Short And Medium Term Stock Market Has Not Yet Reached The Top Of The Car.

4 the market will be adjusted in mid and late June, but it is not the end of the bull market. We should pay attention to the challenges brought by market style to undervalued and stagflated blue chips and the growth of small bills. This week's market performance and capital preference continue to confirm our view.

This week, the market shock increased, and style adjustment began: from constant to strong, to finding the last valuation depression; from pursuing good stories to digging true growth.

In this market environment, we advise investors not to get out of the car and harvest frequently.

From the following four dimensions, the bull market has not yet reached the top. Do not get out too early:

1., "steady growth" has not been reduced, the economy is bottomed out and the stock market has no top.

Just released data show that the first quarter GDP growth of 7%, GDP deflator -1.1%, the first quarter since the two quarter of 2009, deflation, fixed asset investment growth continued to slow down, manufacturing capacity and real estate downlink continue to drag the economy, import and export and social retail data show that domestic and foreign demand downturn.

The easing of certainty is high, and the directional easing policy such as PSL and refinancing is already on the way. The regional interest rate policy is also coming to an end. On the regional policy, the list of all the projects along the way is being announced. The planning for the coordinated development of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and the planning of the Yangtze River Economic Belt will also be announced in the two quarter. On the industrial policy, China made 2025 and Internet + will become an important driving force for the pformation and upgrading of the old economy and the rise of the new economy. The top-level design and supporting programs of the two industrial strategies will be announced in the two quarter. On the financial policy, the policies of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the pensions entering the market, the A share being included in the MSCI index and the QFII quota increase and so on. Looking ahead to the two or three quarter, the downward pressure on economy and inflation is not decreasing, and steady growth is expected to continue to exert momentum: in the context of intensified fiscal imbalance, monetary policy

Therefore, in the two quarter, the stock market's capital environment is still loose, and the risk free interest rate continues to boost the valuation of A shares.

2., the optimism of the market has not yet reached the 2007 high.

As the current retail trading volume accounts for nearly 90% of A shares trading volume, therefore, the new account opening and trading activity of retail investors are judged.

An important indicator of trends.

Judging from the number of new accounts, although the number of newly opened stock accounts in A shares has continued to turn into a new bull market, it is still not as high as 2007.

From the perspective of paction activity, accounts for A share pactions in the past ten months accounted for 43% of the effective accounts, while the proportion in the first ten months of 2007 was as high as 55%. As of the beginning of April, the position of A shares accounts for 38% of the effective accounts, which is also lower than the 2007 high level.

This shows that although

The enthusiasm for opening accounts is high, but there are still a large number of investors who have no trading accounts and hold a wait-and-see attitude. In the future, A shares will continue to rise, and the proportion of positions and trading accounts will still have 10% growth.

3., the enthusiasm for admission of institutional funds is not diminished.

The issue is expanding rapidly.

Recently, the number and scale of public offering funds have increased significantly. In the first quarter, the scale of public offering funds exceeded 250 billion yuan, up 48% from the fourth quarter of last year.

Of the 125 public offerings issued in the first quarter, there were about 100 partial stock funds, and more than 50 funds were raised early, and 1 billion of the funds accounted for 90%. Even tens of billions of funds appeared.

At the same time, while the two financial balance keeps increasing, the explosive growth of the stock classification fund further increases the leverage for the stock market. By the end of the first quarter, the share of the stock classification fund has reached the balance of 150 billion, an increase of 45% over the end of last year. In the first quarter, the fund company reported more than 100 sub level funds, and it is expected that the issuance of the graded fund will continue to grow strongly in the two quarter.

4., there is a stagflation undervalued sector that has not yet been liberated.

From the perspective of the "running around" path of Hong Kong stocks and B-shares, we find that after the growth of the gem accelerates the accumulated risk, it is a new logic to find stagflation market and underestimate the value of low-lying land.

From the perspective of stagflation logic, despite the large number of fingers in the bull market, but from the industry level, there is still a deep adjustment of the sector after the first quarter, which is still serious stagflation in the market, of which banking and non banking finance rose less than 20%, while the total A rose by about 43% during the same period.

From the undervalued logic, banks, home appliances, petrochemical, utilities, real estate and construction are still in the plate valuation depression.

From the above four dimensions, we judge that the short and medium term stock market has not yet reached the top. At this point, it is difficult to get out of the car. The undervalued and stagflation targets are becoming scarce products.