The A-Share Market With More Than 4000 Points Deterred Investors

Although the economy is relatively poor, the stock market still has opportunities. There are two main reasons: one is that the economy itself is in metabolism; The second is that the interest rate, that is, the price of capital, is going down, so from the perspective of capital allocation, the market is still attractive.

On April 16, Shanghai Guojin Center was surrounded by a group of high net worth people. In addition to preparing to subscribe to private equity products, they also hoped to get some guidance from the first-line fund managers present. In their view, although the rise is a high probability event after the market reaches 4000 points, the risk of adjustment or style change cannot be avoided.

The fund manager present was Feng Yonghuan, partner of Wangzheng Capital and chief investment officer. On the concern of all of you here, Feng Yonghuan said that we should not blindly pursue the rise above 4000 points, but rather explore the market opportunities of potential industries and individual stocks. In the next ten years, a large number of companies will experience industry integration. At present, they can plan ahead to capture the industry leaders who "go through an integration cycle from decentralization to centralization".

In Feng Yonghuan's view, after a sharp rise in the early stage, the market is now in a stage of serious differentiation in valuation. Some stocks are seriously overvalued, but others are very attractive. Their performance growth in two or three years is far more than the stock price.

As for how to screen out such outstanding stocks, Feng Yonghuan believes that from the top to the bottom of the industry, there are three investment directions: first, big consumption, including online tourism, online education, online entertainment, medicine, etc. These are all very certain sunrise industries in the next 20 to 30 years. For example, due to the emergence of the aging trend, the proportion of the elderly in China will account for 30% of the total population in 30 years, which is a huge driving force to promote the growth of the demand for medicine and medical care, and the size of this industry will be fully expanded in the future.

Second, environmental protection and new energy. Environmental pollution is a debt of economic development in the past three decades, which needs to be supplemented in the next decade or two.

Third, advantageous manufacturing industry. At present, there is a very popular word called "Internet++", which means that the Internet industry and traditional industries use Internet technology to transform traditional industries. After these industries are transformed by the Internet, their efficiency has been greatly improved, which is where their future potential lies. Now many people have launched a layout in the field of Internet medicine.

After talking about industrial opportunities, Feng Yonghuan further led the topic Individual stock field . He said that in traditional industries, the average growth of the industry is not high, but there are many companies growing fast, often more than five times the five years. In the past five years, 500 companies have more than doubled their profits, and 200 companies have increased more than five times their profits. A number of companies have outstanding competitiveness and have great advantages compared with their peers. For example, Dongfang Yuhong, the manufacturer of waterproof materials, had a revenue of just over 5 billion last year, accounting for about 3% and 4% of the market, ranking first in the industry, with only about 1 billion ranking second. However, most of its waterproof materials peers do not have a modern company operating technology at all, which is basically similar to the operation mode of small workshops. Therefore, Dongfang Yuhong stands out from the crowd and has competitive advantages.

For another example, in the 16 years from 1998 to 2014, Gree's income increased by about 30 times and its profit increased by 60 times. Why did it make such a big leap? That's because the air conditioning industry has a large market. In 1998, the market share was still scattered, but now the concentration is very high. From decentralization in 1998 to centralization in 2014, Gree accounted for almost half of the country. In addition, Midea and Haier, almost three monopolies, from decentralization to centralization, completed an integration. After the integration, the profit growth of the market winners is amazing. At this time point in 2015, there are many industries that are very dispersed, and their path is the same as that of the air conditioning industry in the past. Most of the time, the capital market is too short-sighted, always looking at one year or several months. If the time is prolonged, the effect is amazing.

however, Feng Yonghuan Some advice was also given to investors:

First of all, we should avoid blind people trying to find an elephant. For example, ten years ago, someone called on everyone to do grassroots research. He suggested going to the drugstore to see the production date of the drugs. If the drugs were produced a long time ago, they would sell poorly in the drugstore. If the production date was very new, they would sell well. It sounds reasonable, but the limitations are obvious. Because there are many pharmacies in China, one person can see one or two, but there are more than 10000. It is hard to say that these ten or more can represent the whole country.

The second is to avoid parroting. For example, according to the skyscraper theory, when skyscrapers are built, the economy will reach its peak, and the economy will begin to decline. This reverses cause and effect. Because Economics No, I don't have the strength to build a higher building, so that building becomes the tallest building, not the building born economy.