The Bull Market Is Firmly Rooted.

On the macro side, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Wednesday that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 7% yen, a 6 year low. The weak economic data reflected that the downward pressure on economic growth is still relatively large, and the policy of steady growth and structural adjustment needs to be intensified. In terms of liquidity, the central bank put 334 billion 700 million yuan into the open market short-term liquidity in the first quarter. On Tuesday, the reverse repo decreased by another 10 billion yuan. The winning rate has been cut down one after another. The central bank has adjusted the liquidity through the open market to further supplement and expand the basic currency, so that the monetary easing policy will continue to be overweight. The continuation of the policy and the expectation of RRR are still being strengthened, which is one of the inducements to touch up the A share market.

Moreover, the upsurge of market sentiment has not slowed down in the near future. China settlement latest weekly data show that the number of new stock accounts in two cities has been maintained for more than 1 million 500 thousand weeks for three weeks, and the number of new accounts in the two cities has increased by 153%. From the A share market, we can see that the average daily turnover of Shanghai stock market has been maintained at over 730 billion yuan in the ten trading days since the beginning of this month. In this stage, the stock index accumulated 8.97%, and the rising market sentiment and continuous fund push made the trend of index upside more stable.

Combined with market performance observation, the differentiation of market trend is manifested in Large and small stocks The style is quite different. In particular, the Shanghai index up to 4100 points, will undoubtedly exacerbate the huge volatility in the index. Judging from the market performance on Wednesday, the gem and small and medium board composite index has been substantially adjusted, with a decrease of 4.70% and 3.67% respectively on that day. Since the beginning of this month, the dynamic price earnings ratio of GEM has been more than 90 times higher than before. The overestimated pressure brought by the rapid rise of the early stage remains to be released. Looking back on the performance of ten trading days in the month, the gem composite index fell three, or seven, rose by 6.57%, and the intraday amplitude was 13.13%. This shows that the adjustment pressure of small cap stocks is the main obstacle to hinder the market.

　　 Stock index Up to 4000 points, the orderly rotation of hot spots has been pushing the pace of the index upside unchanged. There are two main lines that are very clear. On the one hand, heavyweights have always been the mainstay of index stability. Brokers, insurance and real estate sectors have promoted the effective entry of 4000 points in the early period of Shanghai stock index, followed by the second tier blue chip relay. On the other hand, with the concept of cooperation with the rise, the theme category still takes the concept of "one belt and one road", covering two cities. fta Themes such as concepts, regional themes, and reform of state-owned assets remain active.

Comprehensive technology trend observation, Shanghai index 4100 points near the high level of shock intensified, stock index close to short-term five day, ten day moving average, always maintain a moderate upward rate. According to past trend of history, even if there is a quick technical return in the stock index, if the volume of 1.5%-2.0% is not broken, the single day adjustment will be controlled within the reasonable scope of the 1.5%-2.0%. Shocks will be a strong adjustment category. Then, the re intervention of short term funds will also become a new kinetic energy to drive the latter market upside.

The second half of this week is expected to be an important stage in the evolution of short-term market. The continuity of hot spots and the adjustment pressure of small cap stocks are important indicators to observe the long and short results. Investors need to be reminded that, while firmly watching the bull market, we should not ignore the adverse signals in the short-term market, and guard against the shock of the upturn. In terms of operational strategy, we need to flexibly control the disposition of the positions, and the weak and stagflation stocks will decisively reduce their stocks in the rush stage of the stock index, and the strong varieties of the annual reports and quarterly reports can still be held patiently.

In recent years, the market has been rising, especially in this week. During the intensive period of new issue, the index continued to maintain a higher rate of upward trend, and the market continued to achieve a seven year high. However, the sharp adjustment of the small and medium sized board and the gem on Wednesday triggered the rapid withdrawal of the two cities' stock market near the end of the market, but this has little effect on the overall upward trend of the market. The weakness of economic data indicates that there is still room for policy underpinning, while the rising investor sentiment has been giving rise to orderly rounds of hot spots in the market. With the moderate release of the two cities, the trend of inertia upward trend of stock index will continue to maintain, and the stock index is expected to remain volatile at 4100-4300.