also grim.

China's cotton imports accounted for more than half of the world's cotton trade in 2011/12 (54.13%). Since then, the share of China's imports in Global trade has decreased by about 10% a year. The weakening of China's demand has put pressure on cotton prices in the peripheral market.

How big is this pressure? Let's take a look at the five major sources of cotton imports in China: the US, India, Australia, Uzbek and Brazil.

More than 70% of China's cotton is imported from the five major cotton exporters. Taking 2013/14 as an example, China's imports account for a large proportion of the five largest cotton exporters.

In the year of 2014/15, the export expectations of the five major cotton producing countries did not decrease much. Australia's cotton imports decreased to 1 million 590 thousand tons from 3 million 70 thousand tons in 2013/14, because of the strict 1% tariff quota control, the actual import could be far lower than the 1 million 590 thousand tons import expectation.

Therefore, from the perspective of Chinese factors, the probability of a big rise in the external market in 2014/15 is low.

Look at the global situation, and talk about China.

China's final inventory has been rising since 2011/12, and 2014/15's domestic inventory consumption is 185.6%.

So the question is, is China's extremely high inventory consumption ratio because of the national storage of cotton? If we do not consider the national reserve stock, is the domestic supply and demand really strained in 2014/15? According to the statistics of USDA 2015 February, the annual output of China's 6 million 530 thousand tons of 2014/15 and the import of 1 million 590 thousand tons will be increased by 653+159=812 tons per year. The annual demand and supply gap of China is 7 million 730 thousand tons, and the annual supply and demand gap is 812-773=39 million tons, that is, the domestic surplus reserve is still 390 thousand tons in 2014.